Picking the winner of every game in the 2026 NCAA Tournament

March Madness is finally here, and the bracket is all set.

Whether you make picks by analytical profile, team name, or distance from a Wendy's, and whether you spend three days, three hours, or three minutes on making selections for the Big Dance, there's always a new variation of the NCAA Tournament bracket.

Here, we'll break down each matchup through all five rounds of March Madness and pick winners for every game until we eventually crown a national champion.

Let the Madness begin!

Jump to:
East | West | South | Midwest
Final Four | National Championship

East Region

Duke has played six mid-major teams this season, winning by an average of 43.8 points per game. There is no chance the Blue Devils lose here.

Winner: Duke

The Buckeyes have a true superstar in Bruce Thornton, but TCU's defense is built to get the ball out of the opposing point guard's hands. Horned Frogs head coach Jamie Dixon has 14 more NCAA Tournament wins than Ohio State's Jake Diebler, who has zero.

Winner: TCU

This is the most likely 12-over-5 upset in the field. Northern Iowa allows the least amount of transition in the entire country, and St. John's loves to run offensively. Assuming the Panthers make some timely shots, they'll be able to pull off the sizable upset.

Winner: Northern Iowa

Cal Baptist has a diminutive superstar in Dominique Daniels, but the 5-foot-10 point guard will have his hands full with Kansas' No. 10-ranked defense. The Lancers are 0-3 against Big 12 teams this year, including a 31-point loss to BYU.

Winner: Kansas

It's rare to say about the lower-seeded mid-major team, but South Florida is the more athletic group. If Louisville can't make more than 33% of its threes with a banged-up star in Mikel Brown, then the Bulls are primed to pull off one of the more popular upsets of the first round.

Winner: South Florida

North Dakota State won the Summit League by having the best rebounding margin in the conference, but Michigan State has one of the best rebounding margins in the entire country. The Spartans will beat the Bison at their own game.

Winner: Michigan State

This will be another popular upset pick, but I'm not buying it. The Bruins were playing some of their best basketball of the year in the Big Ten Tournament before Donovan Dent and Tyler Bilodeau went down, and UCF's defense has fallen off a cliff after a good start to Big 12 play. UCLA's two injured starters are expected to be back for this one.

Winner: UCLA

Furman is actually the taller team in this game, and head coach Bob Richey has already pulled off a massive tournament upset before. But UConn is far too physical on both ends of the floor for a skill-based Paladins squad that has one of the worst two-way turnover margins in the nation.

Winner: UConn

Second Round

Sure, the Horned Frogs can take away a lead ball-handler, but what happens when that player is 6-foot-9 National Player of the Year frontrunner Cameron Boozer? Not to mention TCU will have extreme issues scoring against the nation's No. 2 overall defense.

Winner: Duke

Northern Iowa forces opponents to be slow, methodical, and focused on shotmaking. While that may work against St. John's, having to do it against one of the best shotmakers in the country in Darryn Peterson is far too tall a task.

Winner: Kansas

The Spartans were among the very worst turnover rate teams in the Big Ten this season, and South Florida loves to pressure the ball. In this potential matchup, the Bulls would work toward making point guard Jeremy Fears very uncomfortable, and Michigan State doesn't have any other on-ball options. Cinderella lives to fight another round.

Winner: South Florida

You need to be a competent rim scoring team to take advantage of a UConn defensive unit that dares you to finish at the hoop over its rim protection, and UCLA does not get to the rim much at all.

Winner: UConn

Sweet 16

A blue blood matchup in the Sweet Sixteen, how great would that be? These teams have already played this season, and though Peterson missed the game for the Jayhawks, Boozer had a relatively poor outing by his standards, and Duke still won easily. It should be more of the same here.

Winner: Duke

The Cinderella run has to end eventually. Dan Hurley is as proven an NCAA Tournament schemer as anyone, and he'll have a full week to prepare for the unique South Florida system.

