Running analysis of Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs

Our hockey writers are sharing observations throughout Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Check back for daily analysis. Tap to see the upcoming schedule.

Friday, April 25

Who can't buy a goal?

Here's a list of 10 forwards with many shot attempts and dangerous scoring chances but zero playoff goals entering Friday's action.

(Numbers are via Natural Stat Trick.)

These guys yearn to score. Defenders are blocking some of their shots. Others have sailed wide or been devoured by hot netminders.

Rantanen, the Stars' marquee trade addition, is tied with Auston Matthews for the NHL lead in dangerous attempts and has one more than Brady Tkachuk, but both Ontario captains have lit the lamp already. Somehow, Eriksson Ek remains pointless even though his metrics are strong and his linemates, Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy, have combined for eight goals and 13 points against the Golden Knights.

Seven of these forwards are part of trailing teams. Ottawa's top centers, Stutzle and Cozens, struggled to solve Toronto's defensive shell and goalie Anthony Stolarz over three consecutive losses. A couple of first-line wingers - Montreal's Slafkovsky and New Jersey's Meier - will keep firing Friday as their clubs try to stave off 3-0 series deficits. - Nick Faris

Kuzmenko, Kings thriving together

Andrei Kuzmenko is on a heater. The sharpshooting winger entered the playoffs having produced five goals and 12 assists in Los Angeles' final 15 regular-season games, and he's added five points in the first two Kings-Oilers matchups.

Kuzmenko bagged a power-play goal, plus two assists, in his playoff debut. He scored on the man advantage and added another helper in Game 2. Kings fans are anxious to find out what he and the unbeaten club have in store Friday as the series shifts to Edmonton.

An undrafted winger out of Russia, Kuzmenko scored 39 goals as a 26-year-old Canucks rookie. Unable to keep up that torrid pace, he was traded to the Flames in 2024 as part of a package for Elias Lindholm. He was swapped in January to the Flyers and moved again in March to L.A.

His Kings transition wasn't smooth (zero points in first seven games), but Kuzmenko eventually found a comfortable spot on the No. 1 line alongside two-way pivot Anze Kopitar and speedy winger Adrian Kempe. He hasn't looked back, contributing also to L.A.'s blazing-hot five-forward power play unit, which is 5-for-10 in the playoffs. The Kings chased Stuart Skinner and prompted Edmonton to turn to backup goalie Calvin Pickard for Game 3.

L.A.'s offense lacked creativity during last year's first-round loss to the Oilers. Kuzmenko, a pending unrestricted free agent, has helped diversify the attack. - John Matisz

Habs need all hands on deck

Hotshot youngsters dragged the Canadiens out of the basement this season. No moment overwhelmed Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, or Lane Hutson as they racked up clutch goals and led the charge from 16th place in the Eastern Conference to the playoffs.

They need help to threaten the Capitals in Game 3 and claw back in their series. Washington's stocked with opportunistic scorers and fully trusts goalie Logan Thompson, who found his groove with several highlight saves down the stretch of his second game back from injury.

Cagey veterans must chip in offense and defend heartily for Montreal. The Canadiens gained a Game 2 lead when the gritty line of Josh Anderson, Christian Dvorak, and Brendan Gallagher battled to push the puck to the blue paint and through Thompson's legs. They trailed within the next four minutes and surrendered 18 second-period shots because the Capitals' puckhandlers had endless space to stroll through the neutral zone.

Dvorak and Gallagher significantly upped their production after the 4 Nations Face-Off break. The ability of Anderson and Jake Evans to draw penalties puts Montreal's talented power play to work. The electricity of the Bell Centre helped the Habs win 10 of their last 12 home games and surge to the NHL lead in third-period comeback victories. Will one of these factors tilt the scales Friday? - Nick Faris

Benoit the unlikeliest hero

On paper, Maple Leafs defenseman Simon Benoit is perhaps their most replaceable player. This postseason, he's been indispensable. The 26-year-old has been at the center of overtime heroics in back-to-back games and provided his team a 3-0 stranglehold over the Senators on Thursday with a seeing-eye point shot in the extra frame.

It's a remarkable twist of fate for the depth defender following a regular season in which he rarely looked like the player who earned a three-year extension last March. His metrics in the playoffs aren't great, but he's come up big when it's mattered most. Benoit has two points, seven blocks, and 10 hits in the opening round while averaging nearly 19 minutes per night.

"What do the numbers say?" Benoit told The Athletic after Game 3. "I don't care about the season, how the season went - I just feel ready for tonight and the rest doesn't f-----g matter. It's playoffs. Best time of the year."

There are unexpected heroes every year in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. It's easy to root for Benoit, an undrafted journeyman breaking stereotypes and becoming a folk hero within a fan base that's loyal to anyone who steps up when the lights shine brightest. - Sean O’Leary

Leafs own the faceoff dot

At the end of playoff games, one team wins and the other learns something. That outcome isn't nearly as fun, but the Senators can pinpoint needed improvements as they try to avenge their second straight overtime loss to the Maple Leafs and mount any semblance of a comeback.

