Lions had to pay Stafford, but record deal could doom defense

Lions had to pay Stafford, but record deal could doom defense

9 years ago
Tim Fuller / USA TODAY Sports

Last season was arguably the most complete campaign of Matthew Stafford's career, although it wasn't as gaudy as 2011, when he threw for over 5,000 yards and 41 touchdowns.

The Detroit Lions franchise player has transformed from a gunslinger into an efficient veteran over the past six seasons, accelerated by the arrival of Jim Bob Cooter as offensive coordinator halfway through the 2015 season.

In Cooter's offense, Stafford is more Alex Smith than Brett Favre; he focuses on the short-to-mid passing game, puts his receivers in positions to dominate after the catch, and avoids the turnovers that were so prevalent from 2011-13.

As a result of changing his style, Stafford is performing up to the standard that was expected when the Lions selected him first overall in 2009, and they rewarded him Monday by making him the highest-paid player in NFL history with a $27-million annual average salary.

Related: Lions, Stafford reach record 5-year extension worth $135 million

And they really had no other choice. Stafford will likely end up earning more money than any other player in NFL history over his career because he was the last No. 1 pick to earn a big-money contract before the new CBA kicked in.

This means Stafford has always had the leverage to push the value of his contract extensions to the maximum. And after being mentioned in the MVP conversation last season before a finger issue derailed his play, the Lions had to give him a monster deal.

However, while the decision was easy, the ramifications will be more difficult to handle.

Though Stafford is a good quarterback, few would argue he's great. The 29-year-old proved he was talented early in his career, but lacks the composure or accuracy to consistently put a team on his back and lead it to victory.

And that's OK. Only a handful of quarterbacks are capable of winning with a subpar defense, and you should still hold onto a solid pivot for dear life if you find one.

The problem is that winning with a subpar defense is exactly what will be required of Stafford again in 2017. The Lions ranked dead last in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA (a ranking system that judges performance against league-average situational play) in 2016, and finished last in pass-defense DVOA, too.

Aside from cornerback Darius Slay and defensive end Ezekiel "Ziggy" Ansah (who even had a down year in 2016, producing just two sacks), the Lions have no top-level difference-makers on defense, and their depth at pass-rusher is abysmal - especially after losing 2016 sack leader Kerry Hyder for the year with a torn Achilles.

There's no reason to believe Detroit's defense will be any better in 2017 after making few significant additions to the unit this offseason. Yes, the Lions did use their first two draft picks on defensive players - linebacker Jarrad Davis and cornerback Teez Tabor - but expecting two rookies to radically improve a poor defense is beyond optimistic.

And while the Lions' offense and Stafford were impressive last season, they mounted an NFL record eight fourth-quarter comebacks - a nearly impossible feat to replicate.

Detroit is a prime candidate to regress in 2017, and while the franchise likely won't feel the effects of Stafford's deal for a few years, it will impact the team's ability to build him a playoff-caliber defense.

This first major issue will be Ansah, who needs a new deal after this season and will likely command a huge extension if he regains his 14.5-sack form from 2015. Beyond that, the Lions could struggle to add some much-needed free-agent talent next offseason.

Stafford was always going to get paid, and paid big. And the Lions, like every other team with a franchise quarterback, understand that the trade-off for having such a player is cutting back in other areas.

But when half the roster is as devoid of talent as Detroit's defense, it isn't ideal for a good-but-not-great quarterback to carry cap hits of roughly $30 million from 2019-21. The Lions surely agree, but they didn't have much of a choice.

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