MLB offseason: Analysis for all major moves

The MLB offseason is underway. Follow along for analysis of all major transactions over the winter.

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Kyle Schwarber I Ward-Rodriguez I Sonny Gray I Semien-Nimmo I Dylan Cease

Orioles shock with $155M signing of Alonso

✍️ 5-year, $155M contract

What it means for Orioles: Mike Elias wasted no time pivoting off Kyle Schwarber. Less than 24 hours after Schwarber turned down the Orioles to remain in Philadelphia, Baltimore's president of baseball operations made an aggressive offer to sign Alonso. The 31-year-old is a huge get for an Orioles club that surprisingly ranked 11th in homers, 21st in OPS, and 24th in runs scored a season ago. Alonso and his 264 career home runs - a Mets franchise record - will slot into the middle of the order, helping to balance the left-handed bats and give protection to Gunnar Henderson while taking some of the offensive pressure off Adley Rutschman. Orioles ownership has stepped up in a big way following a disastrous season. The club has added roughly $192 million in salary by bringing in Alonso, Taylor Ward, Ryan Helsley, and Andrew Kittredge. There's obviously enormous risk in handing a first baseman in his 30s a substantial amount of money - and the Orioles are plenty familiar with how the Chris Davis deal aged - but given where the club is in their competitive window, it's a move well worth taking. Baltimore is one frontline starter away from looking very dangerous heading into next season. Maybe it uses Ryan Mountcastle or Coby Mayo to land a starter in a trade.

What it means for Mets: It's been a tough early offseason in Queens, as the club let longtime fan favorites Alonso, Edwin Díaz, and Brandon Nimmo depart. New York's front office seems to be welcoming a major clubhouse overhaul after last season's collapse, in which the team missed the playoffs. The Mets didn't seem to really even want to bring Alonso back last season, so it isn't a major surprise that they weren't really in the bidding again. Still, it's a little strange how easily they were willing to let him walk. David Stearns has brought in Marcus Semien and Devin Williams this winter - two players who could be considered reclamation projects. We'll see if there's a real impact move to come or if Stearns opts to make minor tweaks. Not only does Alonso's departure take a massive bat out of the lineup, but it also removes protection for Juan Soto. If the Mets don't bring in someone imposing to hit behind Soto, he very well could walk 150 times in 2026.

What it means for Red Sox: Alonso represented the best fit of any of the free agents available for Boston. The Red Sox need a slugging right-handed hitting first baseman to sit in the middle of the order. Alonso would have given them exactly what they've missed since trading Rafael Devers away over hurt feelings. Despite the fit, Boston reportedly didn't pursue Alonso with any real urgency. After back-to-back injury-plagued seasons of Triston Casas, it would make sense for Craig Breslow to try to find, at the very least, a right-handed hitting complement to share first base. However, needing to platoon that position can be viewed as a wasted roster spot. There are still plenty of other avenues in which the Red Sox can improve from an offensive standpoint. Still, now that the two biggest sluggers are off the market, the pressure will only begin to ramp up for a club that continuously says publicly how aggressive it's going to be to improve. Seeing Alonso go to a division rival hurts just a little more.

Dodgers land Díaz ... because of course they did

✍️ 3-year, $69M contract

What it means for Dodgers: When you're the two-time defending World Series champion, why not spoil yourselves and add baseball's best closer? Díaz will stabilize the back of a Dodgers bullpen that struggled tremendously last season despite enormous resources being dumped into it. His presence allows Roki Sasaki to enter spring training as a starter again. Tanner Scott, who inked a four-year, $72-million contract with Los Angeles ahead of last season, will likely become MLB's most expensive setup man. Yes, that means the Dodgers have spent $141 million on closers in consecutive seasons - but Díaz is far less of a gamble than Scott. The Puerto Rican won his third career Reliever of the Year award in 2025 after posting a 1.63 ERA and 0.87 WHIP with a 13.3 K/9. He's a three-time All-Star and has converted more than 30 saves four different times. He's worth every penny.

While the Dodgers made Díaz the richest closer in terms of AAV - they're going to pay a reliever a shocking $23 million per season - the overall dollar amount seems surprisingly ... low. Díaz opted out of the final three years and $57 million left on his deal with the New York Mets only to get a solid, but not substantial, raise. It was reported that the 31-year-old was seeking a deal north of $100 million, so Los Angeles has to be thrilled with both the total dollars and short term they had to commit. The Mets also reportedly made an initial three-year, $66-million offer to Díaz, but it seems he looked at the Dodgers as his best chance to win what would be his first World Series, and a chance for a fresh start.

