AFC divisional odds: Who's favored in a crowded East and North?
The NFL preseason is underway, and meaningful football is approaching. The AFC is loaded with quarterback talent and undoubtedly the better conference of the two. Worthy teams will certainly miss the postseason, with only seven clubs qualifying.
The AFC East and North each have multiple Super Bowl contenders. The AFC South is full of up-and-coming teams, while the AFC West has the Chiefs and revamped Chargers. Expect intense AFC division and playoff races. Let's take a look at the oddsmakers' projections for each division.
AFC East
| Team | Division Odds | To Make Playoffs Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Bills | +175 | -165 |
| Jets | +185 | -165 |
| Dolphins | +200 | -140 |
| Patriots | +2500 | +1000 |
The AFC East might be the NFL's best division, as evident by oddsmakers allotting three of the four teams a greater than 50% chance of making the postseason.
The Bills, the defending division champs, lost Stefon Diggs and have fewer reliable weapons for Josh Allen, one of the NFL's best quarterbacks. But Buffalo's in contention as long as Allen's under center.
The Jets' disastrous 2023 season essentially ended when Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles four plays into his debut. Rodgers is presumably healthy, and New York beefed up its offensive line to help keep the four-time MVP upright. If Rodgers returns to pre-injury form, the Jets can compete for the division and conference.
The Dolphins won 11 games last campaign and return an explosive offense. However, Miami's lack of physicality in the trenches and a porous defense might hold it back for a consecutive season.
AFC North
| Team | Division Odds | To Make Playoffs Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Ravens | +140 | -280 |
| Bengals | +150 | -240 |
| Browns | +500 | +140 |
| Steelers | +800 | +190 |
The Ravens earned the AFC's No. 1 seed in 2023 behind Lamar Jackson's MVP campaign. Baltimore's staying around as a perennial contender, but don't forget about Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Baltimore and Cincinnati have the second- and third-best odds, respectively, to win the AFC.
The Bengals won the division in 2021 and 2022. After a 1-3 start last season, they won four of their next five before Burrow tore a ligament in his wrist, ending his campaign. With a healthy Burrow and Cincinnati's offense returning to an unstoppable level, I'd take the Bengals to win the AFC North.
The Browns have a daunting defense, but quarterback questions exist. And does anyone know which version of Russell Wilson will show up for the Steelers?
AFC South
| Team | Division Odds | To Make Playoffs Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Texans | +105 | -185 |
| Jaguars | +275 | +130 |
| Colts | +325 | +150 |
| Titans | +900 | +475 |
C.J. Stroud led his squad to a postseason win in 2023, a feat rookies rarely accomplish. There are no signs of a sophomore slump coming for a guy as poised and gifted as Stroud. No one believed he'd turn Houston around in Year 1, but the team has a chance to compete for a Super Bowl in the signal-caller's second season.
Despite their disappointing 2023, the Jaguars are still a threat. A wager on Jacksonville to win the division is a bet on Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson. They showed their potential as a quarterback and coach duo in 2022, winning a lousy AFC South at 9-8 and completing an improbable comeback against the Chargers in the wild-card game.
The Jags fell flat last season, losing five of their final six games to miss the playoffs. Still, Lawrence secured a massive contract extension this offseason, and he now needs to prove he's worth it.
The Colts competed for the AFC South last season with rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson out for most of the campaign. The 2023 No. 4 pick showed flashes of potential in the few games he played. Indianapolis has the roster to contend in an open division full of young quarterbacks.
AFC West
| Team | Division Odds | To Make Playoffs Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -250 | -550 |
| Chargers | +350 | +110 |
| Raiders | +1000 | +340 |
| Broncos | +1800 | +750 |
The Chiefs have the highest probability (84%) of any NFL team to make the playoffs. They've also never missed the postseason with Patrick Mahomes under center and are going for the league's first three-peat since 1965-67.
Oddsmakers give them a 71% implied probability of winning the AFC West. That's awfully high with the Chargers lurking. Remember, Kansas City had its worst regular season with Mahomes in 2023. The offense looked discombobulated before it hit another gear in the playoffs.
Jim Harbaugh turns everything he touches into gold. Combining his winning pedigree with Justin Herbert's talent has the Chargers as a candidate to go from last to first in their division. At +350, it's worth a look at Los Angeles.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.