Winner: UConn

Elite Eight

UConn has no true matchup for Boozer, with 4-man Alex Karaban lacking physicality and 5-man Tarris Reed not quick enough on the perimeter. This would be a spot for the National Player of the Year leader to have a marquee performance and get his team to the Final Four.

Winner: Duke

West Region

The whole "fins up" thing at LIU home games was a lot of fun to kick off Champ Week, but let's get serious here. Arizona wins handily.

Winner: Arizona

Technically, Villanova is the team from a power conference. But the Big East and Mountain West each had three top-50 KenPom teams and Utah State has two more top-50 KenPom wins. The Aggies are the better squad here.

Winner: Utah State

High Point's up-tempo offense and turnover-forcing defense has laid waste to inferior competition this season, but that's all the team has seen this year. The Panthers haven't played a single power conference or top-100 team this year, making this matchup a likely rude awakening.

Winner: Wisconsin

Hawaii's rotation is super tall and old, with only upperclassmen playing meaningful minutes. Arkansas is freshman-heavy and built around two smaller guards. But Darius Acuff is playing better than anyone in the country not named Cameron Boozer, and Hawaii's defensive scheme (which doesn't send much help) will allow Acuff to work his magic one-on-one.

Winner: Arkansas

Whether Texas or NC State advance from the First Four, neither will have a clear matchup to guard BYU superstar AJ Dybantsa, who is good enough to win a game all by himself, even with the Cougars missing key starter Richie Saunders. There will be no defense regardless of who plays in this game.

Winner: BYU

Mark Few has not lost in the Round of 64 since way back in 2008. That's 16 straight NCAA Tournaments with at least one victory. There's absolutely no reason to expect that streak to end this year.

Winner: Gonzaga

Both teams are great on the interior but have major issues controlling the ball offensively. However, Miami is the far better defensive unit at forcing steals and capitalizing in transition. The battle between forwards Mark Mitchell and Malik Reneau will be among the best of the first round.

Winner: Miami

In its five games against power conference teams this year, Queens has allowed 94, 94, 106, 108, and 111 points. And Purdue is the No. 1 offense in adjusted efficiency. The only question here is whether or not Purdue will top 100 points.

Winner: Purdue

Second Round

Utah State will really struggle with Arizona's massive frontline and physicality, already sitting as one of the worst rebounding teams in the Mountain West. The Wildcats should roll once again.

Winner: Arizona

Arkansas' major weakness is its interior defense against opposing forwards and bigs, but Wisconsin's frontline is much more lethal from beyond the arc. While the Badgers' duo of Nick Boyd and John Blackwell are electric scorers, neither is a great option to defend the elite isolation of Acuff.

Winner: Arkansas

BYU has arguably been the worst team ranked as a No. 6 seed or higher over the last two months. The Cougars have gone just 7-10 over their last 17 games after starting 16-1. This squad just isn't that good, and that will become very clear against Gonzaga.

Winner: Gonzaga

Miami has the frontcourt size to contend with Purdue's oversized front line, the perimeter defense to handle Braden Smith off the bounce, and the rim scoring to attack the Boilermakers' lack of rim protection. Purdue will be a popular Final Four pick after running through the Big Ten Tournament, but an early exit could be in store for this squad.

Winner: Miami

Sweet 16

Unlike Arkansas' other opponents, Arizona does have good options to throw onto Acuff. Considering Arizona is 3-0 against the SEC with dominant 29- and 21-point wins against Auburn and Alabama, the Wildcats should have little issue taking down the Razorbacks.

Winner: Arizona

Avoiding Purdue here would be favorable for Gonzaga. Miami may have the size to defend Zags star Graham Ike down low, but not enough depth to keep up with the deep and transition-heavy Gonzaga attack.

Winner: Gonzaga

Elite Eight

Mark Few against his former assistant Tommy Lloyd for a chance at the Final Four. What a storyline. In this case, the student has become the master, as Arizona is simply better than Gonzaga at playing a rim-heavy, up-tempo style. The Wildcats should have the easiest path to the Final Four of any No. 1 seed.

