Super Bowl LVIII betting: Best defense, special teams props
Earlier in Super Bowl week, we looked at the betting market for the game itself. If you have a side to bet, you can tailor your prop betting portfolio to fit that result. But ideally, there'll be a path to prop victory even if the side or total doesn't come through.
After a season replete with player prop betting for yardage, completions, receptions, and touchdowns, the Super Bowl brings the opportunity to get deep into the defensive side of the ball.
Trent McDuffie: Over 4.5 tackles (+110)
Trent McDuffie averaged five total tackles per game this season, good for second on the Chiefs - something of an unusual achievement by a cornerback.
McDuffie hasn't had more than four tackles this postseason, which might be why he's an underdog to go over in Super Bowl LVIII. However, those matchups didn't require a cornerback to be involved in tackling as much as Sunday's will.
It was too cold for Miami's offense to function on the wide sides of the field. The Bills ran the ball 39 times - mostly between the tackles - while the Ravens didn't use their vaunted rushing attack, opting for a more vertical approach. The 49ers - with Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel - should be expected to test the Chiefs' perimeter defense in perfect offensive conditions.
Will the opening kickoff result in a touchback? No (+230)
The trendiest Super Bowl prop bet of 2023 left "No" bettors disappointed for the second straight year when Harrison Butker booted the much-ballyhooed commemorative kicking ball into the end zone. It was the second straight touchback after 26 of the previous 28 championship-opening kicks were returned.
Touchbacks are more likely with the kickoff having moved to the 35-yard line. However, neither Butker's boot last year nor Evan McPherson's kick to open Super Bowl LVI was a soaring blast. The Rams instructed Brandon Powell to stand on the goal line and not return any kick that landed more than two yards deep in the end zone. The Eagles were 30th in kickoff returns last year and Boston Scott made little effort to jump in front of Butker's knuckling line drive.
The Chiefs' strong-legged kicker had a hard time kicking the non-broken-in ball in Super Bowl LVII, and Jake Moody had a 60% touchback rate this season. Needing an implied win probability of better than 30% to give "No" a positive expected value, we'll make the first play of the game interesting by backing the underdog side.
49ers: No successful field goal (+375)
The 49ers are painfully conservative. That usually means Kyle Shanahan is more likely to take a field goal instead of risking a turnover on downs. However, perhaps he'll be less interested in leaving key moments to Moody's foot after watching the rookie kicker miss a field goal attempt in every playoff game.
Additionally, the 49ers didn't have a field goal in five of 17 regular-season games, or 29.4% of the time. At +375, there's an implied 21.1% chance that San Francisco won't make a field goal. So, even though it's a moderate long shot, there may be an edge at these odds.
Many field goals are a function of settling for three points at the end of a half, but the Chiefs are excellent at taking the time down before halftime.
Finally, an overtime field goal is less likely with the relatively new rules that put a premium on scoring a touchdown.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.