Super Bowl LVIII betting: Best wagers to make in rushing prop markets
Earlier in Super Bowl week, we looked at the betting market for the game itself. If you have a side to bet, you can tailor your prop betting portfolio to fit that result, but ideally, there will be a path to prop victory even if the side or total doesn't come through.
Chiefs: Under 23.5 rushing attempts
Neither the Chiefs (4.5 yards per carry allowed) nor the 49ers (4.3) were in the top half of the league's run defenses, so both sides are theoretically vulnerable. However, playing in perfect conditions for the first time this postseason, the Chiefs probably don't want to take the ball out of Patrick Mahomes' hands (unless they have a big lead like they did in Baltimore).
In a back-and-forth game in Buffalo, Kansas City crept over this total, but the Chiefs got a boost from two outliers - six Mahomes scrambles and a handoff to Mecole Hardman.
During the regular season, the 49ers excelled in first-half offense, particularly during the scripted portion of their play-calling. If they grab an early lead, the Chiefs may be less likely to commit to a high-volume run game.
Patrick Mahomes: Under 25.5 rushing yards
In a big game, Mahomes is more likely to pull the ball down and take off. However, that doesn't necessarily translate to yardage. Against the Ravens and Bills, Mahomes ran six times each but didn't crack 25 yards even before kneel-downs.
Nursing an ankle injury before Super Bowl LVII, Mahomes shocked the Eagles with his mobility for 44 rushing yards, but San Francisco's linebacker duo of Dre Greenlaw and speed demon Fred Warner should be more prepared for the threat of Mahomes' legs on high-leverage downs. In their last meeting during the 2022 regular season, Mahomes didn't have a rushing attempt.
Deebo Samuel: Over 16.5 rushing yards
Like Mahomes, Deebo Samuel becomes a bigger rushing threat in big games. Getting injured early in the divisional round game meant Samuel couldn't have that impact against the Packers, and his questionable availability against the Lions might have kept his rush attempts down.
Now that he's got a clean bill of health, the Niners should give Samuel the ball out of the backfield more often. The 49ers' biggest games during the season were against the Rams, Seahawks (twice), Eagles, and Cowboys. He had 18 carries for 106 yards in those five games after 13 totes in three playoff games last year. Facing a vulnerable run defense, Samuel could go over on a single big carry if the Chiefs' secondary can't tackle.
Over 2.5 rushing touchdowns (+150)
We cashed a bet on Mahomes to go under 1.5 passing touchdowns in the AFC title game, citing the Chiefs' increased usage of Isiah Pacheco near the goal line since mid-November, and the 49ers just allowed the Lions to score three rushing touchdowns.
Christian McCaffrey is a good bet to contribute, and if it isn't him near the goal line, Kyle Shanahan's likely to give it to Samuel, Elijah Mitchell, or even Kyle Juszczyk. Brock Purdy - a popular bet to go over his rushing total - could score as well.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.