Winner: Arizona

South Region

It doesn't matter who wins the 16-seed play-in game. Florida advances with ease.

Winner: Florida

Iowa has struggled with size and athleticism all season, but that's not a strength of Clemson's, especially with starting big man Carter Welling recently ruled out for the season. The duo of Bennett Stirtz and Ben McCollum is enough to push the Hawkeyes forward.

Winner: Iowa

McNeese's extreme havoc defense leads the entire country in defensive turnover rate, but Vanderbilt is one of the most steady offenses in the country with an elite backcourt of Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles.

Winner: Vanderbilt

The Cornhuskers' unique defense allows basically nothing in the paint and forces you to beat them from the outside. Troy only has two players on its roster shooting above 33% from deep (brothers Cooper and Cobi Campbell). That is not enough firepower to pull off the upset.

Winner: Nebraska

The Tar Heels will be without star Caleb Wilson, but still arguably have the two best players in this game with Henri Veesaar and Seth Trimble. VCU has done an excellent job beating inferior opponents this year, but has struggled scaling up in competition. UNC wins a tight one here.

Winner: North Carolina

Illinois won its mid-major games by 35 points on average this season. The tallest team in the country will have endless options to throw on Ivy League championship hero TJ Power.

Winner: Illinois

Texas A&M's famous "Bucky Ball" system thrives off forcing turnovers, and that has been the biggest issue for Saint Mary's offensively this season. The Aggies should be able to pressure their way to a victory.

Winner: Texas A&M

Kelvin Sampson in the Round of 64 at Houston is a pretty safe bet. The Cougars should roll here.

Winner: Houston

Second Round

Remember how we just mentioned Iowa struggles with athleticism? In steps Florida, one of the biggest and most athletic teams in the country. That spells doom for the Hawkeyes.

Winner: Florida

Nebraska's noted rim denial defense will have less of an impact against Vanderbilt, one of the best shotmaking squads in the country. The Commodores are small on the interior, but 3-point-heavy Nebraska won't take advantage.

Winner: Vanderbilt

This matchup against the giant Fighting Illini is likely where the absence of Wilson will make a major difference for the Tar Heels. Illinois' size and skill combo is just too much for an undermanned squad to handle.

Winner: Illinois

The Cougars are No. 6 nationally in turnover offense, which is an issue for Texas A&M, which much prefers to play in transition off takeaways. Houston should also have a massive advantage on the boards.

Winner: Houston

Sweet 16

This would be Round 3 of an awesome matchup that saw Florida pick up a tough road win and Vanderbilt dominate in the SEC Tournament. The Gators likely get the last laugh so long as their shotmaking isn't as poor as their last meeting.

Winner: Florida

The key to beating Houston's famous aggressive defense is via the pass, and Illinois' skilled big men have the court vision to make the right reads. So long as the 3-pointers are falling for the Fighting Illini, they'll advance here.

Winner: Illinois

Elite Eight

In a matchup of two teams that blend size and skill as well as any in the country, it's Illinois' guard play that should be the difference, with Keaton Wagler and Kylan Boswell standing above any of the options Florida trots out on the perimeter.

Winner: Illinois

Midwest Region

Both of Michigan's potential opponents are right around 200 in KenPom, and Michigan's one contest against a team in that ranking range was a 102-50 win over La Salle.

Winner: Michigan

One of the most stunning contrasts in the entire tournament, the No. 2 dunk team in the country in Georgia plays a very skill-based Saint Louis squad led by under-the-rim big man Robbie Avila. While Saint Louis is an awesome story, the Billikens have struggled of late and should have issues with the pressure Georgia will put on their offensive system.

Winner: Georgia

While Texas Tech certainly isn't the same team without star big man JT Toppin, the Red Raiders still have more than enough perimeter firepower. That'll be enough against an Akron team with no notable interior presence.

