Do oddsmakers have Darnold in the MVP conversation?
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Every week, we'll analyze key storylines from the previous weekend and how they impact bettors and markets moving forward.
Darnold's rise up the MVP oddsboard
Sam Darnold was such a long shot to win MVP that he wasn't even listed on the MVP market until the first Sunday of the season. For context, over 80 players were listed on the MVP market when it opened. Darnold wasn't one of them.
Darnold has soared up the oddsboard after a 4-0 start in his first season with the Vikings. He has the fifth-best odds (+1200) to win MVP, trailing Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, C.J. Stroud, and Lamar Jackson.
The only award market Darnold was listed on was Comeback Player of the Year, where he had the sixth-best preseason odds at +5000. He's now behind Aaron Rodgers at +250. But Darnold's in contention for a larger honor.
The former No. 3 overall pick never lived up to the hype when thrust into difficult situations and poor environments for his development. In his seventh year, alongside a brilliant offensive coach in Kevin O'Connell, Darnold has finally realized his potential. O'Connell is the favorite to win Coach of the Year at +185. He started the season outside the top 10 at +3000.
Darnold most recently served as the 49ers' backup during their Super Bowl run last season. The Vikings signed him to bridge the gap between Kirk Cousins and 2024 first-round selection J.J. McCarthy. Darnold likely would have started opening day anyway, but McCarthy suffering a season-ending knee injury gave Darnold full reign without looking over his shoulder.
In a league where demand for elite quarterback play is at a premium and increasingly lower in supply, Darnold has been one of the NFL's best at the position. He leads the league in touchdown passes and passer rating and is second in yards per attempt and adjusted QBR.
Oddsmakers gave Minnesota a small chance to compete in the division or for the playoffs before the season. That calculation was because oddsmakers didn't believe in Darnold - and for good reason after his previous stints as a starter. The Vikings were +1800 to win the NFC, +450 to win the division (tied with the Bears for the worst odds), and +250 to make the playoffs. Minnesota attracted 1% of preseason bets placed on the Super Bowl champion.
Now the Vikings have the fourth-best odds to win the NFC at +600 behind the 49ers, Lions, and Eagles. They're +105 favorites to win the NFC North, with the Lions trailing at +175. They're -425 to make the postseason, going from a 28% preseason implied probability to an 81% probability in four weeks.
While Darnold and the Vikings' offense has benefitted from a stingy defense, Minnesota's 4-0 start is no fluke. The Vikings have beat playoff-caliber opponents en route to an undefeated mark, including the 49ers, Texans, and Packers.
They'll be tested against the Jets in London on Sunday - the Vikings are 2.5-point favorites - and the Lions the following week. Darnold can continue to boost his MVP case with more impressive performances and Vikings victories.
Are oddsmakers bailing on Eagles, buying Commanders?
With an MVP candidate quarterback and explosive playmakers, the Eagles had the fourth-best odds (+800) to win the NFC when the market opened over the summer.
While a 2-2 start means doomsday in Philadelphia as the fan base calls for the firing of the entire organization, oddsmakers aren't overreacting to the Eagles' disappointing opening month. They currently have the third-best odds to win the NFC (+600) behind the 49ers and Lions. The Cowboys are also 2-2 but have looked much worse, resulting in their NFC champion odds slipping from +700 to +1100.
Although there are defensive concerns in Philadelphia, and Jalen Hurts' turnover problem impedes the offense's potential, the Eagles have quality wins over the Packers and Saints. Plus, they were without A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson - three of the team's most essential pieces - in their most recent loss to the Buccaneers.
Philadelphia plays the Browns, Giants, Bengals, and Jaguars following its bye. Those four teams have three combined wins. The Philly media needs to fill these next two weeks on air with anger and rage before that reasonable stretch. Meanwhile, oddsmakers have a rational approach, refusing to bail on the Eagles four weeks into a season in which they've dealt with critical injuries.
The Eagles have better odds to win the Super Bowl now than when the market opened. However, the division race has tightened with a new threat in the mix. The Cowboys and Eagles have traded the NFC East crown for the last decade, with the Commanders popping in for a division win every few seasons. The Eagles or Cowboys have won the NFC East nine of the past 11 seasons. Washington won the other two years.
The Giants haven't won since 2011 and aren't a factor this season. The Commanders are firmly in the mix after pundits and sportsbooks wrote them off before the season. Washington is in first place at 3-1 with a rookie quarterback playing like an All-Pro veteran. Jayden Daniels has thrown for 897 yards and rushed for 218 more. The second overall pick out of LSU leads the league in completion percentage and has the third-best passer rating.
It only took the 2023 Heisman winner a couple of games to figure out the NFL. He's delivering dimes from the pocket, extending plays, and winning games, which the NFL seldom sees from rookies.
Washington's offense, which has looked lifeless for years, is third in points and sixth in yards. Daniels is a -140 favorite to win Rookie of the Year, but can he carry the Commanders into the postseason?
Although its odds have shortened, oddsmakers aren't sold on Washington. The Commanders were +260 to make the playoffs in the preseason and are +140 now, giving them a 42% chance to qualify.
Despite holding the best record, Washington has the third-best odds to win the division at +275. Philly is the favorite at even money, and the Cowboys are +225. That's still a huge jump for the Commanders, who started the season at +900. Their odds to win the NFC shortened from +6000 to +3000, the 11th-best in the conference.
Oddsmakers believe the Eagles' poor showing and the Commanders' stellar start are somewhat fluky with a lot of football left to play, but do you agree?
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.