Running analysis of Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs

Our hockey writers are sharing observations throughout Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Check back for daily analysis. Click to see the upcoming schedule.

Thursday, April 24

Leafs' top line is showing up

The sequence that led to Toronto's second goal Thursday night summarized the performance of the club's top line through three games against Ottawa.

It started with Matthew Knies jockeying for real estate around the Senators' net. Then there was Auston Matthews refusing to give up on a puck and eventually winning a 50-50 battle along the wall to gain full possession. A moment later, the puck traveled behind the net, where Mitch Marner skillfully redirected it between his legs to Matthews for a clean one-time snipe.

Each member of the line is playing with such precision, and it goes beyond pure skill. Matthews and Knies have been physically dominant. Marner has been outsmarting opponents with and without the puck. And all three have been clogging up shooting lanes, registering a combined 13 blocked shots.

Matthews has won 26 of 43 draws for a 60.3% success rate. Guess who swiped the puck back to the point ahead of Simon Benoit's Game 3 winner?

The Leafs are up 3-0 in the series and 3-0 in the Matthews line's 36 five-on-five minutes, most of which have come against the Sens' shutdown pairing of Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub, and the Shane Pinto-led forward line. Marner leads the club with six all-situations points. Matthews has five. Knies two.

Clutch all around - that's a phrase rarely uttered in the past about anything relating to Matthews, Marner, and the playoff pressure cooker. - John Matisz

Lightning have dug deep hole

After a soul-crushing 2-0 loss Thursday night, the Lightning now trail 2-0 in the Battle of Florida. Not great - and it's worse than it seems.

The Panthers deserved both wins. Tampa Bay's played well, too, but it's also been shooting itself in the foot. There's no room for any unforced errors in a first-round series between arguably two of the five best teams in the NHL.

In Game 1, Jon Cooper lost a coach's challenge that he should never have initiated, and Florida scored on the ensuing power play. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy struggled with screens all night and let in six goals on 17 shots.

In Game 2, forward Brandon Hagel delivered a dangerous hit on Aleksander Barkov midway through the third period. He was assessed a five-minute major and could face supplemental discipline from the league. (Barkov left the game.)

Meanwhile, another key piece, Anthony Cirelli, is grinding through an injury. The Selke Trophy-caliber center left in the middle of Game 1, and he logged only 15 minutes of ice time Thursday, 3:32 less than his regular-season average.

Tampa loses last change and the home crowd for Games 3 and 4 in Sunrise. - John Matisz

Biggest defensemen workloads

Thomas Harley skated for 27, 36, and 30 minutes in the Stars' opening playoff games against the Avalanche. Two went to overtime, but Miro Heiskanen's absence meant that Harley was never going to get much of a break.

Esa Lindell, Cale Makar, and Devon Toews each logged more than 30 minutes on the back end in the longer Dallas-Colorado overtime affair. Evan Bouchard and Brock Faber both played around 28 minutes in their respective playoff openers - neither of which reached OT - as their teams tried to tie the score in the third period.

So far, 17 playoff defensemen are averaging more than 24 minutes of ice time. The same number assumed that load in the regular season, when twice as many clubs and players were in action. Since there are no back-to-backs in the playoffs, defensive thoroughbreds have a day to relax between games. Coaches send them over the boards with reckless abandon and lean on them to be sharper than ever.

Either Lane Hutson or Mike Matheson is almost always on the ice for the Canadiens. The Senators constantly deploy Jake Sanderson or Thomas Chabot. Same goes for the Wild's Faber and Jonas Brodin, plus Mikey Anderson and Drew Doughty for the Kings. All go toe to toe with top forwards and either aim to shackle those stars without making a mistake or try to drive enough offense to counter slipups.

Besides the Stars and Avalanche defensemen, these minute munchers have barely played in overtime yet. The Washington-Montreal and Toronto-Ottawa OT games ended within a handful of shifts. Workloads around the league will rise.

