March Madness regional betting preview: How the West will be won

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With Connecticut, Houston, and Purdue excelling all season, the West Region is supposed to be the one that could be the customarily wacky quadrant. While that's certainly possible, with intriguing teams seeded 7-11, we're more likely to get a pair of powerhouses in a somewhat chalky regional final than most people think, with one team boasting a higher ceiling.

Odds to win the West Region

We've included a point-spread rating for each team with its odds of making the Final Four. The difference in teams' ratings can help project a fair point spread for a potential matchup later in the tournament.

First-round bets to make

(9) Mississippi St. vs. (8) Michigan St. (-1.5, 130.5)
March 21, 12:15 p.m. ET

We're not wasting any time with a bet for the first game Thursday.

You'll hear the tired axiom "January, February, Izzo" expounding the March virtues of Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo, who's made the Final Four roughly every fifth year since winning the title in 2000. However, when you make the tournament every season since 1998, there will also be some rough results.

With a ShotQuality "Rim & 3" rate of 71% (349th nationally), the Spartans live in the mid-range. Mississippi State will be fine with that, given its interior toughness. But the difference-maker will be Bulldogs freshman guard Josh Hubbard, who took some time to get comfortable (like most first-year players do), but who's averaging 25.4 points in his last eight games. He's a quality perimeter option to senior star forward Tolu Smith when the Bulldogs need a bucket late.

Pick: Mississippi St. (+1.5)

(10) Nevada vs. (7) Dayton (+1.5, 136.5)
March 21, 4:30 p.m. ET

Nevada returns much of the team that was blown out in a First Four game by Arizona State and narrowly avoided going to Dayton again this year. Instead, the Wolf Pack are playing Dayton on Thursday and are the short favorite for reasons that escape me. The Flyers are rated higher in KenPom and via ShotQuality, and three elements jump out in their favor.

While Nevada shoots a high percentage from three, it doesn't shoot enough of them, and its "Rim & 3" rate is just 72% compared to Dayton's 88%. Outside of head coach Steve Alford's Sweet 16 appearances with UCLA, where the Bruins were the favorite in five of six wins, his tournament record (NCAA and NIT) is 6-13 straight up. Lastly, if either team needs a basket late in a tightly-lined game, Dayton's DaRon Holmes is the guy to get it.

Pick: Dayton (+1.5)

Second-round bets to target

(5) Saint Mary's vs. (4) Alabama
Projected line: Alabama -1.5

Saint Mary's and Alabama have their hands full in Round 1, but if they survive popular upset picks - Grand Canyon and Charleston, respectively - this matchup will likely be a tougher adjustment for Alabama.

The Crimson Tide played at the sixth-fastest pace in the country this season, while the Gaels played the 352nd-fewest possessions per game. It's commonly cited that it's easier to slow a game down than speed it up, so Alabama may have to play the type of game it's uncomfortable with.

Pick: Saint Mary's (+1.5 or better)

(11) New Mexico vs. (3) Baylor
Projected line: Baylor -2

New Mexico was riding high last weekend when it ran through the Mountain West Tournament, winning four games in four days. That emotion can be hard to sustain, and the Lobos are getting bet out in their first-round matchup, creating some potential value on Clemson. If the market's right and Richard Pitino's group is that same tough-to-play squad, we'll be looking to ride its momentum into the Sweet 16, since Baylor's profile makes for a vulnerable favorite. Colgate's not the team to knock off the Bears, but New Mexico is.

Pick: New Mexico (+2.5 or better)

Best bets to win the West

The West has a soft middle. It's hard to make a case for a Final Four run from the 3-6 seeds, but there are sneaky-capable teams at 7-11.

This is Tommy Lloyd's third season in Arizona, so while being upset by Princeton as a 2-seed last year is the headline, getting beat by Houston in the Sweet 16 two years ago is an excusable result. Guard play let down Arizona last season, along with a miscast leading scorer in Azuolas Tubelis. Adding Caleb Love to be its top trigger man took care of both needs. Love wasn't the only one with Final Four experience Lloyd found in the transfer portal, either, as former San Diego State forward Keshad Johnson made Arizona more athletic on the wing.

If the Wildcats can avoid an upset in the West's bottom half, Oumar Ballo can defend the interior against Armando Bacot in a matchup with North Carolina. Pelle Larsson is up to 43% from three this season, with Jaden Bradley and Kylan Boswell firing efficiently from deep, as well. It's not the same group that's burned Wildcats backers in the past, and Lloyd's picked up valuable experience.

It'll require some price shopping, but let's attack this region by finding the best possible price for Arizona (available as high as +260), New Mexico (available as high as +2000), and Dayton (+6000 at theScore Bet).

Pick:
Arizona (1 unit risked at +220 or longer)
New Mexico (.1 unit at +2000 or longer)
Dayton (0.1 unit at +6000)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.