5 tips for building a winning bracket without college hoops knowledge

March Madness is here! It's that time when people become college basketball experts despite having watched less than a minute of action all season.

Everyone and their mother will fill out a bracket to compete against friends or colleagues in a pool. Many people won't know where to start, and they may only now be learning who the country's best team is or what school Cooper Flagg plays for.

If that's you, don't stress. We're here to help with five tips for building a winning March Madness bracket without knowing anything about this year's college basketball landscape.

Navigate the chalk

First things first: You'll have to do some work on your own with the guidance of these tips because I'm far from a college basketball expert myself. I'm not here to give out winning picks, but I do understand what it takes to build a winning bracket, and it begins with navigating the chalk.

You'll hear chalk a lot this week, which means a popular pick or a favorite. Remember: Winning a bracket pool is about beating your opponents, not building the perfect bracket. Avoiding chalk provides leverage and can create an easier path to winning.

Let's say you're in a 20-person pool, and you and 14 others have picked Duke as the champion. To win, you'd need Duke to claim the title and you'd need better selections throughout the rest of your bracket. Do you really want your picks between the coin-flip games of Baylor versus Mississippi State or BYU versus VCU to decide your fate?

Theoretically, as one of 15 entrants who selected Duke, you have a 1-in-15 (6.67% - you versus the other Duke pickers) chance to win the pool, while Duke has an implied probability of 25% to win the tournament. Even though you may have picked the champion correctly (which is already hard to do), the odds of having the best bracket are still stacked against you.

Instead, you could pivot to a different favorite. Maybe you'll be the only person to select Houston, for example, which has +650 odds to win (13.3% implied probability). That theoretically boosts your chances of winning the pool from 1-in-20 (5%) to 13.3% (Houston's probability) because you'll likely outscore the rest of your pool if you've picked the winning team.

Apply this logic throughout the bracket to help you gain leverage over your opponents - but keep in mind that avoiding chalk throughout the bracket is impossible. And sometimes, it makes sense to take the perceived chalk if your competitors are contrarians. If you believe you'll be one of just five people in your 20-person pool to take Duke, and you went a little off the board for your other finalist, then opting for the chalky favorite is more reasonable.

Study the odds

Once you've grasped which teams are chalk by reading articles or listening to a podcast or two, studying futures odds will help narrow down your selections.

Futures markets are a fantastic place to find sharp information. Markets for an event of March Madness' magnitude receive so many bets that they become very efficient, accurately representing a team's chances. There are odds for teams to reach every stage of the NCAA Tournament, and this can be a great way to find a sleeper.

Odds to reach the Sweet 16

Getting your picks to the Sweet 16 is important and keeps your bracket alive heading into the tournament's second week. The table above shows the top 12 seeds from each region and their odds of making it to the third round. A few teams stand out.

St. John's is a 2-seed but has an implied probability of advancing to the Sweet 16 of only 60.8%. Memphis is +500 (16.7% implied probability) to win its first two games, the worst odds by far of any 4-, 5-, 6-, or 7-seed. VCU, UC San Diego, and Colorado State seem to be held in higher regard by the betting market than their seed would indicate.

Moral of the story? Let betting odds help make your decisions rather than a team's seed, as they will do a much better job of telling you which teams are the class of each region.

Use KenPom rankings

KenPom rankings are the perfect resource to give you an edge in your pool, as they're largely unknown to general sports fans.

KenPom ranks every college basketball team using advanced analytics. Most teams align with their Associated Press rankings, but you can take advantage of some discrepancies.

For example, UConn was No. 1 in the KenPom rankings in 2023, but it wasn't the betting favorite to win the tournament and was only a 4-seed in its region. Analytics suggested the Huskies were the best team in the country, but tournament seeding allowed them to fly under the radar because they weren't a 1- or 2-seed. As a result, they weren't the most popular pick to win the tournament. Selecting UConn in 2023 provided a ton of leverage over the majority of people building brackets, and people who dug into the analytics were rewarded.

KenPom rankings also serve as a great tiebreaker between two teams, either in a first-round matchup or when deciding who to pick in the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight.

This year, the four No. 1 seeds are the top four in the KenPom rankings, so there doesn't seem to be a 2023 UConn lurking. However, Gonzaga is an 8-seed but is ninth in the rankings; don't be shocked if the Bulldogs get past Houston in the second round.

Here are schools whose seeds don't align with their KenPom ranking:

Gonzaga, Missouri, VCU, and UC San Diego are better teams per KenPom than their seeding indicates, whereas Oregon and Memphis are overrated as 5-seeds.

Use Round 1 spreads

Round 1 games are the best part of the tournament because everyone's bracket - for the most part - is still alive. Instead of making picks based on seeds and guessing where the upsets will occur, use first-round spreads to guide you in the right direction.

For example, you might think you're being sneaky by picking 12-seed Colorado State over 5-seed Memphis, but the Rams are actually 2.5-point favorites over the Tigers and could be a chalky opening-round upset selection.

Although attempting to predict upsets is fun, it's also very difficult. You may believe NC Wilmington can take down Texas Tech, but the odds suggest there's only a 9.1% chance of that happening. Is making that call worth the risk? Probably not.

Round 1 isn't the time to try and differentiate your bracket. Save that for the later rounds and use the spreads to guide you through the chaotic first two days.

Avoid information overload

There's a tsunami of March Madness content to consume in the days leading up to the first tipoff. If you try to digest it all, you'll be more confused than you were when you started picking your bracket.

Listen to every expert talking about the NCAA Tournament and you'll wind up convinced there are 20 contenders for the title - and you'll hear a case against all 20 of those teams too.

Find a small number of reliable information sources and only use those to help guide your decisions. Our very own Sam Oshtry will be delivering the goods all week.