Matt Williamson is a former scout for the Cleveland Browns, and spent the last 10 years at ESPN as a scout and co-host of "The Football Today Podcast."
Three 6-seeds have gone on to win the Super Bowl: the Steelers in 2005, the Giants in 2007, and Green Bay in Super Bowl XLV. While it's unlikely and always a difficult road, it can happen.
This year's No. 6 seeds, Miami and Detroit, probably don't have a legitimate chance at accomplishing the feat - but which of the two has the better chance of making a deep postseason run?
Let's start by looking at the path each team has to take in order to reach the big game. The Dolphins (10-6 during the regular season with a minus-17 point differential) go to Pittsburgh this week. If they pulled off the upset in the wild-card round, they would travel to New England. If Miami pulled off that major upset too, the Dolphins would most likely travel to Kansas City - but the AFC Championship Game could be in Houston or Oakland (unlikely as that may sound).
As for the Lions (9-7 during the regular season with a minus-12 point differential), they travel to Seattle for their wild-card matchup. If they escape with a victory over the uneven Seahawks - who are 7-1 at home this year - they'd head to Dallas, where the Cowboys also lost just one game at home in 2016. If Detroit won that game, the Lions would then travel to Atlanta, Green Bay, or New York with a chance to advance to the Super Bowl.
Both scenarios appear unlikely, but it's even less likely the Lions can navigate their potential road. First off, there are just more strong teams in the NFC than the AFC, and after a five-game winning streak that started in Week 9, Detroit has lost three straight and is backing into the playoffs.
Meanwhile, Miami won nine of its last 11 games. Although the Dolphins were thoroughly beaten by the Patriots (a team they've now lost to twice this year and would have to defeat to get to the Super Bowl) in Week 17, their winning ways began at home with a thrashing of the Steelers - Jay Ajayi rushed for 204 yards on his 25 carries and the Dolphins' offensive foundation was born. Like two other AFC teams, Miami is without its starting quarterback, but Ryan Tannehill could return as early as this week.
The offense, however, isn't Miami's problem. The Dolphins allowed 66 points in their last two outings and the back seven on this side of ball has become highly problematic. Ndamukong Suh, Cameron Wake, and the Dolphins' defensive line can make up for some of those deficiencies, but that is asking a lot. Miami tied the hapless 49ers for a league-worst 4.8 yards per rush allowed. That doesn't sound like a great recipe versus Le'Veon Bell, and this problem only got worse for the Dolphins as the season continued.
Meanwhile, the Lions gave up 73 points in their two final regular-season games and might have the worst defense of the dozen playoff teams. Unlike Miami, the Lions don't have an area of strength on this side of the ball, and one of their key defenders, Darius Slay, is battling a hamstring injury.
Detroit's especially troubling pass-rush was among the NFL's worst in 2016 - only the Browns allowed more passing touchdowns than the Lions this season, and Detroit and Cleveland tied for the second-lowest number of sacks - but at least Ziggy Ansah and company get to face one of the league's bottom-feeding offensive lines in the first round of the playoffs.
The Lions are quite strong on special teams, and Matthew Stafford is clearly a superior quarterback to Matt Moore or Tannehill, but Detroit's running attack pales in comparison to Miami's: The Lions averaged just 81.9 yards per game and a dismal 3.7 yards per rush. Winning on the road in the playoffs without much of a running game is beyond what you can ask of the Lions, especially with the slate they'd face afterward in the more challenging NFC. That said, Stafford's ability to take over a game is an asset Miami just doesn't have.
It's extremely improbable the Lions or Dolphins will reach the Super Bowl - it would be a gigantic shock if either team won two games in the postseason, and maybe even surprising for either to win its opening contest - but if one 6-seed does end up in the big game, it's more likely to be Miami … barely.