NFC championship betting: Differing styles create high-scoring potential

Backing the Packers in the divisional round was based on a concern that the 49ers might be overvalued and that, after three weeks without meaningful competition, San Francisco's offense might have a tough time finding a rhythm.

Meanwhile, expecting the Lions to cover as favorites over the Buccaneers was predicated on a handful of things that changed for Tampa, mainly going from a home win over the Eagles to a trip to Motor City.

The 49ers were off-kilter against Green Bay, and the Lions took advantage of Tampa's low ceiling. That combination of results - plus a concerning injury for San Francisco - might create a different point spread than expected and a level of uncertainty not found in the AFC Championship Game.

Lions @ 49ers (-7.5, 51.5)

The flip-flopping between -6.5 and -7 didn't last long, as the point spread has found its way to a flat 49ers -7. Perhaps that's with the hope that Deebo Samuel's shoulder injury isn't enough to keep him out.

San Francisco didn't look like a team that should be rated as historically great last week and certainly not to the level to push this week's line through a key number, even if this line might have closed higher during the latter portion of the regular season.

Anyone trying to tell you that Samuel's potential absence doesn't change how effective the 49ers' offense can be is kidding themselves. After all, the 49ers went 0-4 against the spread, winning outright just once, without Samuel this season. However, over the last two seasons, here's their offensive output in games Samuel has missed:

* YPP = yards per play

Outside of the fiasco in windy Cleveland, where Christian McCaffrey was also hurt, there aren't any red flags. The offense didn't look its usual self last week, but is that due to Samuel's absence or Brock Purdy's discomfort in poor weather? That's also something Jared Goff has had struggles with in his career. Concern about either quarterback in suspect conditions isn't necessary, as AccuWeather describes this Sunday in Santa Clara as "a great afternoon for football."

If the 49ers' offense, in more balmy conditions, can still flourish against a porous Detroit pass defense, what about Goff and the Lions?

Having watched Aaron Jones repeatedly gash the Niners on the ground for 108 yards at better than five yards per carry, the Lions might have success against the worst run defense they'll have faced this postseason. San Francisco, usually with big leads by halftime, has rarely had to deal with a team committed to running the ball, and no one has a one-two punch like David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.

These are the top two teams in the league at converting red-zone appearances into touchdowns, and neither team has been good at preventing them. It could be argued that the Packers lost last week's game at San Francisco when they couldn't convert early red-zone trips, and that game would have likely gone over the game total of 50.5 if Anders Carlson had made a 41-yard field goal.

Kyle Shanahan continued to show that he's painfully conservative in his decision-making, and Matt LaFleur's not exactly a gambler, but Dan Campbell's willing to accept the calculated risks an underdog should be taking. With at least one head coach playing it fast and loose and two highly efficient red-zone offenses in good conditions, we can expect the scoring we should have had last week at Levi's Stadium - all while not having to worry about where the point spread goes. Plus, we'll consider it a bonus if Samuel can suit up to help increase scoring potential.

Pick: Over 51.5 points

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.