Winner: Texas Tech

With or without starting guard Aden Holloway, Alabama is still one of the best perimeter scoring teams in the country, and Hofstra is the No. 2 rim defense in the country. The Crimson Tide's long-range shooting won't let Hofstra flex its muscles around the rim.

Winner: Alabama

It would truly be an incredible story if Miami (Ohio) got to play Tennessee, the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the country in a battle of strength versus skill. Tennessee is a flawed group, but whether it's a reeling SMU squad or an unproven Miami (Ohio) team, the Volunteers should advance.

Winner: Tennessee

Wright State is one of the least physically imposing teams in the field, with no player over 6-foot-9 or heavier than 225 pounds. Virginia's three-man interior wrecking crew of Thijs De Ridder, Johann Grunloh, and Ugonna Onyenso should have a massive advantage here.

Winner: Virginia

One of the nation's most expensive rosters against one the field's best mid-major teams is one of the most intriguing storylines of the first round. Kentucky has been the epitome of average all season, and Santa Clara's explosive, deep roster absolutely has the ability to pull off an upset.

Winner: Santa Clara

These are two of the best turnover defenses in the country, but Iowa State laps the field in every other category. This will be an easy win for the Cyclones.

Winner: Iowa State

Second Round

Georgia thrives off forcing turnovers and Michigan tends to cough it up too often, but that one element of the game isn't enough to overshadow the rebounding and interior edge the Wolverines have. Don't be surprised if this game is closer than expected, though.

Winner: Michigan

Alabama is 4-6 when teams grab more than 38% of their second chances against its defense, but 19-3 when teams grab fewer than that number. Texas Tech has cleared that number just one time since Toppin went down, becoming much more perimeter oriented. The Crimson Tide are hard to beat if you can't take advantage on the glass.

Winner: Alabama

Virginia is among the ten best interior defenses in the country, which should spell doom for a Tennessee team that only has one player with more than 42 threes all year long. Expect a plethora of rejections from the Cavaliers bigs.

Winner: Virginia

Iowa State is one of the best rim offenses in the country, and Santa Clara's interior defense is by far its biggest weakness on that end. Iowa State should be running layup drills around the hoop in this one.

Winner: Iowa State

Sweet 16

While Texas Tech won't take advantage of the Crimson Tide's interior, Michigan's loaded frontcourt certainly will, and its ability to switch ball screens will make life tough for Alabama point guard Labaron Philon.

Winner: Michigan

Virginia finished just 15th in the ACC in offensive turnover rate and coughed it up on 29% of possessions against Dayton, the best pressure defense it has played all year. Iowa State's defense is far superior, and should be able to turn over the Cavaliers at will.

Winner: Iowa State

Elite Eight

Iowa State will be able to turn Michigan over here, but the downhill offense with only sharpshooter Milan Momcilovic will likely have big issues trying to score on the elite defensive duo of Morez Johnson and Aday Mara down low. This should be a defensive battle that the Wolverines secure.

Winner: Michigan

Final Four

Illinois has the size and physicality to match up with Cameron Boozer, and a scheme that will force him away from the basket. If Duke is without Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba, these teams are relatively even from a talent perspective, and Illinois has the better backcourt. I'll take a mild upset with the Fighting Illini.

Winner: Illinois

One could argue these are the two best teams in the tournament, and they would square off in the semifinals. Arizona is the more well-rounded unit, it has arguably the best resume in the country in terms of victories, and can match Michigan in every area. The Wolverines likely have the higher ceiling, but Arizona has the safer floor.

Winner: Arizona

National Championship

If Arizona can take down Michigan in the Final Four, there isn't a team in the field I would pick over the Wildcats in the national championship game. Arizona has proven itself time and time again all season, and plays a matchup-proof style of basketball. Arizona is your national champion.

🏆 Winner: Arizona

Matthew Winick is a college basketball analyst and consultant. You can find his work on X at @matthewwinick.