Schwarber stays in Philly

✍️ 5-year, $150M contract

What it means for Phillies: This always felt like the most logical outcome. Dave Dombrowski wasn't going to allow arguably his team's most important bat to leave in free agency, and it never seemed like Schwarber wanted to leave Philly, so the two sides eventually settled on a hefty but reasonable contract. Once it was reported that the Pittsburgh Pirates offered Schwarber a four-year, $125-million deal, it seemed like the market was where it needed to be for him to sign soon. Paying $150 million for a designated hitter comes with significant risk, though Schwarber possesses plenty attributes that help justify the deal. The 32-year-old has power to all fields and is coming off a year where he ranked in the 98th percentile or better in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, bat speed, and walk rate. While he does strike out a lot, the underlying stats are predictors of his bat remaining elite for years to come.

The Phillies now have Schwarber, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper signed through at least the 2030 season. That's significant money tied up to an aging core, but they all currently remain productive. With Schwarber re-signed, Dombrowski can now focus his attention on addressing the bottom of the lineup, finding an everyday catcher, and bringing in some starting pitching help. Hopefully Schwarber coming off the board gets the rest of the market moving for the other top free-agent position players.

Red Sox add intriguing arm in Oviedo for Top 100 prospect

What it means for Red Sox: Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow continues to add to the club's starting pitching depth by dealing from a deep crop of young players. Johan Oviedo can look like a budding ace in one start and struggle the next, but he's exactly the type of arm that teams are willing to roll the dice on. Breslow is clearly hoping the right-hander can benefit from getting in the club's pitching lab. Oviedo generates plenty of whiffs and strikeouts while limiting hard contact by missing barrels. He's coming off an abbreviated season in which he posted a career-best 24.7% strikeout rate and 35.3% hard-hit rate. Although Oviedo posted the highest walk rate of his career (13.5%), part of that lack of command could stem from missing all of 2024 following Tommy John surgery. With Oviedo's ceiling being a potential No. 2 or 3 starter and his floor as a capable rotation piece, it's hard not to like the move for Boston - especially when factoring in his salary. He's projected to earn $2 million in 2026 through arbitration and has an additional year of team control. The Red Sox have now built up a lot of back-end starting pitching depth and have more than enough pieces to go out and make a bigger move for a top-of-the-rotation starter like Cole Ragans or Freddy Peralta.

What it means for the Pirates: Pittsburgh has struggled for what seems like forever to develop impact position players, but it's had steady success finding arms. Oviedo always seemed like the odd man out heading into 2026, and that starting pitching pipeline led the Pirates to deal from a position of strength to acquire what they hope will be a foundational piece moving forward. Garcia ranked as the No. 3 prospect for the Red Sox but was heavily blocked in Boston's crowded outfield. Spending more time in the minors likely won't drive his development. He'll get a chance to play every day in Pittsburgh, and the big-league club will hope his right-handed power bat and solid defensive play will help it build toward becoming a winning club in 2026 and beyond. The Pirates had two players hit more than 15 home runs last season, while Garcia hit 21 across Double-A and Triple-A as a 22-year-old. He'll need to cut down on his strikeout rate to be successful at the MLB level, but the power is there. With Pittsburgh expected to have some payroll flexibility this winter, adding Garcia, who comes with a rookie minimum salary and six years of control, likely allows the club to spend on a different area of need. It's hard not to like this trade for both sides.

Blue Jays bring in KBO MVP Ponce

✍️ 3-year, $30M contract

What it means for the Blue Jays: Toronto continues to be aggressive in the pitching market, and now have as many as nine potential rotation options heading into 2026 after inking right-hander Cody Ponce to a three-year deal. The 31-year-old struggled during his brief MLB career, posting a 5.86 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and 7.8 K/9 across 55 1/3 innings (20 appearances) from 2020-21. Ponce then bounced around in Japan for three seasons before truly breaking out last year in Korea.

But the Ponce from the majors is far different than the one that starred in the KBO. He's upped his velocity and added a cutter. Together, those tools made him into the most dominant pitcher in Korea in 2025. While the KBO is clearly not the same standard as MLB, Ponce's numbers were still so absurdly good that you have to be intrigued with how his stuff will translate. In 29 starts with Hanwha, Ponce went 17-1 with a 2.04 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 252 strikeouts over 180 2/3 innings.

