Wild Card Weekend: Best bets for Packers-Cowboys

We hear the echoes of Favre-Aikman, or even Rodgers-Romo, as the Packers and Cowboys - the best "historical franchise matchup" of Wild Card Weekend - get the cornerstone late Sunday afternoon time slot.

It wasn't always smooth, but Green Bay's transition from the Aaron Rodgers era is a first-year success. Meanwhile, an unusually consistent and relatively uneventful season in Dallas ended with an NFC East division title. But playoff failure - however Jerry Jones defines it - will surely send "America's Team" into offseason chaos again.

Packers @ Cowboys (-7, 50.5)

It became clear early on (the 49ers game notwithstanding) that the Cowboys had the pieces to be a championship contender. The betting market agreed, consistently but gradually boosting their rating. After all, Dallas covered the sizable point spreads in the eight games they won up to and including Thanksgiving. From Week 13 on, though, the Cowboys went 2-4 against the spread, and the four categorical losses came against playoff or near-playoff teams.

The ebb and flow of the Packers' season ended with a high tide, so their rating went up. They're now in the top of their range, which can be a precarious position.

Asking the Cowboys to win a playoff game by more than a score comes down to whether you're willing to trust Mike McCarthy. Giving up win probability via a handful of suboptimal moves can be the difference between winning easily and sweating out the final two minutes, and possibly why the line has fallen back down to -7.

Between the painted lines, some developing advantages for the Packers suggest they can keep up with the Cowboys, who we expect to move the ball with relative ease.

Jordan Love had an 18:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the final eight games of the season - seven of which featured a quarterback rating in the 100s. His exceptional play has potentially overshadowed the element that makes the Packers dangerous.

Aaron Jones struggled with his health throughout the season but finished the campaign with three straight games with at least 20 carries and 100 yards. A healthy Jones has finally provided the Packers with a threat on the ground that can open things up for Love even more.

Even in victories, the Cowboys allowed 6.3 yards per play to the Lions and Seahawks and 6.2 to the Eagles in their final three home games. That punches a hole in the idea that Dallas is a force at home.

Green Bay's had notable defensive players in and out of the lineup all season, but the signs suggest that Jaire Alexander, Darnell Savage, Quay Walker, and De'Vondre Campbell will all suit up together - a rarity in 2022-23. The Cowboys, meanwhile, aren't sure whether Johnathan Hankins and Stephon Gilmore will be 100%. The former is important in limiting Jones, and the latter is crucial in matching up with the Packers' depth at receiver - especially if they get Christian Watson back.

Either way, we're in for a likely shootout at AT&T Stadium, where a finally-clicking Packers offense can keep up with the Cowboys.

Pick: Packers (+7)

Player props

Dak Prescott: Over 34.5 passing attempts

In a game we think will be tightly played, expect Prescott to be throwing often, late, and likely with success. In recent comparable matchups with the Lions, Eagles and Seahawks, Prescott sent the ball through the air 41, 39 and 38 times, respectively.

Aaron Jones: Longest rush over 15.5 yards

After taking four weeks between November and December off to get healthy, Jones' explosiveness returned. He had rushes of 17+ yards in each of the four remaining games in the season. Likely to get another 20+ opportunities to weave through the Cowboys' front seven, Jones is a better than 50/50 bet to make it five in a row.

Anytime touchdowns

Aaron Jones (+115)

AJ Dillon doesn't seem ready to play, which paves the way for Jones to get the goal-line carries on Sunday. He's also a threat to score on a screen pass. And, since the only thing missing from Jones' recent stat lines is a touchdown, we'll bet he'll find the end zone one way or another at better than even money.

Bo Melton (+440)

Every week, it seems the Packers are missing a receiver - either before kickoff or midway through a game - but Bo Melton has filled all holes nicely. His snap share increased steadily as the injuries piled up, and he caught 11 passes for 162 yards in the final two games, even getting a pair of carries in the season finale. The rookie out of Rutgers should, at long odds, be one of Love's targets to score.

Jordan Love (+750, 0.4 units)
Dak Prescott (+315, 0.6 units)

Let's split a unit on the mobile - but not run-first - quarterbacks to score.

Love has scored in four games this season, or 23.5% of the time. That implied probability would translate to odds of +326. So, +750 is a mathematical steal.

The more important the game, the more likely Prescott is to take it himself. He recorded 25 carries in five contests against the Bills, Dolphins, Chargers (in Week 18) and Eagles (twice), and he's relied more on his own legs without Ezekiel Elliott's goal-line presence.

Brandin Cooks (+190)

Speaking of good math, the market hasn't caught up on Prescott's faith in Brandin Cooks. The latter has scored in half of his games, but three-quarters of Cooks' yardage and six of his touchdowns have come in the last nine games. So these odds should be closer to CeeDee Lamb's -140 price tag than they are.

Mega-long-shot SGP

If you promise to play all your other bets as single bets this postseason, we'll go for ice cream, metaphorically speaking. The same game parlay is the high-calorie treat of sports betting but, for a couple of bucks, we'll take a shot with the following:

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.