Super Bowl LVIII betting: Making our pick to win

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Just because it's THEIR Super Bowl doesn't mean it has to be OUR Super Bowl. We don't have to risk our bankroll on a single result just to manufacture our own championship moment with dollar bills falling like confetti in the living room.

But it is THE Super Bowl, and we're given two weeks of lead-up for one game, so there's ample betting opportunity within a menu of betting markets a mile long. So we'll attack those as the week goes on, digging into matchups and pricing. You have to start somewhere during football's longest week, and since no one's ever taken it easy on the first night in Las Vegas, we might as well start with who to bet to win Super Bowl LVIII and work from there.

Like any other game, our job is to recognize value and make the bet that gives us the most bang for our buck.

Chiefs vs. 49ers (-2, 47.5)

On the surface, we're back to where we started with the point spread for Super Bowl LVIII. The 49ers opened just shy of a field-goal favorite, but the Chiefs were the target of the first influx of money, pushing the line down to -1. Since the initial reaction to the conference championships, the line has crept back up, leaving us to wonder whether it'll touch -3.

While the betting line was officially created when the 49ers recovered the Lions' onside kick, had we known throughout the season that Kansas City would face San Francisco in Las Vegas, we could've tracked the line all year.

For example, in Week 2, the Chiefs were getting back Travis Kelce and Chris Jones, while the 49ers had just crushed the Steelers during their opener in Pittsburgh. They were rated as the two best teams in the NFL and a virtual pick'em matchup on a neutral site.

By mid-December, the Chiefs encountered some struggles, while the 49ers were considered historically good in the betting markets. A Week 15 matchup at the Super Bowl site might have had the 49ers favored by 4.5 points.

Even going into last week, the 49ers would've been favorites of more than a field goal, but after another week where the Chiefs beat a quality team on the road and San Francisco got a scare - failing to cover as a big favorite versus Detroit - the perception of each team, relative to each other, has tightened.

It's not hard to understand why there was initial fervor in buying the Chiefs. Winning in Baltimore was impressive. But taking a step back, the Ravens were complicit in helping K.C. to that win. Going away from their offensive identity - throwing on 20 of 25 first-and-10 plays - Baltimore didn't commit to testing the Chiefs' previously weak run defense.

Even with that bizarre strategy, the Ravens were inches away from a touchdown that would've brought them within a field goal, with two more trips into field-goal range still to come. In keeping with season-long second-half offensive struggles, Kansas City didn't score in the final 30 minutes - a fact that would've been brought up endlessly had the Ravens executed a comeback that was theirs for the taking.

Instead, only the 49ers scored a big comeback on championship Sunday, with 27 consecutive points in the second half. This is the primary concern when facing a top team: that no lead is insurmountable. Yet, the perception of San Francisco has dipped.

Unlike every previous game since that Week 1 win in Pittsburgh - when the 49ers were favored by a point - San Francisco's not being asked to win by a significant margin. In fact, out of respect for the experience and artistry of Patrick Mahomes, we won't ask the 49ers to win by any prescribed margin.

With a moneyline price depressed due to many bettors' interest in backing the Chiefs to cash as an underdog for the third straight time, we'll take the Niners to win the game, paying little more than we would if this was lined as a pick'em.

Pick: 49ers moneyline (-125)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.