DFS: The Slate, Part I: A Detailed Look at the Week 9 Schedule
Here's a breakdown of Sunday's early slate of games (click here for Part II; all times ET):
Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m.
Line: Packers -3 (opened at -2 1/2)
O/U: 46 (opened at 46 1/2)
Weather: Overcast, 56 F; NE wind @ 8 mph
Fresh off what was arguably the worst outing of his career, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers steps right into another tough matchup against the host Panthers. He's a long shot to return enough value to be a worthwhile pick in any format. ... RBs Eddie Lacy and James Starks square off against a Carolina run D allowing 4.2 yards per attempt; game flow should see both players earn work, but it's hard to know who to trust. Avoid both in cash-game scenarios. ... WR Randall Cobb has struggled mightily without Jordy Nelson; while he'll likely avoid Josh Norman - Carolina's wide receiver Kryptonite - he still isn't a recommended play. ... Neither are James Jones or Davante Adams, who will see tough coverage assignments in a game that will likely feature a whole lot of running. ... Panthers QB Cam Newton has been a reliable cash-game option, and remains on the radar against a Packers defense allowing nearly 270 passing yards per game. ... Newton and RB Jonathan Stewart should fare well against Green Bay's mediocre run defense (4.7 YPC against); Stewart has seen 20 or more carries three straight weeks, and that streak will almost certainly be extended in Week 9. Fire him up in all formats. ... TE Greg Olsen is the only reliable pass-catching option in the Carolina offense; that said, game flow probably won't work in his favor this week, and at his price, he's a recommended fade.
Prediction: Panthers 24, Packers 20
DFS MVP: Jonathan Stewart
Washington Redskins at New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
Line: Patriots -14 (opened at -14)
O/U: 51 1/2 (opened at 52 1/2)
Weather: Clear, 54 F; WNW wind @ 7 mph
Say this much for Washington QB Kirk Cousins: he'll need to throw until his arm falls off to keep up with the juggernaut Patriots. Whether those passes will yield fantasy value is up for debate - but at the very least, he's worth cash-game punt or GPP consideration. ... RBs Matt Jones and Alfred Morris will be afterthoughts in this one, while Chris Thompson is a GPP option with Washington expected to pass a bunch. ... WR DeSean Jackson could be a sneaky play, either on his own or as a combo option with Cousins. This one should be out of hand early, giving Jackson plenty of garbage-time space. ... Pierre Garcon isn't a recommended play as he becomes Cousins' third option in the passing game. ... TE Jordan Reed is in the same position as Jackson, and perhaps even a little more appealing due to positional scarcity. ... QB Tom Brady should only expect to play 3 1/2 quarters in this one - and you can bet he'll do plenty enough damage in those 52 1/2 game minutes to warrant a pick in all formats. ... RBs Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount manufacture points in different ways, but both should hit value easily in this one. ... WR Julian Edelman is a solid cash-game option, but is too expensive to rely on in GPPs - even in a Brady stack. ... Brandon LaFell is a much cheaper option, and is just as likely to score a touchdown. Fire him up in GPPs. ... TE Rob Gronkowski has 33 touchdowns in 37 career home games - many of them against far tougher opponents. He's the top tight end in DFS this week.
Prediction: Patriots 38, Redskins 17
DFS MVP: Tom Brady
Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m.
Line: Saints -7 1/2 (opened at -7 1/2)
O/U: 49 1/2 (opened at 48)
Weather: Dome
Titans QB Marcus Mariota returns to action after missing the previous two games - and he's in a great position to return value against a Saints defense that allowed six passing touchdowns in Week 8. Mariota's options are more limited than the Giants', but he's still a strong cash-game option. ... RB Antonio Andrews has been anointed the No. 1 job, but he isn't much of an improvement other the other options. Leave him unowned, even at his bargain price tag. ... WR Harry Douglas is slated to take over Kendall Wright's position in the slot, which could mean a big game. He's a terrific tournament option, particuarly in a pairing with Mariota. ... Dorial Green-Beckham has yet to break out; this could be the week, but you can't trust him in anything but deep GPPs - the track record just isn't there. ... TE Delanie Walker is a cinch for 10+ targets, and has the best chance of scoring. Fire him up in all formats. ... QB Drew Brees made up for a stunning lack of TD passes over the first eight weeks, erupting for seven last week. That's definitely his high-water showing of the season, but he's a strong play at home against a Titans D that has permitted 12 TDs through the air. ... RB Mark Ingram should see more than enough work to return value, with game flow working strongly in his favor. ... WRs Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead both broke out last week; if you go with one in Week 9, opt for Cooks, who has more talent and is healthier. ... TE Benjamin Watson is second-highest scoring tight end over the past four weeks; he's pricier now, but still a strong cash-game play.
Prediction: Saints 31, Titans 23
DFS MVP: Drew Brees
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m.