These dynamos are covering for fringe players like Jordan Spence, who's averaging 7:45 as L.A.'s sixth defenseman, and Jacob Moverare, who rode pine as the seventh D against Edmonton in Game 2 before taking a whopping 156-second shift in garbage time. The Oilers scratched Josh Brown after he logged 4:54 in Game 1, primarily as a penalty-killing specialist.

Which defensemen entered the playoffs with significant mileage? Six averaged at least 24 minutes in the regular season while barely missing any games: Makar, Toews, Faber, Matheson, Sanderson, and Winnipeg's Josh Morrissey, whose playoff average is down to a breezy 22:52.

It's worth noting that Zach Werenski shouldered enormous minutes (2,166 over 81 games, the most in the NHL since 2019) throughout the Blue Jackets' storybook season. He averaged 26:45 per night. If there's a silver lining to Columbus barely missing the playoffs, it's that Werenski, who also played at the 4 Nations Face-Off and was the tournament scoring leader, gets a merciful break. - Nick Faris

West players to watch tonight

The Golden Knights visit the Wild at 9 p.m. ET and the Blues host the Jets at 9:30 p.m. ET in Thursday's Western Conference action. Here's a pivotal player to track from each team.

Jack Eichel: Quiet outings are a rarity for Eichel, but Vegas' Game 2 defeat was the first time he recorded no points and no shots on net in his playoff career. The Golden Knights are in a fine spot: The series is tied and they earned more points on the road (49) than Minnesota did at home (46) in the regular season. That said, Eichel can't continue to be upstaged by the magnificent Kirill Kaprizov.

Ryan Hartman: His long suspension in February for slamming Tim Stutzle's head to the ice was the latest reminder that Hartman can become a liability. But he's kept his cool against the Golden Knights while notching an assist in each game, drawing a boarding penalty, and shaking loose for a breakaway. Captain Jared Spurgeon rallied the troops after Game 2 by telling the Wild that their third-line center is in Vegas' heads.

Josh Morrissey: When Morrissey skated at even strength in Games 1-2, the Jets spent 49% of that time in the offensive zone compared to 34% in their own zone. That's an improvement on his elite ratio from the regular season (46% vs. 37%), per NHL EDGE. He's fulfilled any No. 1 defenseman's top task: Stop the opponent's main offensive driver - Blues center Robert Thomas, in this case - from making headway.

Jimmy Snuggerud: Blues coach Jim Montgomery trusts Snuggerud, the 20-year-old winger with nine NHL games under his belt. He was promoted to play with Thomas on the top line and snapped a wicked shot under the crossbar on the power play. The Blues are 3-for-7 with the man advantage but desperately seeking five-on-five offense, having beaten Connor Hellebuyck for one goal on seven dangerous shot attempts. - Nick Faris

Early goalie look-in

You can't win sustainably in the playoffs without strong goaltending, and six netminders are off to highly impressive starts in the early stages of Round 1.

It's no surprise the top three goalies in our chart have comfortable 2-0 series leads. Andersen and Thompson are outdueling their first-round counterparts by tiny margins, but it makes all the difference.

Much has been made of how Ottawa has outshot Toronto throughout their series, and Stolarz has comfortably passed the eye test with two strong games. However, his goals saved above expected is the lowest of the netminders we've highlighted, indicating his calls to action haven't been as dangerous as some of his peers. Stolarz has played well, but the Maple Leafs have also been excellent in front of him.

On the flip side of things, Andrei Vasilevskiy (.617 save percentage), Linus Ullmark (.800), and Stuart Skinner (.810) badly need to turn things around to give their teams a chance. - Sean O'Leary

Battle of Ontario line tinkering

Grizzled depth scorer Max Pacioretty will make his Maple Leafs playoff debut in Game 3 in Ottawa. He hasn't played since Feb. 8 but slots in for Nick Robertson, Toronto's least trusted forward (10:18 of average ice time, two high-sticking infractions in the series). Pacioretty took as many penalties as Robertson this season (eight) in half the games. With a 2-0 series lead, he can get his legs pumping and try to exploit lapses from a desperate opponent.

