March Madness: Thursday's Round of 64 best bets

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The most exhilarating 48 hours in sports are here. The NCAA Tournament's Round of 64 tips off at 12:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, so get comfortable on your couch, complete your annual channel search for truTV, and lock in for the next few days.

We'll have a full card of best bets for every tournament day, starting with six for Thursday's action. Good luck and enjoy the madness!

(11) Oregon vs. (6) South Carolina (-1.5, O/U 133)

Game time: 4:05 p.m. ET

South Carolina was picked to finish second-to-last in the SEC at the beginning of the season. Then it started the year 13-1 and went through a stretch of seven straight SEC wins. But the team's been average since then and went 5-4 in its last nine games.

Oregon, meanwhile, ripped through the Pac-12 Tournament to earn an automatic bid.

South Carolina doesn't have the frontcourt personnel to defend Oregon's N'Faly Dante, who is by far the best player in the game. Dante posts up on the overwhelming majority of his possessions, and South Carolina struggles to defend post-ups, ranking in the 44th percentile on points per possession defending post-ups, per Synergy.

Jermaine Couisnard, Oregon's second-leading scorer, played at South Carolina for three years before transferring to Oregon before the 2022-23 season. He's an excellent downhill driver who can put added pressure on a suspect South Carolina defense.

South Carolina coach Lamont Paris maxed out this team's talent, which led to him earning SEC Coach of the Year honors, but if you're into coaching trends, Oregon gets the edge here, too. Dana Altman has never lost in the opening round and boasts the best against-the-spread win percentage in the NCAA Tournament (15-6-1) among all coaches in the field.

Pick: Oregon +1.5

(3) Kentucky team total: Over 88.5 points

Game time: 7:15 p.m. ET

Kentucky has the nation's fifth-best offense, according to KenPom, and best 3-point percentage (41.2%).

The team plays with a fast, free-flowing offensive style that relies on shooting - and making - a plethora of threes. Oakland has been a decent defensive team all season, but it played zone on almost all its defensive possessions.

While Kentucky rarely played against a zone defense, the Wildcats shot 45% from three to go with a whopping 66.4 effective field goal percentage against zone defense this season.

By design, zone defense allows opposing offenses to shoot more threes and grab more offensive rebounds, creating extra possessions.

These are the shots Oakland allows in its zone:

And these are the looks Kentucky generates:

That spells trouble for Oakland. Assuming Oakland doesn't abandon its defensive philosophy of playing zone, Kentucky should post a score above 90. And even if Oakland does play man-to-man, Kentucky's personnel will simply overpower Oakland's.

Odds: -120

(12) McNeese vs. (5) Gonzaga (-6.5, O/U 150.5)

Game time: 7:30 p.m. ET

Yes, Gonzaga has made 25 consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances under Mark Few. And sure, Gonzaga hasn't lost in the opening round since 2008. But this Gonzaga squad is a No. 5 seed, its lowest seed in seven years.

McNeese played well in its non-conference games and steamrolled through the Southland Conference en route to 30 wins.

Having won 11 straight games, McNeese boasts the nation's third-longest win streak. And how it wins is even more impressive.

It has the seventh-best 3-point percentage in the country despite shooting just 19 per game. It has a respectable 2-point rate and frequently gets to the free-throw line, where it converts often. It also goes deep into its bench, with nine guys earning quality minutes.

McNeese head coach Will Wade is a winner. He turned the Cowboys around in just one season after being ousted from LSU due to NCAA infractions. Wade is trying to earn another high-major job, and a tournament run could help his cause.

Gonzaga had success - as it always does - in the West Coast Conference, but its only impressive non-conference win was over Kentucky. This could be the year Gonzaga's opening-round winning streak ends.

Pick: McNeese +6.5 and Over 150

(15) South Dakota State vs. (2) Iowa State (+16, 135.5)

Game time: 7:40 p.m. ET

South Dakota State's high-scoring offense will face Iowa State, who have the top defense in the country.

As simple as it sounds, this will come down to whether South Dakota State can get hot and make threes at a high clip. The Jackrabbits shoot 36% from three and have an effective field goal percentage of 55.3%, good for top 20 in the country.

Iowa State's physicality and defensive pressure could be too much for South Dakota State, but I don't trust the Cyclones, who had the Big 12's second-worst scoring offense. Although they had an impressive Big 12 Tournament title run, I've been waiting to fade them in the Big Dance. They had a cakewalk non-conference schedule and failed two tests against Virginia Tech and Texas A&M early this season.

Defense-oriented teams that produce inconsistent offensive results can be prone to upsets. As long as South Dakota State shoots well, it'll hang around with the Cyclones.

Pick: South Dakota State +16

(10) Drake vs. (7) Washington State (+1, O/U 137.5)

Game time: 10:10 p.m. ET

Drake was a popular pick to upset Miami in last year's opening round of the NCAA Tournament but fell short. It earned another chance for a potential Cinderella run, however, when it outlasted Indiana St. in the Missouri Valley Conference championship earlier this month.

Drake's engine is an efficient offense that takes good shots and rarely turns the ball over, two keys against a stout Washington State defense.

The spread indicates this is a coin-flip game. Many tight tournament contests come down to free throws, and I trust Drake more than Washington State. Drake shoots 76% from the line, the 35th-best mark in the country, while Washington State ranks in the bottom third in free-throw percentage. I'll be more confident in Drake in the final minutes of a close contest. This could be the year the slipper fits the Bulldogs.

Pick: Drake -1

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.