NHL betting insights: How the market reacted to Rielly's suspension

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Toronto fans and media alike were up in arms when Morgan Rielly found out he was headed to New York to answer for his poor man's impression of Dale Hunter, with at least a five-game suspension looming.

On the surface, the Maple Leafs couldn't afford to be without their unequivocally best defenseman for 6% of their season. In reality, it didn't matter, as Toronto won all five games Rielly was banned for.

The betting market was just as confused as anyone. You can say that a stretch of Blues-Flyers-Ducks-Blues-Coyotes wasn't the trickiest part of the schedule to maneuver through, but Rielly's frustration stemmed from a loss to the Senators, so wins were no sure thing.

The Leafs closed shy of -200 in the first game without Rielly against St. Louis, with Mitch Marner and John Tavares out with an illness. The market was undaunted (as long as Auston Matthews and William Nylander were available) against a team held with such little regard.

Marner and Tavares came back two nights later against the Flyers, but the Leafs were priced 5% shorter than usual, at -137 (57.8% implied win probability) on open. They would close -156 (60.9%) for a 3% change, still shorter than the -170 moneyline we'd expect if the two teams were at full strength.

Oddsmakers learned something from the lead-up to a 4-3 Leafs overtime win - that without Rielly meant a 2% downgrade. Instead of being around -300 against the Ducks, Toronto's moneyline closed at -270. Of course, the Leafs scored just shy of a billion goals on Anaheim, so no price was too high.

In the fourth game without Rielly, the Leafs opened -165 and closed -155 (a fair price), a 1.5% adjustment in their win probability. After another win over the Blues, the Leafs opened -210 for Wednesday's game with Arizona. They closed -190 (-2.2%) at theScore Bet.

Maple Leafs' even-strength metrics with/without Morgan Rielly

You can see how playing poor teams affected Toronto's metrics. Only their even-strength high-danger chances totals went down. Through a five-game sample size, the betting market thinks the Maple Leafs are just 2% less likely to beat a below-average team. We often see that the better the competition, the more significant that effect might get baked into the odds. Hopefully, for Toronto, the team won't have to find out what the market thinks that might be.