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Pros and cons of possible NFL playoff expansion

Brian Snyder / REUTERS

Commissioner Roger Goodell told a group of Jacksonville Jaguars season-ticket holders on Friday that a playoff expansion "will likely happen at some point."

The NFL expanded from 10 to 12 playoff teams in 1990 with the creation of Wildcard Weekend. The league has hinted at moving up to a 14-team playoff in recent years, but has not released any official plans for a potential playoff expansion.

As it currently stands:

  • 12 teams qualify for the playoffs
  • Winner of each division is awarded a playoff spot and home-field advantage in their first playoff game regardless of record
  • Two best teams from each conference who did not win their division are awarded wild-card spots and play their first-round game on the road
  • Two teams with the best record in each conference earn a first-round bye
If the NFL is to expand, the playoff format would most likely look like this:
  • 14 teams qualify for playoffs
  • Winner of each division is awarded a playoff spot
  • Three best teams from each conference who did not win their division are awarded wild-card spots
  • Team with the best record in each conference earns a first-round bye
The expansion would allow for more teams to make the playoffs and more playoff games altogether, but would it really benefit the league?

For the league, it's basically a no-brainer; more teams and more playoff games means more money. Simple as that.

For teams and fans, it may not be so straight forward.

Pros

Expansion of Wildcard Weekend

Wildcard Weekend is arguably the best week of the NFL season. Two playoff games on Saturday, two playoff games on Sunday to kick off the postseason. It isn't certain that adding two more games wouldn't decrease the entertainment value, but there aren't many fans that would be willing to give it a shot.

More playoff teams

Every fan wants to see their team in the postseason and with expansion, more fans would get to see what they want. The cries of "we're never going to make the playoffs" would soften and hope can be restored (unless you're a Browns fan).

Meaningful regular-season games

The expansion would spill over into the regular season. Every season there are a handful of games late in the year that are essentially playoff games; two teams competing for the same spot with similar records. Those games would definitely become more prevalent with an extra wild-card spot up for grabs.

No tanking

The NFL doesn't want its teams tanking. It has gotten ugly in the NBA and NHL in recent seasons with teams trying to lose games to secure a top draft spot. It's not done quite as often or as open in the NFL, but there's always a risk. Unlike other leagues, teams can guarantee their draft position with a bad enough record in the NFL. Encouraging more teams to be competitive at the end of the season would discourage teams from tanking come November and December.

Cons

Less quality playoff teams

There has already been an issue in recent seasons with teams making the playoffs who don't quite meet the quality of team expected in the postseason. The Houston Texans and Washington Redskins won their divisions with 9-7 records last season. The Carolina Panthers made the playoffs with a 7-8-1 record in 2014 and the Green Bay Packers slid in with an 8-7-1 season in 2013.

Making it easier to earn a playoff spot can reduce the meaning of the playoffs themselves. Wildcard Weekend is one of the most anticipated events of the NFL season; adding teams who don't deserve to be there could dilute the product. That's unlikely to stop the NFL from expanding playoffs based on the fact that Thursday Night Football has diluted their product for the past three seasons.

Short-term mistakes

In the short-term, teams will be excited at the increased probability of a postseason appearance, which could lead to some short-sighted decisions. If teams believe they can get in the playoffs, they're more likely to gamble long-term success for a few extra wins and a nationally televised game. Overpaying free agents, overplaying and adding pressure on young players, and forcing injured players into the lineup would all likely increase with a better shot at the playoffs.

Forgetting team goals

Realistically, there are less teams that are in contention to win a Super Bowl than there are playoff teams. The best way to get better is to draft and develop. Top-notch free agents rarely reach the market and when they do, they're overpaid. The goal of a team should be to win a championship, not just to get a foot in the door.

It's too late for the league to make any changes that would be implemented next season, but they have a lot to consider.

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