Super Bowl LVIII betting: Attacking passing props for Purdy, Mahomes
Earlier in Super Bowl week, we looked at the betting market for the game itself. If you have a side to bet, you can tailor your prop betting portfolio to fit that result, but ideally, there will be a path to prop victory even if the side or total doesn't come through.
This quarterback matchup features a significant discrepancy in resumes. Patrick Mahomes goes into Sunday looking for a third championship and Super Bowl MVP, while Brock Purdy is still trying to answer questions from his most stubborn critics and hasn't finished a playoff game away from home. That dichotomy might be creating some value in the passing markets, which raises two questions:
- Are you willing to fade Mahomes?
- Are you willing to trust Purdy?
Patrick Mahomes: Under 262.5 passing yards
The Chiefs started the season 6-1, and in those seven games, Mahomes threw for more than 262 yards five times. Since leaving for Germany to take on the Dolphins, Mahomes went over this prescribed yardage total three times in his final nine games and then went 0-for-3 in the playoffs. This shows the difference in the Chiefs' offense compared to last year when Mahomes was 11-6 to the over.
This isn't a bet against an excellent Mahomes performance; the Chiefs superstar is just capable of playing a legacy-building game without posting gaudy numbers. In last year's Super Bowl win over the Eagles - with a back-and-forth game script - Mahomes had three touchdowns and a QBR of 96.3 (his best of the season). He also threw for just 182 yards. During this playoff run, Mahomes has recorded three of his top four games by QBR, and his yardage totals were 262, 215 and 241.
Kansas City's offense kept the Ravens' possessions to a minimum in the first half of the AFC Championship Game, but against a 49ers offense that led the league in yards per play, the Chiefs might be on the sidelines more than many people expect. So, as he has throughout the playoffs, Mahomes can play an efficient game, but Super Bowl LVIII would have to be a 49ers blowout for him to go over this total.
Brock Purdy: Over 0.5 interceptions (-125)
You're welcome to back Purdy via betting the overs in his various betting markets, but the 49ers could conceivably have the same game plan as the Bills did in the divisional round against the Chiefs: Run, run, and run some more.
I'm more interested in betting on the Chiefs' pass defense - coordinated by Steve Spagnuolo - to create enough confusion for Purdy to make a mistake. Against the Packers, a cold drop by Darnell Savage saved Purdy from a disastrous potential pick-6, and against the Lions, Malcolm Rodriguez stepping in front of a pass intended for Deebo Samuel fooled Purdy.
After the Niners' 5-0 start, where Purdy didn't throw an interception, he went pick-free in five of the next 11 games. Those clean outings, however, came against teams in the bottom half of the league in pass defense - the Buccaneers, Jaguars, Eagles, Cardinals, and Commanders. Many of those games were low-pressure blowouts early in the second half. The Chiefs, meanwhile, were second in opponent yards per pass attempt allowed this season.
Total incompletions: Under 22.5 (-105)
Purdy finished the season atop the league in QBR and second in pass-completion percentage (69.4%), while Mahomes tied for sixth in pass-completion percentage (67.2%). At a somewhat conservative expected completion rate of 67%, the two quarterbacks would need to combine for 70 pass attempts this Sunday to produce 23 incompletions. Their pass attempt markets suggest that Mahomes (36.5) and Purdy (30.5) will combine for 67 throws on average.
Given both Andy Reid's and Kyle Shanahan's willingness to hand the ball off in an attempt to take advantage of the opposing defense's weakness, and the way that creates beneficial passing situations for Mahomes and Purdy, the ball shouldn't be on the field as often as this number suggests.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.