Deal or No Deal - Will the Avalanche's Stars Remain Snowed In?
Mired in mediocrity, the Colorado Avalanche have seen production from their star players erode over the past month. While the team itself is doing relatively fine clinging to a wild card spot, fantasy owners have to be wondering when the madness will end. Who of the following, if any, should you trust?
C/LW Matt Duchene
Duchene is both Colorado's point leader and streakiest scorer. He started the season with only two points through the first 10 games, prompting speculation that he could be shipped out of town. He then rattled off 20 points in 14 November games. Anyone who hit the panic button and sold low or, perish the thought, outright dropped him, suffered immediate pangs of regret.
He's come back to earth, and while he hasn't been as dire as he was in October, his six points in 12 February games leaves a lot to be desired. Sadly, this is probably closer to what you can expect with regularity. Duchene will have months where he explodes and months where he does the polar opposite.
For the most part, you can probably expect a point every other game the rest of the season. The best you can hope for is to trade him at the top of one of his peaks, otherwise ride it out. As it is, you're stuck with him. You shouldn't drop him, but you also won't get a worthwhile return in a trade.
Verdict: NO DEAL
C/RW Nathan MacKinnon
Like Duchene, MacKinnon has only six points over his past month. His season has been one of diminishing returns going from a high of 14 points in November to the low of six in February. The All-Star break represents part of that drop, but it's still a disappointment for fantasy owners.
His two-point output against the Red Wings on Feb. 27 is encouraging. Another hopeful trend is the 21 shots on goal he's amassed over his last four games. His shooting percentage for February was a season-low 4.3% as he converted only two of 46 shots on goal. Considering his career average is 8.9%, he's bound to find a course correction soon.
He's the steadier hand, and will be of more value in head-to-head leagues because he'll usually help you every week, whereas Duchene will have his peaks and valleys. Because of MacKinnon's recent dip, it's worth a look to see if his owner is willing to cut ties for someone on an unsustainable hot streak like a Brayden Schenn (five points in two games) or Patric Hornqvist. If you own him, keep him.
Verdict: DEAL
LW Gabriel Landeskog
Landeskog has had the steadiest floor among the young stars of Colorado. He's ranged between seven and 12 points each month and has honed his craft as a playmaker who will occasionally score some goals.
Barring a quick uptick in production, however, Landeskog is looking at another decline in points by the end of the season. As a player who was ranked among the top 50 skaters in fantasy prior to the beginning of the season, his 15 goals and 28 assists are good, but not what was hoped for or expected.
The only silver lining is connected to next year, when his value will surely drop heading into drafts making him a potential steal. For now, he probably won't fetch enough of a return for a worthy trade and he's too good to drop on the waiver wire. He will provide more consistent production than Duchene down the stretch, but he lacks MacKinnon's overall upside.
If MacKinnon breaks out, though, so should Landeskog. They skate together on Colorado's top line and occasionally on the power play. If you already own MacKinnon, Landeskog makes an intriguing, albeit risky, handcuff if you can buy low.
Verdict: DEAL