March Madness First Four best bets

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While sports fans throughout the country prepare sick notes to skip work or school and soak in the madness of the opening round, don't forget that the chaos actually begins Tuesday.

The First Four matchups feature teams who qualified for the field of 68 but must win an extra game to make the Round of 64. There are four contests - two Tuesday and two Wednesday. We have bets for three of them. Enjoy the appetizer to start the week because the entree is right around the corner.

Colorado State vs. Virginia (+2.5, O/U 120.5)

Game time: Tuesday, 9:10 p.m. ET

Virginia has no business being in the field of 68. Its metrics are significantly worse than many teams that got left out, and the eye test shows it's an incompetent offensive group. For whatever reason, the committee carried the Cavaliers' water and extended them an invitation.

However, Virginia has to play a First Four game to advance to the Round of 64. The Cavaliers' offense has been disgusting to watch. They had the worst scoring offense in the ACC, averaging 63.6 points per game.

Colorado State has a top-40 defense, so Virginia's scoring woes will continue. The Rams struggled down the stretch of the season, and their resume in an overrated Mountain West isn't all that impressive. But Colorado State shoots the ball well from 2-point range, is a trustworthy foul-shooting team, and doesn't turn the ball over often, all keys to winning in a survive-and-advance setting.

Virginia never deserved a bid in the first place. Colorado State will ensure the Cavaliers' season ends before the real opening round begins.

Pick: Colorado State -2.5

*No play in the Wagner/Howard game Tuesday evening

Grambling State vs. Montana State (-3.5, O/U 134.5)

Game time: Wednesday, 6:40 p.m. ET

It makes sense why Montana State is favored against Southwestern Athletic winner Grambling State. The Bobcats force opponents to turn the ball over at a high rate with an aggressive defense. That doesn't bode well for the Tigers, who have one of the country's worst turnover percentages.

However, Grambling State's strength is its shot selection. It doesn't play particularly fast and sometimes suffers from scoring droughts, but the Tigers have a solid rim-and-3-point rate, according to ShotQuality. That should help them keep it close in Dayton. This spread is too large for an evenly matched game.

Pick: Grambling State +3.5

Colorado vs. Boise State (+2.5, O/U 140)

Game time: Wednesday, 9:10 p.m. ET

Boise State is 0-9 all time in the NCAA Tournament. Every team and situation is different, but the Broncos' tournament struggles show how their success in the Mountain West hasn't translated to the Big Dance.

This version of Boise State doesn't shoot the ball particularly well. The Broncos lean on a tough defense that grinds opposing offenses. They played a somewhat challenging schedule that produced a pretty impressive resume.

However, Colorado is a prolific shooting team. It has the country's fifth-best 3-point percentage and is a great free-throw shooting team. If the Buffaloes get hot from distance, this could get ugly quickly. Colorado has had a turnover issue all year, which could keep Boise State in the game.

I just don't see how Boise State's offense can keep up with Colorado's.

Pick: Colorado -2.5

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.