Toronto's made a stronger commitment to scouting in Asia in recent years, and a three-year pact clearly means they're confident in his stuff. The club signed Eric Lauer out of Korea last December, and Yariel Rodríguez out of Japan the year prior. They were also heavily linked to Roki Sasaki. What role Ponce plays to open the season remains to be seen, but he likely projects as a starter. That means the Blue Jays could look to move another arm this winter in order to add to the bullpen, or fill holes offensively. Kevin Gausman, Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage, and José Berríos made up the projected rotation prior to the Ponce signing. Maybe Toronto looks to deal Berríos, or uses Ponce as a swingman, not unlike Lauer. Ponce's contract isn't that tough to absorb if he is a reliever, especially with those strikeout numbers. His arrival also allows the club to manage Yesavage's innings in his sophomore season.

Coming off an agonizing World Series loss, the Blue Jays have already committed $256 million to pitching this winter, and have a projected CBT payroll of roughly $280 million for 2026. It's clear the Blue Jays entered the offseason with a focus on adding pitcher's with elite swing-and-miss stuff in the rotation.

Williams gets fresh start in Queens

✍️ 3-year, $51M contract

What it means for the Mets: President of baseball operations David Stearns secured some insurance in case he's unable to re-sign Edwin Díaz by inking Devin Williams to a $51-million deal. It seems like a considerable sum for a reliever coming off an inconsistent year, but the early indication this winter is that the top-end relievers are getting paid. Williams' tenure with the New York Yankees was a tale of two seasons; the right-hander struggled over the first half, eventually losing the closer's role after posting a 5.73 ERA over his first 44 appearances. Some of that was bad luck, as indicated by Williams' 3.57 FIP, and he still managed to put up big strikeout numbers (11.45 K/9).

Williams was then dominant down the stretch in a setup role, producing a 2.50 ERA, 0.36 FIP, and 34 strikeouts over 18 innings. His 42.4% strikeout rate over the final two months of the season was second in the majors among relievers behind only Mason Miller. That performance - and his exceptional years in Milwaukee - is likely what made Stearns feel confident in handing over a three-year guaranteed contract.

Williams not only addresses a major need with Ryan Helsley's departure, but also gives the club a capable late-inning arm, and takes some pressure off needing to potentially spend $100 million to retain Díaz. Of course, this is certainly a gamble by the Mets. If Díaz signs elsewhere, there's an argument that could eventually be deployed that Williams' deal was a misallocation of resources. But the Mets have an abundance of holes left to fill this winter, and are already carrying a projected $277-million CBT payroll. It's going to be an expensive winter for Queens, and even Steve Cohen can't hand out money to everyone.

Orioles bank on Helsley bounce-back

✍️ 2-year, $28M contract

What it means for Baltimore: The Orioles found their new closer in Ryan Helsley with Félix Bautista expected to miss most - if not all - of next season. Helsley inked a two-year deal, but his 2027 opt-out essentially makes it a one-year contract if he's able to return to his All-Star form from two seasons ago. Helsley was one of the best relievers in MLB from 2022-24, posting a 1.83 ERA and 12.1 K/9 over 167 2/3 innings while converting 82 saves. The 31-year-old allowed more contact, home runs, and walks last season, and he especially struggled following a trade to the Mets, posting a 7.20 ERA over 20 innings. Helsley said he was tipping his fastball with New York, and Baltimore clearly isn't too concerned. Neither was a majority of the league - despite Helsley's troubles, he reportedly received interest from as many as 15 clubs, with some even considering converting him to a starter.

Teams likely valued Helsley's elite four-seam fastball velocity (99th percentile), though he needs to do a better job of complementing it with his offspeed pitches: Opponents slugged .667 off his fastball in 2025 compared to .367 in 2024. The Orioles have been one of the busiest clubs to start the winter, already bringing in outfielders Taylor Ward and Leody Taveras in addition to reliever Andrew Kittredge. Ownership has obviously given president of baseball ops Mike Elias clearance to add payroll. Expect Elias to keep bolstering a bullpen that ranked 26th in ERA and 27th in WHIP last season.

Blue Jays make major splash with Cease

✍️ 7-year, $210M contract

What it means for Toronto: How is that for an early offseason statement from the reigning American League champs? The Blue Jays reportedly handed Dylan Cease the richest free-agent contract in franchise history to join what's arguably the most talented rotation in the AL alongside Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage, and José Berríos. Cease was one of the best starting pitchers available this winter, so it's a bit of a shock he signed so early. But considering he inked a $210-million deal, maybe it shouldn't be a complete surprise.

