Super Bowl LVIII receiving props: Kittle among 4 pass-catchers to excel
Earlier in Super Bowl week, we looked at the betting market for the game itself. If you have a side to bet, you can tailor your prop betting portfolio to fit that result, but ideally, there will be a path to prop victory even if the side or total doesn't come through.
With so many conceivable options for "most receiving yards," it's the most interesting of the superlative markets for Super Bowl LVIII after the quarterbacks dueling for most passing yards. Also, Christian McCaffrey is appropriately the heavy favorite for most rushing yards. But in a one-game scenario, anything can happen. It helps if it's happened before.
George Kittle (+700)
Let's ignore a meaningless Week 18 game and the 49ers' contest in Arizona when McCaffrey fell, got up, and caught a 41-yard touchdown pass on the way to leading the Niners in receiving. That means San Francisco's trio of primary pass-catchers - Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle - have each led the team in receiving yards five times. However, they're not given the same odds to have the most yards Sunday.
Kittle added a sixth team-leading receiving game in the divisional round against the Packers, whose defensive backs are better than anyone the Niners have in coverage at the second level. In the regular season, 536 of Kittle's 1,020 total yards came in those five contests (while averaging just 44 yards in the other 11). When he's in the game plan, he goes off.
Against the Chiefs, whose cornerbacks L'Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie are among the best duos in the league, there's reason to believe Kittle should be in the mix more than usual. Rather than betting Kittle to go over his prescribed total of 47.5 at -115, why not take him to lead the game in receiving at +700? Those are much longer odds than his teammates and the Chiefs' Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice.
Rashee Rice: Longest reception over 21.5 yards
We have Patrick Mahomes under on his pass yards, but we're trying to thread a needle here by going over Rice's longest reception - those two things should have an anti-correlation.
However, we can try this because Mahomes has been finding Rice for chunk yardage plays despite the signal-caller rarely going over his passing yards through the season's stretch and into the playoffs. The rookie has a reception of over 21.5 yards in eight of his last 14 games, while Mahomes only went over his total in five of 14. Mahomes' depressed totals haven't hurt Rice's chances for a big gain.
The Chiefs frequently use Rice on crossing routes, hoping he can get loose after the catch. The 49ers struggled to tackle Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown in the secondary last contest.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Over 19.5 receiving yards
Going into the playoffs, everyone complained that Mahomes' targets regularly dropped balls. Marquez Valdes-Scantling had that reputation throughout his career, but he's come down with three contested passes in the last two games. Suddenly somewhat reliable and on the field for 70% or more of the snaps, Valdes-Scantling's low number is too enticing to pass up, with Mahomes willing to look his way deep down the field.
Deebo Samuel: Over 4.5 receptions (-130)
There's no other way to put it: I think this will be a big game for Deebo Samuel. Given his style of play, there's usually an element of keeping Samuel healthy in the 49ers' play-calling. They can't overuse him during the regular season. Samuel caught two passes on the opening two drives in San Francisco's first playoff contest before suffering an injury. The ailment could have set him up for a conservative workload in the next matchup against the Lions, but he recorded eight catches on nine targets.
The 49ers want to get Samuel the ball and make the Chiefs' good coverage secondary tackle one of the league's toughest players to bring down. Samuel had five-catch performances in the first 49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl and the 2022 regular-season rematch, and he's posted at least 12 combined targets and carries in every playoff game since Super Bowl LIV.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.