DFS: How Does Rajon Rondo Score Fantasy Points?
Rajon Rondo is a beautiful snowflake, twisting in a blizzard.
As recently as last season, some were wondering if the end of the road was in sight for a unique, flawed point guard who (still) couldn't shoot outside of the paint and was so detested by the Mavericks' locker room that the team cut the cord on him in the middle of a playoff series.
The knocks against Rondo should be a familiar refrain by now. He's a career 27.1% 3-point shooter. While his career free-throw percentage is a bad-but-passable 60.4%, that bottomed out at 39.7% last year, which is basically unheard of for an NBA player who doesn't own the indelicate physical stature of Shaquille O'Neal.
On top of his shooting woes, his effortless assists on his teammates' shots and his above-average rebounding were chalked up to playing alongside the likes of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, never mind that all three were in decline, injured or gone by Rondo's final seasons in Boston.
Yes, he could fill the stat-sheet, but could Rondo overcome his clunky shot mechanics and his reputation as a malcontent to sustain a career into his 30s? Rondo's decisive heel-turn with the Mavs was the black smoke that rallied many behind to proclaim that this season would be Rondo's funeral as an impact player.
From a DFS perspective, the first 19 games of his tenure with the Kings' have been fantasy gold. He has steadily outperformed his price all year and his salary has finally caught up to his renewed role as Sacramento's floor general.
DFS players need a clear view of how Rondo has managed to rack up fantasy points similar to those of Damian Lillard, Kyle Lowry and Isaiah Thomas.
In standard fantasy basketball scoring, Rondo has scored a total of 818.5 FP, not including a -34.5 FP penalty for his 69 turnovers. The chart below lists Rondo's stat totals, the FP that come from those totals, and the percentage of his his fantasy production that a specific stat accounts for.
This is how Rondo scores in DFS:
| STAT | TOTAL | FANTASY POINTS | % OF FP OUTPUT |
|---|---|---|---|
| AST | 203 | 304.5 | 37.2% |
| PTS | 245 | 245 | 29.9% |
| REB | 134 | 167.5 | 20.5% |
| STL | 32 | 64 | 7.8% |
| DD | 8 | 12 | 1.5% |
| TD | 4 | 12 | 1.5% |
| 3's | 17 | 8.5 | 1.2% |
| BLK | 2 | 4 | 0.5% |
Unsurprisingly, the league-leader in assists (10.7 per game) gets the largest chunk of his fantasy value from helpers.
Slightly more surprising is that Rondo's scoring has been of a greater value than his rebounding, even though he's averaging the highest rebounds per game (7.1) of his career.
One thing to consider is that while Rondo has made headlines with eight double-doubles and four triple-doubles this season, the minor bonuses in DFS for those achievements combine for just 3% of his overall value.
His turnover numbers only negate 4.2% of his positive production but Rondo's per-36-adjusted turnover rate (3.7) this season has been steady since 2011. You just have to take Rondo's looseness with the ball as collateral damage of his assists.
The best time to roster Rondo in DFS will be when he's facing teams that allow better chances for Rondo to assist his teammates. You can backwards-engineer those opportunities by looking at matchups where DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay can take advantage of the defense.
Any time where you could reasonably roster either of the Kings' two leading scorers is a time where Rondo can excel. He's proven he can survive and thrive in the NBA without a sure shot. Rumors of Rondo's demise were greatly exaggerated.