Cease is an exciting addition for Toronto. He's entering his age-30 season, making him younger than Ranger Suárez and Michael King. He's also coming off a year in which he led all qualified MLB starters with an 11.52 K/9. Cease has been exceptionally durable throughout his career, making at least 32 starts in each of the last five campaigns and not landing on the IL since 2021. He's also one of just four active pitchers to have struck out at least 200 batters and made at least 30 starts in five straight seasons. Cease ranked in the 80th percentile or higher in chase rate, fastball velocity (88th), K% (89th), and whiff rate (95th) in 2025 - he has elite stuff and keeps the ball in the yard. His slider was exceptional last season as well, generating a 43% whiff rate with batters slugging just .374 on the pitch.

But there are some areas Cease will need to clean up for him to justify the contract. He recorded a career-worst 4.55 ERA this past season, though a 3.56 FIP makes that a little easier to digest. Cease also posted a 1.33 WHIP, in part due to a 3.8 BB/9 that finished as the second-worst mark of his career since becoming an everyday starter in 2021. Additionally, he could pitch deeper into games. While he's consistently hit the 30-start plateau, he's never surpassed more than 189 innings, and he threw just 168 innings in 2025, with 19 of his 32 outings lasting five innings or less. Chasing fewer strikeouts and walking fewer batters could eventually lead to Cease pitching deeper into games, but that's more of a minor critique.

Blue Jays ownership and the front office deserve major credit for aggressively pursuing Cease. It clearly made the right-hander a priority and acted swiftly. With Gausman and Bieber pitching on expiring deals, the rotation needed more long-term stability, and the team has that with Cease locked up. Toronto's luxury-tax payroll currently sits around $275 million, per Roster Resource, so it'll be interesting to see how much the Blue Jays are willing to spend on a free-agent bat like Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette. They carried a top-five payroll last season, and it appears they'll be among MLB's biggest spenders again. This is a huge message to the rest of the league: Toronto believes its World Series window is fully open, and it's going to spend like the big-market team it is.

Red Sox add Gray to rotation

What it means for Boston: Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said his priority this winter is to bring in impact starting pitching, and the first domino fell with the addition of Gray. The veteran right-hander is a nice pickup for the Red Sox, but the perception of this trade changes depending on what, if anything, Breslow does to the rotation next. Gray should be viewed as a No. 3 starter at this point in his career, meaning Boston still needs to add an impact pitcher to slot in behind Garrett Crochet. The Red Sox are paying Gray $21 million in 2026, with the Cardinals covering the other $20 million of his salary, affording Breslow some additional financial flexibility. The organization's improved pitching depth in the lower levels allowed Breslow to swing this deal without parting with anyone of real significance.

Gray's coming off a season in which he posted his highest ERA (4.28) and WHIP (1.23) since 2018, but he threw 180 innings, reached the 200-strikeout plateau for a second straight campaign, and led the NL with a 5.39 K/BB. Gray's 3.39 FIP, stellar control, and impressive off-speed stuff likely alleviate any concerns about his drop in fastball velocity. Expect Gray to utilize his splitter even more under pitching coach Andrew Bailey. This is a great move for the Red Sox, as long as they're still aiming to add a top-tier starter.

What it means for St. Louis: Of course, Chaim Bloom teamed up with his former club to pull off his first major move leading the Cardinals. Clearly, St. Louis is finally embracing a rebuild. Convincing Gray to not only waive his no-trade clause, but to sell ownership on eating roughly half of his money owed to receive a better return is great work from Bloom. Fitts has 15 MLB starts on his resume and is an option for the rotation heading into next season. The 25-year-old doesn't come with a high ceiling, but he can be a capable back-of-the-rotation arm or eventually slide into a relief role. Clarke is the key piece here, though he's further away. The 22-year-old pitched in A-Ball last season, striking out 60 over 38 innings and not allowing a home run. However, he walked 27 batters, hit another 12, and threw 14 wild pitches. Clarke has the stuff to be a really good starter, but his control needs to be much better. Landing pitching help for the present and future while shedding significant salary is an easy win for Bloom.