The Senators appear ready to elevate Fabian Zetterlund to the second line alongside Drake Batherson and Dylan Cozens. He replaces the cerebral, plodding David Perron on their left wing. Zetterlund's a speedy, physical energizer who's experienced brutal finishing luck since being traded from San Jose. He's due to bag a big goal, and his new linemates are equipped to get him the puck, but time's ticking. - Nick Faris

East players to watch tonight

Thursday's busy, exciting four-game slate begins with Game 2 of Lightning-Panthers at 6:30 p.m. ET and Game 3 of Maple Leafs-Senators at 7 p.m. ET.

Keep eyes on these four influential players during the Atlantic Division matchups.

Brandon Hagel: The rare Lightning cornerstone without a Cup ring, Hagel's continually raised his game since being dealt from Chicago in 2022. He's one of the NHL's top scorers at even strength (72 points this season) and on the penalty kill (seven). We know he irritates Matthew Tkachuk, whose brilliant return from injury helped Florida prevail in the opener. Hagel needs to light the lamp himself, set up linemate Jake Guentzel, or draw a costly penalty.

Seth Jones: Aaron Ekblad's PED suspension is about to expire, meaning Jones gets one more game to skate with Gustav Forsling on the top pair. His play was passable down the stretch as the Panthers' compromised lineup went 10-10-1 after acquiring Jones from Chicago. Before they get back to full strength, his job Thursday is to stop Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point from shelling Sergei Bobrovsky.

Jake McCabe: Toronto trails Ottawa 37-13 in shot attempts and 16-4 in shots on target when top defenders McCabe and Chris Tanev are on the ice. So what? They've minimized dangerous chances and haven't given up a goal to the Senators' top forwards, which helps explain Anthony Stolarz's .934 save rate. The Leafs are up 4-1 in power-play goals thanks to their own quick strikes and dogged work from key penalty killers like McCabe.

Dylan Cozens: Ottawa, which spent much of its losing efforts cycling the puck in Toronto's end, needs goals. Cozens, a savvy deadline addition, has run hot and cold since coming over from Buffalo. When he’s feeling himself, he’s a spirited playmaker and finisher who can collaborate with Drake Batherson to get the puck to prime scoring areas and atone for the shoddy defense on Max Domi’s Game 2 overtime winner. - Nick Faris

Oilers defense is MIA

The Oilers' defensive wall is crumbling. They let the Kings rack up six goals in back-to-back games. Every L.A. tally in Wednesday night's 6-2 rout was scored from below the faceoff dots or at the crease. Beleaguered goalie Stuart Skinner twisted in the wind for most of the night, and backup Calvin Pickard couldn't stop the first shot he faced, which was a bullet from Adrian Kempe on an odd-man rush.

Skinner's .810 save percentage in the series is ghastly, but he's not missing beach balls. Defensive miscues piled up Wednesday.

Jake Walman failed to deter a speedy entry and, along with Darnell Nurse, was beaten to a rebound on different power-play goals. Nurse wandered out of position and glided to a standstill by the boards when Quinton Byfield walked in alone. Kempe's pair of snipes followed a comedy of errors: Viktor Arvidsson's fanned pass, John Klingberg's futile pinch, and Trent Frederic's feeble imitation of a hit. Skinner didn't bail out his teammates.

The lack of care, execution, and pushback deepened the Oilers' hole. They trailed big in the opener, then became just the fifth team this century to go down 2-0 in Round 1 while allowing at least a dozen goals, according to Stathead.

For what it's worth, two of those squads were the 2006 Hurricanes and 2014 Kings, who recovered to win Stanley Cups. But without the steady, injured Mattias Ekholm, Edmonton looks outclassed right now by a division foe it used to torment.

Overwhelmed by Edmonton's power play in previous matchups, L.A.'s flipped the script by gaining a 5-0 edge in PP goals, with four assisted by Kempe. Edmonton's PK fell from grace after it operated at 94.3% overall and blanked the Stars for an entire round en route to last year's Cup Final. Suddenly, the promised land is so far away. - Nick Faris

Wednesday, April 23

Caps' subtle deadline pays dividends

The Capitals' acquisition of Anthony Beauvillier for a second-round pick got little attention at the trade deadline while other contenders made much bigger splashes (Beauvillier was twice traded for only a fifth-rounder a season ago, after all).