Line: Bills -3 (opened at -3)
O/U: 44 (opened at 44)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 47 F; W wind @ 9 mph
Three weeks into the Dan Campbell Era, we still have no idea what to make of the Miami offense. Based solely on the matchup, QB Ryan Tannehill is a risky play versus a Buffalo defense that is better than it has showed. Stay away this week. ... RB Lamar Miller should see plenty of work thanks to positive game flow; that said, the Bills have a top-5 run defense and limited Miller to 38 rushing yards in Week 3. He's a high-risk, medium-reward GPP play. ... Among Miami receivers, Jarvis Landry is the only one worth rostering in cash-game formats. Rishard Matthews can be used in tournaments, but his floor is considerably lower. ... It's been real, Jordan Cameron, but you're no longer fantasy relevant. ... Bills QB Tyrod Taylor returns to face a Dolphins defense that watched him go 21-for-29 for 277 yards and three scores in Week 3. Taylor will struggle to reach those heights this week, but his dual-threat designation makes him a strong tournament option. ... RB LeSean McCoy is as healthy as he'll be for the rest of the year; Miami limited him to 16 yards on 11 carries in September, but rank 22nd in rushing yards allowed. He's primed for a big game; trust him in all formats as a cheaper alternative to the big-ticket RB1s. ... WR Sammy Watkins is expected back, instantly improving the Buffalo passing game and making a Taylor-Watkins stack viable in GPPs. ... TE Charles Clay is a cash-game play as Taylor's No. 2 receiving option.
Prediction: Bills 24, Dolphins 21
DFS MVP: LeSean McCoy
St. Louis Rams at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m.
Line: Vikings -1 (opened at -2 1/2)
O/U: 40 1/2 (opened at 40 1/2)
Weather: Clear, 56 F; SSW wind @ 14 mph
There is nothing positive to say about Rams QB Nick Foles as a DFS option. As always, stay away. ... This is now RB Todd Gurley's offense - and all he's done with the opportunity is rack up 566 rushing yards and three touchdowns in four starts. With his salary still not level with his incredible talent, he should be on every cash-game roster you create. ... St. Louis pass catchers are among the riskiest propositions in daily fantasy; this game should be run-heavy, so avoid them. ... Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater has had just one solid DFS outing all season - and a second isn't in the cards this week, with the Rams having allowed just five passing TDs. ... RB Adrian Peterson has been surprisingly average since Week 3, scoring just one touchdown in that span. St. Louis allows just 3.7 YPC and has limited opponents to three rushing scores; Peterson should have a decent game, but will be hard-pressed to return enough value to be worth picking in either format. ... WR Stefon Diggs is the only pass catcher on either team worth considering; he has had three terrific games in a row, and remains a relative bargain on most sites. Use him with confidence in all formats, but keep TD expectations in check.
Prediction: Rams 24, Vikings 17
DFS MVP: Todd Gurley
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Line: Jets -8 (opened at -7 1/2)
O/U: 42 (opened at 43)
Weather: Clear, 53 F; NW wind @ 6 mph
Sunday marks the biggest test of the season for QB Blake Bortles and the rest of the Jaguars offense; at an implied point total of 17.75, there's not much value to be wrung out of it. Avoid Bortles, who matches up against a Jets defense that has posted a 12:8 TD:INT ratio and is limiting opponents to 229 passing yards per game. ... RB T.J. Yeldon is coming off his best game of the year, but New York has allowed just two rushing scores and 3.6 YPC; steer clear. ... If you're compelled to roster a Jacksonville receiver, go with Allen Robinson, who will be Bortles' go-to guy if the game gets out of hand. Robinson will still be hard-pressed to reach value, but he has a better shot than Allen Hurns or Julius Thomas. ... Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is on track to start despite torn ligaments in his left thumb; the Jaguars should offer little resistance, having recorded just three interceptions. Fitzpatrick is a decent tournament play. ... RB Chris Ivory faces a Jacksonville run D that is allowing a league-low 3.5 YPC; despite this, game flow should work in Ivory's favor, making him a high-floor cash-game play. ... WRs Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker have been limited in practice; go with the healthy option if one of them sits out. If they both play, favor Marshall, who has been Fitzpatrick's option of choice the majority of the season.
Prediction: Jets 24, Jaguars 13
DFS MVP: Brandon Marshall
Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m.
Line: Steelers -6 (opened at -5 1/2)
O/U: 48 (opened at 48)
Weather: Clear, 48 F; ENE wind @ 3 mph
Raiders QB Derek Carr has hit value in two of three road games, and gets an underwhelming Pittsburgh pass defense up next. Coming off a 333-yard, four-touchdown evisceration of an impressive Jets pass D, Carr is rosterable in all formats as a high-upside, low-cost option. ... RB Latavius Murray has had two decent games in a row, but lacks the upside for tournament play and should be faded in cash games in favor of more reliable and/or cheaper options. ... WRs Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree are both solid combo choices, though the cost savings on Crabtree would provide you with more roster flexibility. Either way, both players will see enough volume to hit value. ... Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger looked rusty last week - though facing one of the league's toughest defenses certainly didn't help; he's primed for a bounceback against a porous Oakland pass defense. Lock him up in GPPs as a high-floor QB with one of the strongest upsides of the week. ... RB DeAngelo Williams doesn't come with the usual injury-replacement discount on most sites; that said, he starred in the Pittsburgh offense while Le'Veon Bell served his early-season suspension and will see plenty of work. He's a strong play in either format. ... WR Antonio Brown is back on the top-3 radar; he's slightly underpriced this week, so take advantage. The discount is gone in Week 10. ... Martavis Bryant has major upside as a GPP play, but can't be trusted in cash games. ... TE Heath Miller is in the same situation, though his rock-bottom price makes him more viable in cash games as a punt play.
Prediction: Steelers 34, Raiders 27
DFS MVP: Antonio Brown