NFL MVP odds: Mahomes favored to win his 3rd award

Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet

There was a five-year stretch in the NBA from 2009-13 when LeBron James won four out of five MVP awards. His throne as the NBA's greatest player was undeniable, and his constant appearances in the Finals forced voters to gift him the regular-season honor.

The NFL might be reaching that stage with Patrick Mahomes, whose playoff brilliance as a three-time Super Bowl MVP, including the last two, has him on a pedestal so high that he can't reach the next tier of quarterbacks.

Mahomes won the award in 2022 but fell short in 2023 after perhaps his worst regular season since entering the league. When the playoffs arrived, Mahomes regained his magic and led the Chiefs to their third Super Bowl win in five years.

While the MVP is a regular-season award, it's hard for voters to separate past postseason performances when casting a ballot. Plus, no one expects Mahomes to replicate his poor (for his standards) 2023 regular season when Kansas City won 11 games, its lowest total since Mahomes became the starter in 2018.

That's led to Mahomes entering the campaign as the substantial MVP favorite, seeking his third MVP honor and fourth Super Bowl. The Chiefs are also attempting to become the first team to win three straight Super Bowls in NFL history.

NFL MVP odds

Odds via theScore Bet

Three guys have won the last six NFL MVP honors: Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, and Mahomes have two apiece in that span.

Jackson, last year's winner, finds himself further down the oddsboard of a typical defending award recipient. That's likely because Jackson's subpar playoff performances will impact voters' decisions if the Ravens signal-caller is in the hunt.

Rodgers is 40 and coming off a torn Achilles injury that caused him to miss the 2023 campaign. These are the lowest MVP odds he's entered a season with since he won the award in 2020.

C.J. Stroud and the Texans are the NFL's hot new commodity. Stroud shattered all expectations last campaign, becoming the first rookie quarterback selected in the first round to win a playoff game since Mark Sanchez in 2009.

Like any shiny new toy, interest is always the greatest in the initial moments. It's no different for Stroud, whom bettors don't expect to hit a sophomore slump. Stroud has received the most bets to win MVP at theScore Bet and ESPN Bet.

However, Mahomes has garnered 20% of the money on the market, the most of any candidate. But just 5.8% of total bets have been on Mahomes, meaning big money came in on the favorite. In accordance with the oddsboard, Stroud has the second-highest handle (money wagered), and Joe Burrow has the third-highest.

Burrow's back in the mix after a wrist injury ended his 2023 season early. The Bengals quarterback had a full offseason of recovery and is eager to remind everyone why he was an MVP finalist in 2022.

Josh Allen is in a similar tier with Burrow as one of the league's most prolific passers. He's a two-time MVP finalist but has never won the award. Allen lost top pass-catcher Stefon Diggs this offseason, which could pose problems for the quarterback and the Bills offense.

Jalen Hurts was the MVP runner-up in 2022 before plunging due to injuries and poor offensive play-calling last season. Hurts has an elite receiving core, a stout offensive line, a dynamic running back, and a proven play-caller in Kellen Moore. The Eagles QB should record tremendous numbers while leading one of the NFL's best offenses.

Jordan Love is a popular MVP pick. He's obtained the third-most bets behind Stroud and Burrow. After sitting behind Rodgers for two seasons, Love emerged as a capable passer and play-extender, tossing for over 4,100 yards and 32 touchdowns. He'll be in the MVP mix if he develops even further in his second season as a starter.

Maybe it's time for someone other than Mahomes, Jackson, or Rodgers to earn the honor. Or maybe Mahomes' status is untouchable, and the favorite will prevail.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.