Ranking the NHL's top pending UFAs

The 2024 class of unrestricted free agents once could've included the likes of Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Connor Hellebuyck, Mark Scheifele, Devon Toews, and Noah Hanifin. Those impact players ultimately re-upped with their clubs, and in the latter's case, signed with his new squad after being traded. But even so, a boatload of talented players remain poised to hit the market this summer.

One area where there isn't a lot of potential depth available is in goal. There are two "starters" - one cracked this list and the other is the inconsistent Ilya Samsonov. Laurent Brossoit and Anthony Stolarz stand out but are backups. Calvin Pickard stepped up during the playoffs but only played three games in the postseason.

Here are our top pending unrestricted free agents as we near the start of the frenzy on July 1:

xGF% = Expected goals for percentage at five-on-five
GSAx = Goals saved above expected (all situations)
GSAA = Goals saved above average (all situations)

1. Steven Stamkos

Position: C/LW
Age: 34
Last team: Tampa Bay Lightning
2023-24 cap hit: $8.5M

The Lightning cleared cap space with multiple trades at the draft, but general manager Julien BriseBois revealed Stamkos will become a UFA on July 1 despite the club's newfound financial flexibility.

The Bolts captain was the biggest name available in the summer of 2016, but he signed an eight-year, $68-million deal to stay in Tampa. That pact is expiring, and while Stamkos is now long in the tooth by NHL standards, he showed few signs of decline in 2023-24. No potential free agent can provide his combination of championship pedigree, leadership skills, and offensive prowess.

2. Jonathan Marchessault

Position: LW/RW
Age: 33 (34 on Dec. 27)
Last team: Vegas Golden Knights
2023-24 cap hit: $5M

Much like Stamkos, Marchessault is an aging forward who hit the 40-goal mark this season. Last June, Marchessault won the Conn Smythe Trophy while guiding the Golden Knights to a championship. So while he's also at an age when players typically decline, the six-time 25-goal producer is likely due for a sizeable raise.

3. Tyler Toffoli

Position: LW/RW
Age: 32
Last team: Winnipeg Jets
2023-24 cap hit: $4.25M

Teams looking for a more affordable scorer will undoubtedly consider Toffoli, who's coming off back-to-back seasons of 30-plus goals. He has played for five other squads over the last five campaigns thanks to four trades but has performed at a high level everywhere he's gone.

4. Elias Lindholm

Position: C/RW
Age: 29
Last team: Vancouver Canucks
2023-24 cap hit: $4.85M

Lindholm is a talented two-way forward who did his free-agent value no favors this past regular season, both with the Flames (nine goals and 23 assists in 49 games) and the Canucks. However, he missed seven games with a wrist injury in March and April and then salvaged some of that stock with five tallies (including two game-winners) and five helpers in 13 playoff contests.

The question is: Will the team that signs him get that version (the one that also racked up 42 goals and 40 assists in 2021-22), or the one that underwhelmed for the better part of six months?

5. Brady Skjei

Position: LD
Age: 30
Last team: Hurricanes
2023-24 cap hit: $5.25M

Skjei sometimes gets overlooked because he plays behind Jaccob Slavin on Carolina's depth chart, but the Minnesotan has been an important part of the Canes' top four for years. Skjei can produce offensively, log significant minutes, and effectively kill penalties, all while driving possession. He's not flashy but helps his club in numerous ways and will be coveted.

6. Matt Duchene

Position: C/RW
Age: 33
Last team: Dallas Stars
2023-24 cap hit: $3M

The Stars snagged Duchene on a one-year deal last July 1 after the Nashville Predators bought him out, and the veteran forward turned out to be a shrewd addition. He was more than dependable as the club's second-line center with a cap hit that was $5 million cheaper than his previous one.

7. Sean Monahan

Position: C/LW/RW
Age: 29 (30 on Oct. 12)
Last team: Jets
2023-24 cap hit: $1,985,000

Monahan's extremely team-friendly contract was also of the one-year variety, and the rebuilding Montreal Canadiens traded him to Winnipeg in February for two picks, including a first-rounder. The ex-Calgary Flame posted 13 goals and 11 assists and won 54.7% of his 547 faceoffs (go figure) in 34 games with the Jets. He's a three-time 30-goal scorer who's buried at least 26 six times.

8. Shayne Gostisbehere

Position: LD/RD
Age: 31
Last team: Red Wings
2023-24 cap hit: $4.125M

Gostisbehere isn't the most defensively responsible blue-liner, but he can shoot the puck and create offense as effectively as many forwards. He's scored at least 10 goals five times in his 10-year career, and he's topped 50 points three times, along with a 46-point campaign when he played only 64 games in his first true season.