And yet, the 27-year-old is a key reason the Capitals own a 2-0 series lead over the Canadiens. Aliaksei Protas' injury forced the 27-year-old onto the top line with Dylan Strome and Alex Ovechkin, and the unit hasn't missed a beat.

Beauvillier tallied a goal and an assist in Game 1, then set up Strome for the eventual winner in Game 2. It's not just the production, either. The Capitals are up 20-9 in five-on-five scoring chances with Beauvillier on the ice through both contests, according to Natural Stat Trick.

It's not always the flashy deadline moves that make the biggest impact. Beauvillier is proving that early in the first round. - Kyle Cushman

There's no time like overtime

This postseason's first overtime hero, Alex Ovechkin, needed two minutes of free hockey to down Montreal in Washington's opener. Dallas forward Colin Blackwell followed suit later Monday night to tie the Stars-Avalanche series. Toronto snuffed out Ottawa in sudden death Tuesday thanks to Max Domi's heroics.

The chase for the Cup starts with the most frantic period of the hockey calendar. Games are always happening in the opening round. Tension palpates in rinks, bars, and living rooms. Grudge matches, offensive slugfests, and epic goalie duels produce close scores, followed by the sweetest of sights for the winning or neutral fan: an overtime clincher.

With three OT goals in the books, how many more can fans expect to see in Round 1?

There's no clear trend. Over the past 10 postseasons, 103 thrilling winners were netted after regulation in the first round, but the total yo-yoed yearly.

Last year's first round featured seven, none bigger than David Pastrnak's Game 7 clincher for Boston. In 2023, there were 14, including Carter Verhaeghe's Game 7 dagger against the Bruins. The totals continue to vary from there, with eight in 2022, 16 in 2021, and eight in 2020, though an additional five were scored in that bubbled postseason's makeshift qualifying round.

The high mark in the span was 18 in 2017; within one rollicking week, five Game 3s and five Game 5s required an overtime winner. Only five rippled twine in 2018. Both 2015 and 2019 were perfectly average with 10 apiece, according to Hockey Reference's handy tracker.

The skaters in these playoffs with the most career overtime goals are Florida's Verhaeghe and Edmonton's Corey Perry - both have tallied five. Next on the active list with three apiece are Matt Duchene, Anze Kopitar, Brad Marchand, Brayden Point, Jordan Staal, John Tavares, and Matthew Tkachuk. Any of them could add to their lore in the next couple of weeks and inflict both agony and ecstasy in the process. - Nick Faris

Landeskog back in wildly different NHL

Gabriel Landeskog drew into Game 3 of the Avalanche-Stars series Wednesday night. It was the Colorado captain's first NHL game in nearly three years - an astounding feat.

Landeskog, 32, underwent multiple right-knee surgeries following the club's Stanley Cup-clinching victory June 22, 2022. The winger has battled through a 1,032-day process marked by immense pain, grueling rehabilitation, frustrating setbacks, and mental and emotional hurdles.

The NHL landscape changed dramatically over those 1,032 days. Let's flash back:

• Jonathan Huberdeau and Matthew Tkachuk had yet to switch teams in a July 2022 blockbuster that would send their careers in completely different directions.

• Martin St. Louis, currently fifth among head coaches in active tenures, was just five months removed from leaving a Connecticut youth team to run the Canadiens' bench.

• The league-average save percentage, which this regular season dropped to .900 for the first time since 1995-96, was only beginning its descent, finishing at .907 in 2021-22.

• Alex Ovechkin was 36 years old and 114 goals behind Wayne Gretzky, the all-time goals record attainable but extremely unlikely to change hands before the Russian's 40th birthday.

• Mikko Rantanen was in the middle of a six-year contract in Colorado, blissfully unaware that he'd be traded twice in the first three months of 2025, sign an eight-year extension with Dallas, and be facing off against close friend Landeskog in a first-round playoff series. - John Matisz

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