One area the Sens need to shore up is faceoffs. Success rates in the dot average out over a long season, but the Leafs have controlled 57% of draws through three playoff games and snapped back 63% in Game 3. Auston Matthews' clean win against Shane Pinto a few shifts into overtime set up Simon Benoit's floater through traffic.

The Leafs scored 3, 8, and 9 seconds into various Game 1 power plays. Each time, John Tavares soundly beat Claude Giroux on the opening draw and Toronto picked apart Ottawa's diamond formation. The same thing happened within 18 seconds in Game 2 following a Matthews win over Pinto, the young shutdown center who's struggled with his extremely challenging assignment.

Matthews and Tavares are 27-16 (63%) on faceoffs in the Ottawa zone. Giroux and Pinto are 12-25 (32%) on D-zone draws.

Giroux was the league's best faceoff taker in the regular season, and his win against Max Domi in Game 3 promptly led to a breakout and Brady Tkachuk's equalizer. But overall, his team's getting schooled on a detail that becomes important in the playoffs, when close games can turn on any bounce. - Nick Faris

Golden Knights gifting series to Wild

The Golden Knights are typically very good at managing the puck. It's been a hallmark of their game over head coach Bruce Cassidy's three-year tenure.

On the surface, Cassidy's squad is doing quite well on that front to start the postseason: Vegas' 10 giveaways per game are tied with Toronto and Los Angeles for fewest among the 16 playoff teams.

Unfortunately, not every giveaway is created equal. Vegas is down 2-1 to Minnesota heading into Game 4 in large part due to egregious turnovers.

The Game 2 tape wasn't pretty, and Thursday's Game 3 was equally bad. Goalie Adin Hill's attempted rim led directly to the first goal in a 5-2 Wild win. Defenseman Noah Hanifin's failed reverse deep in Vegas' zone resulted in the second.

Minnesota star Matt Boldy pursued Hanifin like a dog on a bone to force that particular turnover. He and puck wizard Kirill Kaprizov have been spectacular against Vegas, both recording multiple points in all three games. The playoff point leaderboard currently reads: Kaprizov, 7; Adrian Kempe, 7; Cam Fowler, 7; Boldy, 6; Pavel Buchnevich, 6; Mitch Marner, 6.

Not bad for two members of the West's biggest underdog. - John Matisz

Leafs' top line showing up

The sequence that led to Toronto's second goal Thursday night summarized the performance of the club's top line through three games against Ottawa.

It started with Matthew Knies jockeying for real estate around the Senators' net. Then there was Auston Matthews refusing to give up on a puck and eventually winning a 50-50 battle along the wall to gain full possession. A moment later, the puck traveled behind the net, where Mitch Marner skillfully redirected it between his legs to Matthews for a clean one-time snipe.

Each member of the line is playing with such precision, and it goes beyond pure skill. Matthews and Knies have been physically dominant. Marner has been outsmarting opponents with and without the puck. And all three have been clogging shooting lanes, registering a combined 13 blocked shots.

Matthews has won 26 of 43 draws for a 60.3% success rate. Guess who swiped the puck back to the point ahead of Simon Benoit's Game 3 winner?

The Leafs are up 3-0 in the series and 3-0 in the Matthews line's 36 five-on-five minutes, most of which have come against the Sens' shutdown pairing of Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub, and the Shane Pinto-led forward line. Marner leads the club with six all-situations points. Matthews has five. Knies two.

Clutch all around - that's a phrase rarely uttered in the past about anything relating to Matthews, Marner, and the playoff pressure cooker. - John Matisz

Lightning have dug deep hole

After a soul-crushing 2-0 loss Thursday night, the Lightning now trail 2-0 in the Battle of Florida. Not great - and it's worse than it seems.

The Panthers deserved both wins. Tampa Bay's played well, too, but it's also been shooting itself in the foot. There's no room for any unforced errors in a first-round series between arguably two of the five best teams in the NHL.

In Game 1, Jon Cooper lost a coach's challenge that he should never have initiated, and Florida scored on the ensuing power play. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy struggled with screens all night and let in six goals on 17 shots.

In Game 2, forward Brandon Hagel delivered a dangerous hit on Aleksander Barkov midway through the third period. He was assessed a five-minute major and could face supplemental discipline from the league. (Barkov left the game.)

Meanwhile, another key piece, Anthony Cirelli, is grinding through an injury. The Selke Trophy-caliber center left in the middle of Game 1, and he logged only 15 minutes of ice time Thursday, 3:32 less than his regular-season average.

Tampa loses last change and the home crowd for Games 3 and 4 in Sunrise. - John Matisz

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