What the odds say: Will Stroud live up to the hype in Year 2?
C.J. Stroud put the league on notice during his incredible Rookie of the Year-winning season, leading the Texans to a division title and playoff victory.
Now, the betting market expects an even greater sophomore campaign.
Stroud is the second favorite to win MVP at +850 behind only Patrick Mahomes and is getting lots of attention from bettors. Stroud is the most-backed player to win the MVP with 14.15% of the bets and has accumulated the second-most handle (money wagered), according to data obtained from ESPN Bet and theScore Bet.
Stroud is also the co-favorite to lead the league in passing yards alongside three-time Super Bowl champ Mahomes and has the third-shortest odds to throw for the most passing touchdowns.
Quarterback odds
| Player | Most passing yards | Most passing TDs |
|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | +550 | +900 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +550 | +600 |
| Dak Prescott | +700 | +750 |
| Joe Burrow | +750 | +1000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +900 | +1500 |
| Jared Goff | +1000 | +1400 |
| Kirk Cousins | +1400 | +1300 |
| Matthew Stafford | +1400 | +1800 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +1600 | +1500 |
| Jordan Love | +1600 | +1400 |
| Josh Allen | +1800 | +1200 |
| Brock Purdy | +2000 | +1000 |
| Sam Darnold | +2500 | +3000 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +2500 | +2500 |
| Jalen Hurts | +3000 | +3000 |
| Caleb Williams | +3500 | +2500 |
| Justin Herbert | +3500 | +2500 |
| Baker Mayfield | +4000 | +2500 |
| Deshaun Watson | +4000 | +5000 |
| Derek Carr | +5000 | +4000 |
| Geno Smith | +5000 | +4000 |
| Kyler Murray | +5000 | +3500 |
| Will Levis | +5000 | +6000 |
| Lamar Jackson | +6000 | +2500 |
| Anthony Richardson | +7500 | +6000 |
| Jayden Daniels | +7500 | +7500 |
Odds via theScore Bet
Stroud threw for 4,108 yards last year, good for eighth in the league. His 23 passing touchdowns were tied for 13th. At first glance, his odds of leading the league this year in either category seem short based on last year's totals, but keep in mind that he accumulated those numbers in only 14 full games.
The Texans added Stefon Diggs to a wide receiver room that already had Nico Collins and Tank Dell. They also traded for Joe Mixon to help bolster their backfield. Adding to their roster on both sides of the ball (they landed defensive end Danielle Hunter in free agency) while Stroud is still on his rookie contract helps make the Texans contenders only two years after they went 3-13-1.
Houston has the fourth-shortest odds (tied with the Bills) to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl at +750. It's +1600 to hoist the franchise's first Lombardi Trophy, the eighth-shortest odds in the league. The Texans are -140 to at least match last year's 10 wins.
The AFC South is no joke, however. The Texans are the favorites at +105, but the Jaguars and Colts are also expected to compete for a playoff spot.
Jacksonville is coming off back-to-back 9-8 seasons, and it seems like it's now or never for Trevor Lawrence to force his way into the league's elite quarterback group. Indianapolis enters the season full of hope knowing what second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson can do when healthy.
Perhaps Stroud is the real deal and deserves to be in the same tier as Mahomes on various oddsboards. But he and the Texans are facing completely different levels of pressure compared to last year when they had zero expectations.
Oddsmakers and the betting market seem to believe Stroud will live up to the hype. Do you?