Just two seasons ago, Anaheim topped the NHL with an average of 3.21 goals per game. In 2014-15, the team dipped to 11th, at 2.78 goals per game. This year, through 42 games, the Ducks have bottomed out completely, ranking dead last with only 1.90 goals per game. Their 82 goals scored are a full 12 behind the next lowest-scoring team, the Philadelphia Flyers.
The foundation of the club, forwards Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry and coach Bruce Boudreau, has been together for years, so is there any explanation for the total drop-off in production - and subsequent drop in daily fantasy salaries and value? Shooting percentages tell some of the story.
| Season | Team shooting % | Rank | Total goals rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | 9.83 % | 1st | 1st |
| 2014-15 | 8.44 % | 7th | 11th |
| 2015-16 | 4.80 % | 30th | 30th |
In 2013-14, the high-scoring Ducks also had the best team shooting percentage at even strength. This season, Anaheim has the worst team shooting percentage, and unsurprisingly also the fewest goals scored.
Arizona boasted last year's lowest team shooting percentage, at 5.72 per cent, and only seven clubs over the last two seasons failed to crack the seven per cent mark. Anaheim's current team shooting percentage should regress to a more positive mean over the second half, though the final figure is certain to be among the league's worst, barring a stunning improvement.
As fate would have it, Anaheim has a home date with Dallas, the NHL's most prolific offense, on Friday. Given the Stars average 3.34 goals per game, the meeting would appear to be a mismatch, if not for the presence of Anaheim's DFS (and likely real-life) MVP, goaltender John Gibson.
Since being recalled from the AHL in late November, Gibson has recorded a 9-6-2 record and four shutouts, with a league-leading 1.84 GAA. The American was selected to his first All-Star game appearance, and he's been a big part of Anaheim's defensive resilience; the Ducks allow the sixth-fewest goals per game (2.33) and the third-fewest shots (27.4).
Despite little margin for error in the form of offensive support, Gibson has been a strong DFS performer, especially at his initial bargain-basement price.
So who else besides Gibson has been playing well?
Perry has 16 goals, and has avoided the team-wide shooting percentage slump, with his 13.2 mark right around his career average of 13.4 percent. Defenseman Sami Vatanen is on pace for a career-best 41 points, and young forward Rickard Rakell has eight goals in 39 games, almost guaranteeing that he'll top his previous best of nine in 71 games.
The Ducks' other once-reliable offensive assets have been largely relegated to contrarian status for daily fantasy purposes. Getzlaf has a solid 26 points in 38 games, but only three goals and a career-low 3.7 shooting percentage. C Ryan Kesler has 17 points in 42 games. D Cam Fowler had 12 points in 34 games before suffering a knee injury in early January.
The biggest potential daily fantasy bargain on the roster appears to be rookie D Shea Theodore, who skates alongside Vatanen on the team's top power-play unit. Anaheim ranks 12th with a 19.6 per cent conversion rate on the man advantage, and Theodore scored his first career goal Wednesday.
With just the one point in eight games, Theodore hasn't been prolific, but given his near-minimum price and averages of 2.13 shots and just under one block per game, it won't take much to return value. Most defensemen who log significant power play time aren't nearly as affordable.
| Month | Games | Goals | Goals/Game |
|---|---|---|---|
| October | 10 | 10 | 1 |
| November | 15 | 41 | 2.73 |
| December | 11 | 17 | 1.55 |
| January | 6 | 14 | 2.33 |
Anaheim's had exactly one month where its average goals per game wouldn't rank in the bottom third of the league. While the team's overall shooting percentage, and thus its total goals, should increase somewhat over the season's second half, the Ducks aren't likely to resemble the offensive juggernauts of years past.
The immediate schedule doesn't do the team any favors, either, with the Kings, Wild and Capitals, who all rank in the top 10 for fewest goals allowed, all set to face Anaheim before the All-Star break.
Other than Gibson, Theodore, Perry and possibly Getzlaf and Rakell, many of the Ducks' collective wings have been clipped for DFS purposes.
