Is Paul Skenes already a generational pitcher?
It's been just over one year since Paul Skenes was drafted first overall by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 2023 MLB Draft. Since then, he's not only made the major leagues, but been so dominant that it looks like he's ready for another call-up to a more difficult league. On Friday, he was validated even further and named the All-Star Game's starting pitcher for the National League.
It's almost unfathomable that, twice already in his young career, Skenes has been sent to the mound and has refused to allow a hit. On Thursday, he was removed from his second no-hitter through 11 games due to pitch count in a bid to become the 25th rookie in MLB history to complete the feat.
Here's how his starts have looked:
| Date | Opponent | IP | K | BB | ER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11 | Cubs | 4 | 7 | 2 | 3 |
| May 17* | Cubs | 6 | 11 | 1 | 0 |
| May 23 | Giants | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| May 29 | Tigers | 6 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| June 5 | Dodgers | 5 | 8 | 1 | 3 |
| June 11 | Cardinals | 6.1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| June 17 | Reds | 6 | 7 | 1 | 1 |
| June 23 | Rays | 7 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| June 29 | Braves | 6 | 9 | 2 | 1 |
| July 5 | Mets | 7 | 8 | 2 | 2 |
| July 11* | Brewers | 7 | 11 | 1 | 0 |
* denotes no-hit bid
Skenes' first-half stats are relatively official now, as he won't play again before the All-Star break. So, it's time to ask: are baseball fans witnessing the beginning of a generational career?
Here's the full list of pitchers with a sub-2.00 ERA and more than 85 strikeouts over their first 11 career starts:
| Pitcher | IP | K | BB | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skenes | 66.1 | 89 | 13 | 1.90 |
That's it. That's the list.
Let's now drop the ERA stipulation and include any rookie pitcher with at least 85 punchouts through 11 starts.
| Pitcher | Year | IP | K | BB | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Wood | 1998 | 64.2 | 98 | 35 | 2.92 |
| Hideo Nomo | 1995 | 74.1 | 96 | 40 | 2.30 |
| Herb Score | 1955 | 81 | 92 | 58 | 3.22 |
| José DeLeón | 1983 | 82 | 91 | 33 | 2.52 |
| Skenes | 2024 | 66.1 | 89 | 13 | 1.90 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | 2014 | 78.2 | 88 | 12 | 2.06 |
| Dwight Gooden | 1984 | 67.1 | 87 | 33 | 3.07 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 2010 | 63.2 | 86 | 17 | 2.97 |
Eagle-eyed fans of the sport will note that Wood, Nomo, Score, and Gooden all won Rookie of the Year in their respective leagues, which bodes well for Skenes. Strasburg likely would've won the award if he wasn't placed on an extremely controversial innings limit.
However, the list is interestingly devoid of Hall of Famers. There are many pitchers with incredibly impressive careers on there, but they lacked the longevity required to make it to Cooperstown.
That's a crucial distinction to make as baseball fans enjoy the opening stanza of Skenes' hopefully long and storied career. The discourse around teams instituting pitch-count limits isn't slowing down, with some fans still clamoring about the arbitrary century mark. Considering that's almost certainly why Pirates fans have been deprived of watching Skenes throw a no-hitter, the ire is somewhat warranted. But Pittsburgh can't care about that; it needs to continue doing what's best for the young ace.
Wood, atop the list above and the only pitcher on there with more strikeouts in fewer innings than Skenes, remains a particularly cautionary tale. As a 20-year-old rookie, Wood infamously tossed a 20-K gem but needed 122 pitches to pull it off. It was before we knew about the potential damage that could cause, so it's hard to fault the Cubs too much. But he missed the final month of that campaign with elbow soreness and never really showed that level of dominance again due to injuries throughout his career.
The answer to whether or not Skenes is generational hinges upon whether or not his longevity can be maintained.