March Madness futures: Final Four and championship odds
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We've finally made it. The bracket is out and 68 teams' eyes are set on cutting down the nets in Phoenix. There's nothing like holding a bracket in your hand, picking first-round upsets, and identifying a Cinderella squad.
The NCAA Tournament is the most wagered-on sports event of the year. While we'll have picks for every round, let's start by forecasting what might happen over the next few weeks. Here are the odds for each region and the top teams' outlooks.
East Region odds
TEAM (SEED) | ODDS TO WIN REGION | ODDS TO WIN TITLE |
---|---|---|
UConn (1) | +105 | +375 |
Auburn (4) | +300 | +1600 |
Iowa State (2) | +320 | +1600 |
Illinois (3) | +750 | +2500 |
BYU (6) | +1600 | +5000 |
San Diego State (5) | +2800 | +7500 |
FAU (8) | +3300 | +10000 |
Drake (10) | +6600 | +20000 |
Northwestern (9) | +6600 | +30000 |
Washington State (7) | +6600 | +10000 |
All odds via theScore Bet
Three of last year's four Final Four teams are in the East Region (UConn, Florida Atlantic, and San Diego State). UConn has been the country's best team all season. It's well-coached, offensively prolific, defensively sound, and experienced. No team has won back-to-back NCAA Tournament titles since Florida in 2006-07, but no defending champion since then has been as good as UConn.
While I don't see FAU or Northwestern challenging the Huskies in the Round of 32, a Sweet 16 matchup against Auburn would be UConn's toughest test in the region.
Auburn has a top-10 defense and offense, according to KenPom. Johni Broome can battle with UConn's Donovan Clingan inside, and the Tigers' stout perimeter defense can stall the Husikes' attack.
An Auburn-UConn Sweet 16 showdown would be a meeting of the minds between two of the sport's smartest, toughest coaches. UConn's Dan Hurley knows how to win in March. While Auburn's Bruce Pearl has had some early exits, he's also made deep runs with the right squad. I'd take Auburn to advance to the Final Four at +300.
South Region odds
TEAM (SEED) | ODDS TO WIN REGION | ODDS TO WIN TITLE |
---|---|---|
Houston (1) | +140 | +550 |
Duke (4) | +400 | +3000 |
Marquette (2) | +500 | +2000 |
Kentucky (3) | +600 | +2000 |
Wisconsin (5) | +1200 | +7500 |
Florida (7) | +1600 | +5000 |
Nebraska (8) | +1800 | +20000 |
Texas Tech (9) | +2000 | +20000 |
James Madison (12) | +5000 | +10000 |
Houston is the rightful favorite to come out of the South region thanks to the program's dominance. However, there's another team I'm eyeing down the oddsboard.
Kentucky has been a roller coaster. Its volatility creates a ton of uncertainty when entering a win-or-go-home tournament. But the Wildcats' talent and offensive firepower are as good as anyone's in the nation. Their problem is their atrocious defense, which would probably struggle to stop a middle school team.
Can you trust Kentucky's offense to carry it to the Final Four? It's a risky proposition, but one I'm willing to make at +600. John Calipari has insinuated he has to - and will - tweak the defense. If the Wildcats have another level defensively, even a small one, they'll be equipped to make a run.
West Region odds
TEAM (SEED) | ODDS TO WIN REGION | ODDS TO WIN TITLE |
---|---|---|
Arizona (2) | +150 | +1100 |
North Carolina (1) | +215 | +1300 |
Baylor (3) | +600 | +4000 |
Alabama (4) | +1000 | +2500 |
Saint Mary's (5) | +1000 | +7500 |
Michigan State (9) | +2000 | +10000 |
New Mexico (11) | +2000 | +10000 |
Nevada (10) | +3000 | +15000 |
Miss. State (8) | +3300 | +15000 |
Clemson (6) | +4000 | +20000 |
This could be the region of chaos with a lower-seeded program making a deep run. Purdue, UConn, and Houston have been undisputedly the best teams since November. There's a drop-off after those three, which theoretically means the top seeds in this region could be more susceptible to an upset.
Alabama has the country's second-best offense, but its defense isn't even ranked in the top 110. Baylor has been an under-the-radar program, had a great year in the Big 12, and has an experienced coach. This region could end up being chalk, ending with an elite eight matchup between North Carolina and Arizona. Nevada is a good long-shot candidate in a potentially wacky region. The Wolf Pack were red-hot at the end of the regular season, winning 10 of their last 11 games.
Midwest Region odds
TEAM (SEED) | ODDS TO WIN REGION | ODDS TO WIN TITLE |
---|---|---|
Purdue (1) | +155 | +700 |
Creighton (3) | +300 | +2500 |
Tennessee (2) | +300 | +1800 |
Gonzaga (5) | +550 | +7500 |
Kansas (4) | +1100 | +4000 |
Texas (7) | +1800 | +12500 |
TCU (9) | +2500 | +15000 |
Oregon (11) | +5000 | +15000 |
South Carolina (6) | +5000 | +20000 |
Colorado State (10) | +6600 | +20000 |
I've been high on Creighton all season. It has a chance to avenge its bogus Elite Eight loss last season and earn a trip to the Final Four. Tennessee is a championship contender, too. Rick Barnes' previous early tournament exits have people skeptical about a Volunteers run. However, Tennessee is usually a defensive-oriented group. Dalton Knecht's presence as one of the best scorers in the nation creates a more stable offensive approach.
However, Purdue is lurking on the other side of the bracket. The Boilermakers' redemption tour starts in the Round of 64, but they nailed their opening act. Purdue lost just four games all season and is better than last year's team that suffered the biggest upset in NCAA Tournament history.
The Boilermakers don't just rely on Zach Edey. He's surrounded by elite perimeter shooting, which makes Purdue qualified to make a championship run.
The Boilermakers shot 32% from three last season. It's shooting 40% this season, the country's second-best mark. Forget the Midwest Region, Purdue will win the national title (+700).
When searching for a title winner, always look at the higher seeds and the programs near the top of the oddsboard. Reserve the long-shot bets for teams to make the Final Four.
Twelve of the last 16 champions have been a 1-seed. Although UConn was a 4-seed last year, it had the eighth-best odds to cut down the nets. This year, Purdue (third-best odds) will complete its revenge tour.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.
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