9. Jonathan Drouin

Position: LW/RW
Age: 29
Last team: Colorado Avalanche
2023-24 cap hit: $825K

Drouin's numbers this season were inflated by playing for the Avalanche, but regardless, he was one of the best bargains in the league. He had a season like this with the Canadiens in 2018-19 and scored a career-high 21 goals two years before that with the Lightning. But it's hard to say whether he'll be able to replicate this kind of play if he leaves Colorado.

10. Chandler Stephenson

Position: C/LW
Age: 30
Last team: Golden Knights
2023-24 cap hit: $2.75M

Stephenson would've been a lot higher on this list last year after he posted career highs with 49 assists and 65 points over 81 games, then racked up 10 goals and 10 helpers across 22 playoff contests while helping Vegas win the Cup. He didn't play as well in 2023-24 but remains a skilled two-way center with a championship pedigree.

11. Vladimir Tarasenko

Position: RW
Age: 32
Last team: Panthers
2023-24 cap hit: $5M

Tarasenko proved this season that he still has some fuel left in his tank. He posted 17 goals and 24 assists in 57 games with the Ottawa Senators before being traded to the Cats before the deadline. The Russian collected five markers and four helpers in 24 playoff contests this year, winning his second Cup Final in a Game 7 on Monday after prevailing with the St. Louis Blues in 2019.

12. Cam Talbot

Position: G
Age: 36 (37 on July 5)
Last team: Kings
2023-24 cap hit: $1M

Talbot's age will be a concern, but the journeyman goaltender was very good for L.A. this past season. He ranked 18th and 11th, respectively, in the two analytic categories seen above. Talbot also shouldered an impressive workload for someone with so many miles on the odometer. He might be the best netminder available if he opts to leave Hollywood.

13. Matt Roy

Position: RD
Age: 29
Last team: Kings
2023-24 cap hit: $3.15M

Roy is quite underrated, likely because he isn't a prolific offensive contributor on the back end. But don't let that fool you. The American excels at playing defense and posted strong underlying numbers this season. The fact that he did so while averaging nearly 21 minutes of ice time makes it even more impressive.

14. Anthony Duclair

Position: LW/RW
Age: 28 (29 on Aug. 26)
Last team: Lightning
2023-24 cap hit: $3M

Duclair has had a few solid seasons in his 10-year career, but he's known for being streaky. In 2023-24, that was largely team-dependent. He registered just 16 goals and 11 assists over 56 games with the atrocious San Jose Sharks before they traded him to Tampa, where he racked up nearly half a goal per game and almost a point per contest in 17 appearances, adding a pair of helpers in five playoff appearances.

15. Anthony Mantha

Position: LW/RW
Age: 29 (30 on Sept. 16)
Last team: Golden Knights
2023-24 cap hit: $5.7M

Mantha didn't make much of a difference for Vegas after being acquired in the lead-up to the deadline. His 20 goals in 56 games with the Washington Capitals this season put him on pace for 29, but he mustered only three tallies along with seven assists in 18 games with the Golden Knights and then went pointless in three playoff contests. Still, Mantha is a six-time 15-goal scorer.

16. Jake DeBrusk

Position: LW/RW
Age: 27 (28 on Oct.17)
Last team: Boston Bruins
2023-24 cap hit: $4M

DeBrusk is the youngest player on this list and one of the youngest notable pending UFAs, period. That will put him on more teams' radars, but like Duclair, he's notoriously streaky. To his credit, DeBrusk is coming off a 2022-23 campaign in which he buried 27 goals and dished out 23 assists in only 64 games.

17. Viktor Arvidsson

Position: LW/RW
Age: 31
Last team: Kings
2023-24 cap hit: $4.25M

Arvidsson has been ignored on other lists of this ilk, presumably because he was so limited by injuries. That's been an issue throughout his career, but he was one of the most productive pending UFAs on a per-game basis. His 0.83 points per contest rank sixth in the class. Of course, he didn't even play a quarter of a campaign, but it illustrates how impactful Arvidsson can be when healthy. He's scored at least 26 goals four times.

18. Sean Walker

Position: D
Age: 29
Last team: Avalanche
2023-24 cap hit: $2.65M

Walker was coveted at the trade deadline until Colorado snagged him, and he played well for the Avalanche at the end of the regular season with four goals and three assists over 18 games. He failed to notch a point in the playoffs but still averaged over 18 minutes per night in the postseason in a third-pairing role. Much like Roy, he's not flashy, but every team could use a defenseman like Walker, especially if they can get him at a price similar to his current deal.

(Analytics sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey)
(Salary source: CapFriendly)