Week 12 betting primer: Can 49ers overcome key injuries vs. Packers?

Week 11 spoiled us with marquee games delivering great finishes, including an electric Sunday nighter between the Bengals and Chargers. Week 12's slate is much lighter with six teams on bye but we still found five games worth highlighting.

Jump to: DET @ IND | MIN @ CHI | ARZ @ SEA | SF @ GB | PHI @ LAR

Sunday 1 p.m. ET

The 9-1 Lions take their NFC-leading record to Indianapolis for a date with Anthony Richardson and the Colts. This is a matchup between two of the league's best teams against the spread (ATS) with one of the week's highest point totals.

Case for the Lions

• The Lions are the best team in the NFL per defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) and are the Super Bowl favorites (+375) at theScore Bet/ESPN Bet.
• They're the best team against the spread (ATS) over the past five years.
• Five of their nine victories this season are by 10 or more points.

Case for the Colts

• Richardson returned as the starter last week and played his best game of the season by far. Perhaps benching him was the wake-up call he needed.
• The Colts are desperate in their hunt for a wild-card spot, whereas the Lions could be in a letdown spot after they destroyed the Jaguars at home.

Key trends

• The Lions are 8-2 and the Colts are 8-3 ATS, two of the league's top-four records.
• Dan Campbell is an astonishing 43-18 ATS as the Lions' head coach.
• The under has hit in two of the last three Lions games and four of the previous six Colts games.

Pick - Colts +7.5

We've been riding the Lions' impressive ATS record this season but this feels like a game they could take their foot off the gas. The Colts typically play close games, losing by more than 7.5 points only twice (on the road against the Vikings with Joe Flacco and at home versus the Bills). With Richardson back under center, the Colts' offense is far more dynamic and has a better chance of being able to keep pace with the Lions.

The Vikings will play their third straight road game when they visit the Bears for a crucial NFC North tilt. The Vikings are only one game back of the Lions for the division lead while the Bears can't afford to drop another game if they're going to make the playoffs.

Case for the Vikings

• The Vikings had a convincing bounce-back win over the Titans last week after barely squeaking by the Jaguars in Week 10. They remain a top-five team per DVOA.
• Minnesota's defense is the best unit in this game and could cause problems for Caleb Williams and the Bears' interim offensive coordinator, Thomas Brown.

Case for the Bears

• The Bears lost on a blocked last-second field goal to the Packers last week, their first competitive game in three weeks.
• Taking the home underdog in a divisional game with a point total of 39.5 is always a solid option. This spread and point total suggests the game will be a low-scoring affair, likely decided by a field goal.

Key trends

• The Vikings are 7-3 ATS while the Bears are 5-4-1.
• Kevin O'Connell is 6-2-2 ATS as an away favorite since being hired as Minnesota's head coach.
• The Bears are 4-1 ATS at home this season.

Pick - Bears +3.5

The Bears have shown up for their home fans aside from an abysmal Week 10 effort against the Patriots. The offense looked solid last week in their first game with a new OC and Williams used his legs effectively, rushing for 70 yards. Plus, playing a third straight road game is a tough spot for the Vikings, who haven't played their best football in November.

Sunday 4:25 p.m.

The Seahawks welcome the division-leading Cardinals for an important NFC West game. Arizona is 6-4 with the other three teams sitting one game back at 5-5. The Seahawks could jump from fourth in the division to first with a home victory.

Case for the Cardinals

• The Cardinals are coming off their bye while the Seahawks may still be recovering from an emotional road victory over the 49ers.
• Kyler Murray and Co. are the better team per DVOA and winners of five of their last six. They have impressive victories over the Chargers and 49ers over that span and blew out both the Bears and Jets in their most recent wins.

Case for the Seahawks

• The Seahawks defeated the 49ers - still one of the league's best teams despite their 5-5 record - 20-17 in San Francisco last week.
• Seattle's beaten Arizona in five straight meetings and nine of the past 12 dating back to the start of 2018, Murray's rookie season.

Key trends

• The Cardinals have covered the spread in four straight games to bring their season record to 7-3. They are 2-0 ATS against NFC West opponents this year.
• The Seahawks are only 3-6-1 ATS this season and 1-5 ATS at home.
• The under's hit in four straight Seahawks games and four of the past six Cardinals games.

Pick - Seahawks -1

Coming out of a bye and beating the 49ers on the road indicates the Seahawks have turned the corner. They limited Brock Purdy's offense to 17 points and were able to move the ball on a strong 49ers defense. Geno Smith shouldn't have trouble scoring on the Cardinals, and as long as the Seahawks' defense plays as well as it did last week, Seattle should be able to cover with ease.

Speaking of the 49ers, they're in Green Bay this week for a classic NFC contest. A desperate San Francisco team will rely on backup quarterback Brandon Allen to beat the Packers after Purdy was ruled out Friday. A loss for the 49ers would put them below .500 and likely mean their only shot at making the playoffs is winning the NFC West.

Case for the 49ers

• They're the slightly better team per DVOA, but that's with Purdy under center. Perhaps the drop-off to Allen isn't as drastic as the betting market might think.
• While important for both sides, the 49ers need to win far more than the Packers.

Case for the Packers

• Backing the Packers at Lambeau Field is never a bad idea, especially later in the season when the weather can get ugly.
• There's a chance the 49ers underachieve all season and they are what they are: a .500 team.

Key trends

• Both teams are 4-6 ATS, underperforming compared to the league's other top contenders.
• This is the first game in which the 49ers are underdogs this season.
• The under has hit in four of these teams' last six games.

Pick - Packers -5.5

The injury-riddled Niners slog onward with Purdy and Nick Bosa unavailable Sunday. These are arguably the two most important players on the roster and their absence leaves massive gaps on both sides of the ball. The spread only moved two points after they were ruled out, which doesn't seem like enough and makes the Packers a valuable bet.

Sunday Night Football

Sunday Night Football features the Eagles and Rams for a game with shootout potential. The Eagles are one of the hottest teams in the league right now as winners of six straight and the Rams' offense is always poised to explode, especially at home.

Case for the Eagles

• The Eagles have covered four of their last five while averaging 30.6 points per game.
• They have a small rest advantage having played Thursday night last week, while the Rams played on the East Coast and likely arrived home late Sunday.
• The Eagles are seventh in DVOA compared to the Rams at 18.

Case for the Rams

• The Rams played a similar game in Week 8 when they hosted the Vikings on Thursday night as 2.5-point underdogs and won 30-20.
• Like the Eagles, they're on a run of good football. They've covered three of their last four games and are winners of four of their previous five.

Key trends

• The Eagles are only 6-4 ATS this season but are 4-1 on the road.
• Home-field advantage isn't a thing for the Rams at SoFi Stadium. The franchise is 32-36-4 ATS since returning to L.A. in 2017.

Pick - Eagles -3

The Eagles are by far the better team and are only being asked to cover three points with the rest advantage. They feature the league's most dangerous rushing attack, while the Rams are league average at stopping the run, allowing 127.3 rushing yards per game. Expect the Eagles to remind the NFC that they must be considered one of the conference's top teams.