How Does Ricky Rubio Score Fantasy Points?
On Dec. 16, Ricky Rubio came just one point and two steals short of recording the sixth quadruple-double in NBA history.
Rubio would have joined Nate Thurmond (1974), Alvin Robertson (1986), Hakeem Olajuwon (twice in 1990) and David Robinson (1994) as the only players to tally double-digit figures in four offensive categories in a game.
Rubio finished with nine points, 12 assists, 10 rebounds, eight steals and just one turnover. That Rubio has shown an ability to excel in a variety of categories shows just how unique his profile is in the DFS landscape.
When it comes to daily fantasy, the quick and easy understanding of potential - that magic notion of a player's ceiling - is usually tied directly to points. With most elite fantasy players producing the majority of their value from points, it makes it difficult to quantify Rubio's outlook on a game-to-game basis.
Rubio is shooting just 32.2% from the field this season, an atrocious rate for a point guard. For a position that spends much of the game facilitating from outside the 3-point line, it would be nice if the Timberwolves' starting PG shot better than 25.6% from deep.
The biggest issue is that Rubio's shooting rates have dipped for the third straight season - Rubio's fifth in the league.
Rubio is still priced like a top-10 PG on most slates. For a fantasy sport that places so much value on scoring, how should DFS players adjust their own understanding of potential in regards to the talented - yet flawed - Spaniard?
In standard fantasy basketball scoring, Rubio has scored a total of 749.25 fantasy points. That does not include a -26 FP penalty for his 52 turnovers, which have negated just 3.5% of his production.
Listed in order of the greatest percentage of Rubio's fantasy potential that each statistical category accounts for, this is how he scores in DFS:
| STAT | TOTAL | FANTASY POINTS | % OF FP OUTPUT |
|---|---|---|---|
| AST | 196 | 294 | 39.2% |
| PTS | 211 | 211 | 28.2% |
| REB | 109 | 136.25 | 18.2% |
| STL | 48 | 96 | 12.8% |
| 3PTs | 11 | 5.5 | 0.7% |
| DD | 3 | 4.5 | 0.6% |
| BLK | 1 | 2 | 0.3% |
| TD | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
If these numbers look familiar, it's because we took a look at Rajon Rondo at the beginning of December and asked the same question. It turns out that Rubio is basically "Rondo-Lite", averaging 80% of the same per-game fantasy production as the Kings' PG.
What that means is that the same situations you would use Rondo in - matchups where the PG is expected to put up good assist totals - apply to Rubio but with reduced expectations.
The subtle difference is that, while the Kings know who is going to lead the team in scoring on a given night - DeMarcus Cousins or Rudy Gay - the Timberwolves' two leading scorers - Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns - are both just 20 years old and inconsistent on a game to game basis.
Wiggins accounts for 31.7% of the passes received from Rubio this season - more than any other player - but he has managed to shoot just 40% off of those passes, below Wiggins' season rate of 44%. That doesn't bode well for the value of a passer who relies so heavily on assists to anchor his DFS production.
The bottom line is that even once DFS players know how Rubio generates points, it's much harder to know when he will generate points. When such a large portion of a player's production is based on how others execute, game-to-game stability is a major issue.
Rubio will try to rebuild his broken shooting but just like a middle-aged Rondo, it's not clear whether he can. Until then, the most important advancements that can raise Rubio's DFS potential must be made by the likes of Wiggins, Towns and the host of young, raw talent up and down the roster.
When the T-Wolves' youth movement reaches their potential as scorers, Rubio will be there to orchestrate to proceedings - but only then will his true potential be realized in full.