DFS: The Slate, Part II - A Detailed Look at the Week 8 Schedule
Here's a breakdown of the late-Sunday and Monday slate of games (click here for Part I; all times ET):
New York Jets at Oakland Raiders, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Jets -3 (opened at PK)
O/U: 43 1/2 (opened at 44)
Weather: Chance of rain, 70 F; W wind @ 6 mph
Back-to-back solid performances has Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick on the DFS radar; the Raiders are 22nd in passing yards against and have allowed 11 TDs though the air. Fitz is a decent high-floor cash-game play. ... RB Chris Ivory cooled last week, and will be in tough to rebound against a formidable Oakland run defense. Fade him this week. ... WR Brandon Marshall is priced to match his production from the first five games, but he's in the WR1 discussion and is a safe play in all formats. His upside is huge. ... Eric Decker doesn't have the same floor, but makes for an intriguing GPP option. ... Raiders QB Derek Carr faces a significant test against a Jets D that buckled last week but has been mostly great. Carr has enough weapons to return value, but the upside is limited. ... RB Latavius Murray is tasked with toppling a New York defense allowing 3.4 YPC and just two rushing scores. This isn't his week. ... WRs Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree should form a decent 1-2 punch despite facing the Jets; Cooper has the higher upside and is a great tournament option, while Crabtree is a decent cost-saving option in cash games with a high floor at his price point.
Prediction: Jets 24, Raiders 17
DFS MVP: Brandon Marshall
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys, 4:25 p.m.
Line: Seahawks -4 1/2 (opened at -5 1/2)
O/U: 42 (opened at 40 1/2)
Weather: Dome
The Seahawks' Russell Wilson continues to be a frustrating DFS option, and isn't a recommended play this week. He's thrown for multiple touchdowns just once all season. ... RB Marshawn Lynch should thrive thanks to positive game flow and a matchup with a Cowboys run defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing rushers. ... Seattle receivers are best left unowned, since it's impossible to know how the passing game will shake out. ... TE Jimmy Graham's reduced role in the Seahawks' offense is a disappointment for Graham and fantasy players alike. Avoid him. ... Cowboys QB Matt Cassel isn't a good option - in real life or fantasy. ... RB Darren McFadden had his annual "Whaaaaa?" game last week, but let's not get carried away; Dallas will need to throw in this one, and Seattle allows 3.7 YPC. Stay away. ... WR Dez Bryant may return from a broken foot, and if he does, he should soak up the targets. Monitor his status, and unleash him in GPPs if you're feeling lucky. Remember, though, that Cassel is his QB. ... TE Jason Witten's decent floor is the only reason to roster him. This week, that floor is just too low to trust.
Prediction: Seahawks 26, Cowboys 17
DFS MVP: Marshawn Lynch
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Packers -2 1/2 (opened at -2 1/2)
O/U: 46 1/2 (opened at 46)
Weather: Clear, 64 F; W wind @ 13 mph
It isn't often we recommend an Aaron Rodgers fade, but a road game against the defensively elite Broncos qualifies. Let someone else take a chance on Rodgers this week. ... Denver is limiting opponents to 3.6 YPC and just four rushing touchdowns. Eddie Lacy was already struggling, and this isn't the matchup that will get him going. ... James Starks is also a recommended fade this week. ... WR Randall Cobb was expected to have a huge role in the Green Bay passing game with Jordy Nelson out. That hasn't materialized, and Cobb isn't a great play in Week 8 given his still-high price tag. ... James Jones may be the best bet for a score, making him a GPP flier. ... Davante Adams is returning from injury, and is also a tournament option given his depressed salary. ... Broncos QB Peyton Manning has thrown two TD passes and seven interceptions in the past three weeks. The Packers defense has permitted just seven scores through the air, with eight picks. Fade Manning hard this week. ... Green Bay's one weakness? It's allowing 4.7 YPC, opening the door for one of C.J. Anderson or Ronnie Hillman to excel. We're betting on Hillman, who has simply looked better than Anderson this season. ... WRs Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are overpriced this week; one of them may reach value, but picking between them is a fool's errand.
Prediction: Broncos 24, Packers 21
DFS MVP: Ronnie Hillman
Monday
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Panthers -6 1/2 (opened at -6 1/2)
O/U: 46 1/2 (opened at 45)
Weather: Rain showers, 61 F; N wind @ 6 mph
Colts QB Andrew Luck is once again relevant in DFS, but perhaps not this week; the Panthers are limiting opposing teams to a 58.8% completion rate, and Luck converts just 56.2% of his attempts. He's a GPP-only option, and far from the best one. ... RB Frank Gore is the key to Indy's success this week; the Panthers surrender 4.3 YPC, though Gore likely won't see enough work to be anything more than a low-cost cash-game option. ... WR T.Y. Hilton goes as Luck does, so perhaps this might be the week to fade him. ... Donte Moncrief has TDs in back-to-back weeks, but is score-dependent and will struggle to find the end zone this week. ... Andre Johnson is a non-factor. ... Panthers QB Cam Newton has struggled in the passing game in back-to-back weeks, but has run for a score in three of his past four games to add significant value. He's a high-floor cash-game stud this week, and makes for a great GPP stack with tight end Greg Olsen. ... RB Jonathan Stewart is at Newton's mercy when it comes to red-zone carries, but has had back-to-back impressive weeks and comes at a bargain; play him in cash-games to save some cap. ... None of Carolina's wideouts are reliable enough to consider in DFS. ... Olsen could fall victim to game flow if the Panthers build a big enough lead, but he should do enough in the first three quarters to return value.
Prediction: Panthers 27, Colts 17
DFS MVP: Cam Newton