March Madness regional betting preview: Do questions in the South create value?

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The 16th team in the South Region won't be decided until a little more than 12 hours from the beginning of the main draw, but whether Boise State or Colorado is in the mix as the 10-seed is just one of many questions lingering with this quadrant of the bracket.

Most of these are health-related - as key players on Marquette and Houston are expected back from injury, but to what degree of effectiveness? And, should our bets be affected by the uncertainty?

Odds to win the South Region

We've included a point-spread rating for each team with its odds of making the Final Four. The difference in teams' ratings can help project a fair point spread for a potential matchup later in the tournament.

First-round bets to make

(14) Oakland vs. (3) Kentucky (-13.5, 163.5)
March 21, 7:10 p.m. ET

If Kentucky's defensive issues were easily fixable, the Wildcats would've done it by now. Kentucky's defensive rating on KenPom is outside the top 100 despite playing a schedule that should boost any adjusted metric. Getting buckets at will is great, but it'll need a few defensive stops to cover a number over Oakland.

The regular-season and Horizon Tournament champions lost all four games against power conference competition earlier this year. While it was blown out by Michigan State (fifth in ShotQuality's AdjDEF) and Dayton (23rd in AdjDEF), it was able to play close with Ohio State (118th) and Illinois (56th). At 99th nationally in AdjDEF, Kentucky profiles like a team the Grizzlies can stay in touch with, even if Big Blue's firepower eventually allows them to advance.

Pick: Oakland +13.5

(9) Texas A&M vs. (8) Nebraska (-1.5, 146.5)
March 22, 6:50 p.m. ET

While point spreads are often derived - at least as a starting point - by KenPom metrics, there are other ways to evaluate a team. ShotQuality measures how good you are at getting efficient shots and preventing your opponents from doing the same. So, while Nebraska has a better KenPom profile, Texas A&M has a better net adjusted rating by ShotQuality. From an eye-test perspective, the Aggies also have a tough shot-maker in Wade Taylor.

In last year's first round, Texas A&M head coach Buzz Williams had to shake his head as he watched Penn State's Andrew Funk make 8-of-10 threes while Taylor and Tyrece Radford shot 7-of-30 from the field overall. Barring another outlier shooting scenario for either side, the difference-maker might be Manny Obaseki, who's averaged 15 points since Williams shook up his starting lineup to include a tertiary scoring option that helped the Aggies to a five-game winning streak.

Pick: Texas A&M (+1.5)

(13) Vermont vs. (4) Duke (-11.5, 132.5)
March 22, 7:10 p.m. ET

Vermont was once a regular in the No. 13 versus No. 4 matchup, but its metrics have slowly dropped over recent years. The Catamounts' KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency ranking of 159th in the country is the lowest offensive rating their tournament teams have had. The Catamounts were a 15-seed last year (losing by 17 to Marquette), but with some surprises in the conference tournaments last week, Vermont might be overseeded at 13 this year.

Remember last year when bettors were lined up around the block to bet on Oral Roberts against Duke in the first round? Whoops. A mediocre Blue Devils team handled an inferior opponent 74-51. Since losing to Mercer in the 2014 tournament, here are Duke's margins of victory in the first round: 29, 12, 22, 22, 17, and 23.

Duke's season will be defined by what happens when things get tough, but the Blue Devils are good enough to do what they usually do against mid-major teams: win with ease.

Pick: Duke (-11.5)

Second-round bet to target

(8) Nebraska vs. (1) Houston
Projected line: Houston -8.5

If Nebraska can get past Texas A&M, it'll run into a wall. Houston's defense is rated second in both KenPom and ShotQuality. Given the Cornhuskers' best win away from Lincoln came against Indiana (twice) - noticeably absent from the tournament field - putting up a second outlier win this week seems unlikely.

Most importantly, we'll have an idea if J'Wan Roberts is fully healthy. If that's the case, there's no one on the Huskers capable of keeping him off the offensive glass, which should create enough extra possessions to allow the Cougars to stretch a lead.

Pick: Houston (-8.5)

Best value bet to win the South

Houston's probably a good bet to out-tough Duke if you're filling out your bracket, but betting on the Cougars to make the Final Four at +140 isn't worth it - especially without certainty about Roberts' health and Houston's otherwise thin frontcourt.

Panic struck The Swamp as Florida lost a big man of its own when 7-footer Micah Handlogten suffered a brutal leg injury on Sunday. However, the bracket breaks its way with who might be capable of exposing Handlogten's absence.

One of Florida's strengths was offensive rebounding, but neither Colorado nor Boise State should turn the tables on the Gators in Round 1. Up next would be 2-seed Marquette (projected 3-point favorite), which was at the bottom of the Big East in rebounding margin. Florida's weakness - defense - could be masked in potential Sweet 16 shootouts with Kentucky or NC State (89th in KenPom AdjD).

Flying under the radar, partly because they don't have a first-round opponent to talk about yet, the Gators are available as high as 20-1 - a better price than other options with just as many question marks.

Pick: Florida (+1600 or better)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.