The Raptors' early-season schedule should help their rebuilding plans
"We're going to play to win, but it is a rebuilding team. I think everybody sees that, loud and clear."
With that, Toronto Raptors president Masai Ujiri set, or rather tempered, expectations for the team's 30th anniversary season weeks before the campaign tipped off. Ujiri's media day proclamation was significant, as it marked the first time in his 12-year tenure as Raptors boss that he openly acknowledged Toronto as a rebuilding squad to start the season.
Even in Ujiri's first year on the job, when it was an open secret that the Raptors intended to tank ahead of a 2014 draft that featured Toronto-area product Andrew Wiggins and future MVP Joel Embiid, he never used the R word. Ujiri instead vowed to evaluate things before making any rash decisions. The December 2013 trade that shipped Rudy Gay to Sacramento was supposed to expedite the race to the bottom, but the Raptors rallied behind Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, sparking the "We The North" era - a run of seven consecutive playoff berths that ultimately culminated in the 2019 championship.
During that long quest to the summit, Ujiri only used words like "retooling." When the painful descent back to earth began in 2020, he pivoted but never completely wiped the slate. The Raptors had no intention of turning their COVID season in Tampa Bay into a tank job until circumstances forced their hand. When lottery luck smiled upon them and delivered the 2021 pick that turned into future All-Star Scottie Barnes, the front office envisioned a bridge between two successful eras. Barnes' Rookie of the Year campaign and a 48-win season in 2021-22 fit that Spurs-like script.
But the two seasons that followed did not. The same dogged commitment to giving his teams a fighting chance finally backfired on Ujiri. A splintering play-in squad actually traded a first-round pick during the 2022-23 season, and the 2023-24 Raptors - who squeezed value out of an OG Anunoby trade but waited too long to deal Pascal Siakam - couldn't fully bottom-out while still owing a protected first-rounder to San Antonio.
Now, with control of all their future picks, a loaded 2025 draft class looming, and a Barnes-led core of 25-and-under talent, Ujiri's Raptors can no longer hide from the inevitable. This is a team built for the lottery, not the postseason.
"When teams go through this, you go out and set the tone for how you play and how you want the culture of your team to be, and you hope for the best. But we all know what reality is in this league - the draft is a way for us to build teams and acquire players, especially in a market like ours," Ujiri told reporters on media day.
Weeks later, Raptors head coach Darko Rajakovic told reporters on opening night that the team will be "focusing on the process over the outcome" this season. While Rajakovic's staff is no doubt committed to player development and setting the tone for a brighter future, his words (and Ujiri's) are NBA parlance for "lottery odds mean more than wins right now."
That doesn't mean the goal out of the gates will be to lose as many games as possible. An Ujiri-led organization will always have too much pride to be that shameless.
But the league's schedule-makers may have given Toronto an unintentional assist. Using last year's records, no team has a tougher schedule over the first seven weeks of the season leading up to the NBA Cup's knockout rounds.
The Raptors don't need things to go off the rails to come out of that 25-game stretch with less than 10 wins, or to head into 2025 with something like 10 or 11 victories from their first 31 contests. But if things do go haywire, it could get downright ugly. Case in point, a Raps team already missing RJ Barrett, Kelly Olynyk, Bruce Brown, and 19th overall pick Ja'Kobe Walter in its season opener against Cleveland lost Immanuel Quickley to a pelvic bruise in the second quarter. The result was a 30-point shellacking in front of their home crowd.
As one Raptors staffer quipped to me while we crossed paths shortly after the final buzzer, "Get used to it."
Even in a losing season, the Raptors will need to produce more excitement and entertainment than they did in their dreadful opener if they want to foster goodwill with the fans. But a strategic step back, a rebuild, or a tank - whatever you want to call it - should be an easier sell to those fans if the Raptors emerge from the first half of their schedule the way any honest observer would expect.
Beyond truly deplorable teams in Washington and Brooklyn, Toronto's early-season schedule could put the Raptors in pole position for the third and final top lottery spot (though Portland may have something to say about that), which comes with a 14% chance of winning the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes.
If things break the way they should, the Raptors' front office won't have to worry about being in the awkward position Utah found itself the last couple of years, when overachieving teams had their legs cut out from under them midseason. And Raptors leadership has already softened the blow of what's likely to come.
Of course, the 2013-14 Raptors remind us that there are no guarantees. Even the best-laid plans for futility can be sidetracked by a team coalescing at the right time or arriving ahead of schedule. And there are reasons for optimism.
Barnes enters the season as the undisputed franchise player for the first time after earning an All-Star selection as a 22-year-old last winter. Quickley, whose combination of shooting and playmaking makes him a perfect fit beside Barnes, enters the campaign as a full-time starter for the first time in his career. Barrett is coming off the best stretch of his career in the second half of last season and an impressive showing with Team Canada at the Olympics. Gradey Dick, whose size and shooting abilities are a tantalizing combo, looks more confident and complete than he did a year ago.
If those four youngsters and starting center Jakob Poeltl can ever be healthy at the same time, Toronto's starting five has the makings of a balanced and competitive unit. Meanwhile, second-round rookie guard Jamal Shead looks like he belongs (and like a future fan favorite).
Those bright spots, a much easier second-half schedule, and a comically inept bottom half of the East could conspire to keep the Raptors in the play-in race for the duration of the season. But this front office is finally displaying the self-awareness required to properly execute a rebuild, and it's unlikely to be tempted by any fool's gold.
An unforgiving schedule over the next couple of months should drive the point home.
"Every game is an amazing opportunity for us to go out there and compete, and to learn," Rajakovic said on opening night. "Obviously when you're playing against more experienced and better teams, that's asking for more of your preparation - to give more and to compete against those teams. But you also learn what you need to work on and how to improve as a team."
If Wednesday's opener against a playoff-tested Cavs team was any indication, there's a lot to learn, and even more ground to make up. Ujiri and Co. surely realize internal improvements alone won't get them there.
"We have a clear path now going forward," Ujiri said on media day.
All signs point to that path - and the schedule - taking the Raptors to the top of the lottery before it takes them back to the top of the East.
Joseph Casciaro is theScore's lead Raptors and NBA reporter.