Masters betting preview: 3 selections to don the green jacket

The greatest time of the golf calendar is here. It's Masters week. Clear your weekend schedules, place some bets, and settle onto the couch for what should be an incredible tournament.

A field of 95 players will descend on the iconic grounds of Augusta National for the year's first major championship. Defending champion Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite at +440 at theScore Bet/ESPN Bet. Rory McIlroy, whose quest for his first green jacket is the story of the week, is the second favorite at +650.

The course

• Augusta National Golf Club, Augusta, Georgia
• 7,555 yards, par 72
• Bentgrass greens
• All four par 5s under 600 yards
• Long par 4s place a premium on mid- to long-iron play
• Tests every aspect of players' games

One of the best aspects of the Masters is the familiarity every fan has with Augusta. When the TV broadcast cuts to a new player, you can almost instantly recognize which hole they're on. Augusta is widely regarded as one of the best courses in the world and a perfect test for today's modern professional. There's no faking it around Augusta National for 72 holes - whoever wins the green jacket will be a deserving champion.

Past winners

2024: Scottie Scheffler (-11) over Ludvig Aberg
2023: Jon Rahm (-12) over Brooks Kopeka, Phil Mickelson
2022: Scottie Scheffler (-10) over Rory McIlroy
2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-10) over Will Zalatoris
2020: Dustin Johnson (-20) over Sungjae Im, Cameron Smith
2019: Tiger Woods (-13) over Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Xander Schauffele
2018: Patrick Reed (-15) over Rickie Fowler
2017: Sergio Garcia (-9) in a playoff over Justin Rose
2016: Danny Willett (-5) over Jordan Spieth, Lee Westwood
2015: Jordan Spieth (-18) over Phil Mickelson, Justin Rose
2014: Bubba Watson (-9) over Jordan Spieth, Jonas Blixt
2013: Adam Scott (-9) over Angel Cabrera
2012: Bubba Watson (-10) over Louis Oosthuizen
2011: Charl Schwartzel (-14) over Jason Day, Adam Scott
2010: Phil Mickelson (-16) over Lee Westwood

The favorites

Scheffler and McIlroy are on a tier of their own this week by a significant margin. Bettors will need to form an opinion on these two before placing bets.

There isn't much more you can say about Scheffler's history at Augusta. He's won two of the past three Masters, an incredible feat highlighting how ideally suited this course is for his game.

However, Scheffler's form isn't the same as last year's. He's yet to win this season and - we're nitpicking here - only has two top-five finishes in six starts. Scheffler's odds have moved from +400 to +475, and there may be an opportunity to back the reigning champ if it continues to drift. But for now, you're paying a price that doesn't reflect his current form. For that reason, he's a pass despite his obvious winning potential.

As for McIlroy, his career at Augusta National is well-documented for all the wrong reasons. On paper, his history doesn't look concerning, but his seven top-10s in 16 career starts are a bit of a mirage since he hasn't genuinely contended at the Masters since 2011.

However, this could be McIlroy's best opportunity to complete the career grand slam. He's already won twice this season - something he's never done prior to the Masters during his career - and you can poke holes in nearly every other contender's game.

Admittedly, +625 is a short price for someone who hasn't won a major since 2014, and it's probably a pass considering the other options at far longer prices on the betting board. But if forced to pick one player to win the Masters without considering the odds, it's McIlroy.

The contenders

The oddsboard opens after the top two with eight players priced from +1400 to +2800. As mentioned above, every one of these players has holes in their resume that could lead to one of the most wide-open Masters in recent memory.

Collin Morikawa has the stats, recent form, and course history that align with past Masters winners, but he hasn't won since October 2023. And the times he's been close, Morikawa has looked uncomfortable while contending. He held the lead late at the Arnold Palmer Invitational before getting stuck in neutral on the back nine to let Russell Henley steal the trophy. Given his recent Sunday struggles, the pressure of a green jacket may be too much for Morikawa to handle.

It's tough to know the state of Jon Rahm's and Bryson DeChambeau's games leading into the Masters. Neither has won on LIV this year, and it's hard to determine if they're ready for Augusta's test with no strokes-gained data.

DeChambeau took advantage of a soft Augusta National last year in Round 1. He opened with a 65 but followed up with rounds of 73, 75, and 73 to fall out of contention. The idea that he may have figured out Augusta might be overblown.

Ludvig Aberg has missed two straight cuts coming into the tournament. Xander Schauffele isn't in good form, either. Justin Thomas is unlikely to end a nearly three-year winless drought on the biggest stage in golf. And Joaquin Niemann may be leading LIV's standings, but he doesn't have a single top-15 finish in a major.

Of course, there are positives for everyone's game in this range, but (for the majority) the risk doesn't outweigh the price you're being asked to pay.

The next tier

Picks

Xander Schauffele (+2200)

If you are casually tuning in to bet on golf for the first time this year and see Schauffele's odds at +2200, he'd likely be an automatic bet. That's the strategy we're taking with this selection. Don't overthink the obvious value attached to a player who won two majors last season.

A rib injury kept Schauffele out for two months earlier in the year. Missing time is less than ideal, but he's had three tournaments to sharpen his game before Augusta. While Schauffele's finishes haven't been great, his underlying numbers suggest he's nearly back to last year's form. In his most recent start at the Valspar Championship, Schauffele gained 11.2 strokes on approach shots, the best week of iron play he's had in his career.

Schauffele has also struggled with his driver since returning to the PGA TOUR. However, he mentioned in his pre-tournament press conference that he put last year's driver back in the bag because he didn't have enough time to test the 2025 model he received. Schauffele's typically a tremendous driver of the ball, which should return with a familiar weapon back in his hands.

Schauffele's major championship pedigree - and success at the Masters - have the makings of someone who should end their career with a green jacket. This is the perfect time to buy low on a player whose upside rivaled Scheffler's form from last year.

Will Zalatoris (+6000)

Will Zalatoris has played in three Masters, with his worst finish being last year's T9. Augusta rewards elite ball-strikers like Zalatoris, and his advantage over the field grows when the course gets crispy, which it's expected to be this week. There's also something about the Augusta greens that Zalatoris likes. He's far from the best putter in the world, but he ranked third in strokes gained: putting over his first two Masters appearances, according to Justin Ray of the Twenty First Group.

Despite lacking a top-10 finish this season, Zalatoris has been extremely consistent with no missed cuts. He also briefly held the lead on the weekend at the Players Championship, something Min Woo Lee also did before winning shortly after at the Houston Open.

Sepp Straka (+6000)

Sepp Straka may be the best relatively unknown player in the world, and you're getting a deal on him at +6000.

The big Austrian ranks seventh on the PGA TOUR in total strokes gained this season and fifth in strokes gained: approach, and he has a victory under his belt leading into the Masters. Straka also fits the current-form trend of recent Masters champions, with five top-15 showings in seven starts since his victory.

Additionally, Straka has past success in majors. He was a runner-up in the 2023 Open Championship (only five majors ago), T7 in the 2023 PGA Championship, and T16 at last year's Masters.

There's a lot to like about Straka's recent form, and major history suggests he could be a surprise winner.