NHL Thursday best bets: Stanley Cup rematch among 5 plays with value

The 'dogs didn't bark for us on Tuesday. The Sharks were probably the better team in their matchup with the Red Wings, but a 2-2 game became 4-2 late, costing us a small winning night.

Meanwhile, the Canadiens and Maple Leafs - both showing value on paper - pulled off upsets that didn't make the cut for the best of the night, mainly because the idea of Montreal winning in Dallas and Toronto starting their (often tumultuous) California trip with a win against one of the league's best teams seemed far-fetched, even at a valuable price.

The cheat sheet

If you're thinking about betting any game on the slate, here's a look at the price you should be hoping to get on the moneyline for a valuable bet.

Best bets for Jan. 4

Blackhawks (+355) @ Rangers (-450)

We're not about to lay -400 in an NHL game, but we're not asking the Blackhawks to beat the Rangers at Madison Square Garden.

Our numbers give Chicago a 28.6% chance to win, and their +355 moneyline implies a 22% chance of winning. That 6.6% edge means it's a play worth making long-term, but it also means there's an edge in other head-to-head markets like the puck line.

I'm not a fan of betting +1.5 puck lines since the premise is that I expect it to be a one-goal game late and, even if we're right, we're leaving ourselves open to an empty-netter. However, with odds rooted in a moneyline this long, we can get +2.5 for just -135. I prefer to find the middle ground, backing the Blackhawks at a plus-money price - a number that acts as insurance if the Rangers score into a yawning cage in the dying seconds.

Pick: Blackhawks puck line (+2, +105)

Canucks (-145) @ Blues (+125)

Whether it's evidenced by an advanced metric like expected goals share (xG%) or their record, the Canucks are a visibly better team at home than on the road. Vancouver starts its longest trip of the season in St. Louis, where the Blues have a 5-3 record since firing head coach Craig Berube.

The Blues have boosted their xG% from below 45% to above 48% but have been somewhat unlucky in high-danger chance conversion rates since switching coaches.

By making them a considerable road favorite, the market's treating the Canucks like a team that creates more than 50% of the expected goals and high-danger chances when they hover right around the league average in both.

Pick: Blues moneyline (+125)

Lightning (-128) @ Wild (+110)

We successfully faded the Lightning on Tuesday, questioning their rating without Mikhail Sergachev and wondering if Andrei Vasilevskiy was in form. Vasilevskiy was far better than the numbers suggest in Tampa's 4-2 loss, but the Lightning appeared to wear down late - potentially a function of playing five defensemen with Sergachev out of the lineup.

Tampa's next stop is Minnesota. The Wild have hit the skids, losing three of four games following a nice run after they, too, fired their head coach. They've missed Kirill Kaprizov, but their rating in betting markets has reflected his absence. Meanwhile, the Lightning's rating hasn't taken much of a hit without Sergachev and Erik Cernak (who's questionable to play Thursday), which means there's value in picking the Wild.

Pick: Wild (+110)

Islanders (-115) @ Coyotes (-105)

Sure, goaltender Karel Vejmelka stopped 35 shots and the Coyotes were tied 1-1 with the red-hot Panthers in the third period. But we thought we were getting Connor Ingram on Tuesday since the Yotes hadn't played in a while.

Since Arizona stuck to its rotation, we should get Ingram Thursday night against a far less intimidating opponent in the Islanders. While we're not getting the Coyotes as underdogs, a pick'em price is good enough for a team we think wins at least 54% of the time.

Pick: Coyotes (-105)

Panthers (-115) @ Golden Knights (-105)

In this case, a regular season matchup against the team that beat you in the Stanley Cup Final can certainly be categorized as a revenge-seeking game.

With five straight wins, the now-healthy Panthers are cooking. They're returning to Las Vegas where Shea Theodore and Adin Hill aren't available to torment them as they did in June. Meanwhile, the Golden Knights are 2-6 in their last eight games and are also playing without William Karlsson. All these elements aren't accounted for in the market, with this game lined at nearly a pick'em.

Pick: Panthers (-115)

Friday cheat sheet

With just three games on the board, here are the moneylines to target if you're looking to bet them on Friday.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.