Rangers trade Semien to Mets for Nimmo

What it means for Texas: Rangers president of baseball operations Chris Young is reimagining an offense that finished 22nd in runs scored and 26th in OPS. Texas cut ties with three underachieving regular bats over a 72-hour span in Adolis García, Jonah Heim, and now Semien; each of those players had a sub-.700 OPS in 2025. Semien remains an elite defender, but the 34-year-old's had a pair of underwhelming offensive seasons. While the Rangers took on more money (roughly $20 million) and term (two additional years) by bringing in Nimmo, they get a younger and better offensive player who helps fill a need in the corner outfield. Nimmo isn't an elite hitter, but he is coming off three straight seasons with at least 20 homers while averaging a .773 OPS. Young obviously wanted to deal Semien while he still had value. The Rangers have a number of options they can mix and match at the position.

What it means for the Mets: New York is shaking up a core that missed the 2025 postseason. Moving the club's longest-tenured player is a major shot at the clubhouse by president of baseball operations David Stearns. The Mets need to get better defensively, and Semien at second base will go a long way in that department - especially when he's playing up the middle with Francisco Lindor. Stearns will also hope a change of scenery can bring out a little more from Semien's bat. Nimmo's departure leaves a hole in the outfield and creates more roster flexibility, which the Mets can address either via trade or in free agency. Signing Cody Bellinger or Kyle Tucker would fill that void, or maybe they'll trade for an outfielder like Jarren Duran. The Semien deal will look a lot better if it's complemented by another big move - otherwise, it's a gamble on a player showing signs of decline.

Braves sign Raisel Iglesias

✍️ 1-year, $16M contract

What it means for the Braves: Credit to Alex Anthopoulos for retaining one of the few closers on the free-agent market at a fraction of what Edwin Díaz and Robert Suarez will cost. Iglesias is currently projected to be the third-highest paid reliever in MLB next season, though not having to commit to multiple years is a win for the Braves. He's coming off another excellent campaign in which he posted a 0.99 WHIP over a career-high 70 appearances. The 35-year-old particularly excelled in the second half, posting a 0.34 ERA over his final 27 outings. Bringing back Iglesias checks off a significant need for Anthopoulos this winter as he tries to retool a club that missed the postseason.

Angels trade Ward to Orioles for Rodriguez

What it means for the Orioles: It was a surprise to see the Orioles move on from Rodriguez - especially for a rental - but Mike Elias has shown a willingness to deal players with control for a key player on an expiring deal in recent years (i.e. Corbin Burnes). You can understand the organization looking for more certainty, and the Orioles didn't think it they had it in Rodriguez, who's dealt with a number of injuries in recent years. Elias believed it was the right time to sell relatively high on Rodriguez's potential, and he was able to acquire an impact bat without paying big in free agency. Ward will be a welcome addition to a Baltimore team that surprisingly struggled to hit and score runs in 2025 - its outfielders ranked 26th in fWAR. His 36 homers were more than double the Orioles' season leader (Gunnar Henderson), and Ward also would have led the club in OPS. If Ward plays well enough, Baltimore could issue him a qualifying offer at the end of the season.

What it means for the Angels: Los Angeles was expected to move either Ward or Jo Adell this winter and understandably traded the former, who's on an expiring deal and set to earn more than double Adell's salary in arbitration. Acquiring Rodriguez is a gamble given his struggles to stay healthy, but it's a necessary one for a team like the Angels that's failed for years to develop pitching. Rodriguez is entering his age-26 season and has four additional years of club control. He should benefit from working under L.A.'s new pitching coach, Mike Maddux. Regardless of whether it works out, this is a deal the Angels have to make every time. Clearing out nearly $14 million in Ward's salary creates some flexibility for Perry Minasian, too.

Mariners re-sign Josh Naylor

✍️ 5-year, $92.5M contract

What it means for the Mariners: Some fits are just too perfect. Naylor was a great deadline addition for Seattle, and it only made sense to extend the partnership. Naylor could have waited out the market and potentially gotten more money, but instead, he took a deal that gives him long-term security at a fair price in a place where he feels comfortable. There's plenty of value in that for a player, and the waiting game in free agency isn't for everyone. Some teams might hesitate to hand a first baseman a five-year contract, but Naylor is only entering his age-29 season and shouldn't age too poorly. He hardly strikes out, he draws walks, and he has some sneaky athleticism. Naylor also posted a wRC+ of at least 118 in each of the last four seasons, so even with some regression, he projects to be at least an average first baseman later in his deal. Most importantly, the Mariners are set up for success in their current window. While more additions are necessary, retaining Naylor goes a long way toward making Seattle the favorite to win the AL West again next season.