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Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (+3.5, 46)
Titans leading receiver Rishard Matthews missed practice on Friday with a sore hamstring and will be a game-time decision on Sunday. Matthews leads the team with 626 receiving yards and three TD catches. He had five catches for 113 yards and a touchdown last week against the Steelers.
LINE HISTORY: The Titans opened as 4.5-point road favorites but have been bet down to as low as -3. The total moved as high as two points above the opening number of 44 and seems to be settling at 45.5.
TRENDS:
*The Titans are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games.
*The over is 10-2 in the Titans’ last 12 games against AFC South opponents.
*Indy is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games against Tennessee.
Carolina Panthers at New York Jets (+5.5, 40)
The Panthers welcome back Pro Bowl tight end Greg Olsen who’s been out since Week 2 with a broken bone in his foot. That’s the good news. The bad news is the club’s top two centers (Ryan Kalil and Tyler Larsen) are both listed as questionable to play against the Jets.
Kalil, a former Pro Bowl player, likely won’t play because of a lingering neck injury. Head coach Ron Rivera sounded more optimistic about the chances of Larsen playing.
LINE HISTORY: The books installed Carolina as a 4.5-point road fave against the Jets and the spread has moved up a point to 5.5. The total opened at 39.5 and most shops are dealing 40 or 40.5.
TRENDS:
*The Jets are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.
*The over is 4-0 in the Panthers’ last four games coming off a bye week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-10, 48.5)
The Falcons’ offense didn’t have an extraordinary game last week against the Seahawks. Seattle held them to 284 yards but the Dirty Birds were efficient in the red zone. Defending league MVP Matt Ryan has completed eight of his last 12 pass attempts for 60 yards with five TDs and no picks in the red zone over the last three games.
Star receiver Julio Jones has tortured Tampa Bay over the years. Jones has six career, 100-yard receiving games and eight career touchdown grabs against the Bucs.
LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened as 10-point home faves and that’s where we stand heading into the weekend. The total opened at 48 and it’s crept a half point up at a few locations.
TRENDS:
*The Bucs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against divisional foes.
*The over is 12-3 in the Falcons’ last 15 home games.
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-14, 44)
The Eagles became the 44th team since 1985 to win seven straight games against the spread. Only 19 of the previous 43 covered in their next game. This is also the biggest spread the Eagles have seen all season although they did cover against the Niners as 13-point chalk.
LINE HISTORY: Plenty of shops are dealing just below the two touchdown spread as we head into the weekend. The total is jumping between 43.5 and 44.5.
TRENDS:
*The Bears are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with winning records.
*The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 46.5)
The Chiefs signed 32-year-old cornerback Darrelle Revis this week in hopes of improving the league’s 28th-ranked passing defense. Only the Indianapolis Colts give up more yards per completion than the Chiefs at 12.9. Revis is expected to start opposite defensive back Marcus Peters. KC has paired Peters with a number of corners with little success this season.
Revis was a free agent for a good reason. He played poorly last year for the Jets – something the seven-time Pro Bowl chalks up to being in poor shape. Revis is playing weight of 205 during his prime years, but it’s yet to be determined if he has the speed to keep up with young receivers.
LINE HISTORY: The books opened with the Chiefs favored by 9.5-points and we’re now looking at a 10-point spread. The total opened around 45 and many shops are dealing 46.5 as we enter the weekend.
TRENDS:
*The Bills are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games.
*The over is 5-0 in the Bills’ last five games.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-16.5, 47.5)
That might seem like a lot of points to give for an NFL game, but don’t forget giving two touchdowns or more on the spread is nothing new for Tom Brady. The Pats are 12-8 ATS when favored by 14 or more points since the 2007 season – and an even better 11-5 ATS when giving 14.5 or more points. One of those ATS loses came in Week 1 of the 2008 campaign when Tom Brady’s was injured early and replaced by Matt Cassel.
Matt Moore will be starting at quarterback for the Dolphins. Miami was blown out 40-0 against Baltimore in the one game Moore started for the club this season.
LINE HISTORY: The Pats opened as 17-point chalk but have come down a half point. The total is holding steady at 47.5.
TRENDS:
*The home team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 games between these two sides.
*The over is 5-0 in the Dolphins’ last five games.
*The Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against teams with losing records.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-8, 38)
The Bengals offense gains the fewest yards per rush attempt at 3.0 and the Browns defense allows the fewest yards per attempt at 3.1. Expect to see a lot of Andy Dalton passing in this game.
Bengals beat reporter Jay Morrison provided a great stat on Twitter: If the Browns hold the Bengals to 60 or fewer yards Cincy will become the first team since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970 to go five games without gaining more than 60 yards on the ground in a contest.
LINE HISTORY: Some shops opened up with the Bengals giving 9 points but most locations are now dealing Browns +8. There hasn’t been any movement on the total as we head into the weekend.
TRENDS:
*The Browns are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games against divisional opponents.
*The Bengals are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with losing records.
*The under is 13-5 in the Bengals’ last 18 games overall.
*Cincy is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against Cleveland.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+6.5, 45.5)
The Seahawks secondary is running out of healthy bodies. Already down All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman, the unit will also be without safety Kam Chancellor and cornerback Shaquill Griffin against the 49ers.
LINE HISTORY: The books opened this spread with the Seahawks giving seven points but the line has come down a half point. The total has moved up three points from 42 to 45.
TRENDS:
*The Seahawks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games.
*The Niners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against NFC West opposition.
*Seattle is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games against the Niners.
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-4.5, 43)
The Broncos have a new quarterback under center and a new offensive coordinator calling the plays on the sidelines. The team had enough – like the rest of the viewing public – of Brock Osweiler and decided to hand the ball to Paxton Lynch.
Lynch becomes the third different starting quarterback for the Broncos this season after Trevor Siemian won the job from Lynch in training camp. Lynch is the Broncos’ first round pick from the 2016 NFL Draft.
Denver fired former OC Mike McCoy and appointed Bill Musgrave as his replacement. Musgrave was the offensive coordinator in Minnesota during the peak Adrian Peterson years but his services were not retained when Mike Zimmer took over. Musgrave bounced around and eventually landed as Oakland’s OC but was fired in January 2017 after he held the job for two years.
LINE HISTORY: The spread is bounced between 4.5 and 5.5. The total is holding steady at 43 and 43.5.
TRENDS:
*The Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.
*The Raiders are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games.
*The Broncos are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games against the Raiders.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Arizona Cardinals (+5.5, 38)
Future Pro Bowl cornerback Jalen Ramsey says he will not play on Sunday because of a hand injury but the Jags are still listing their best DB as questionable.
Jacksonville’s pass rush should be able to cover for Ramsey’s absence. The Jags have a league- high 40 sacks on the season after taking down Cleveland quarterback DeShone Kizer five times last weekend. Four of those five sacks came with just a four-man pass rush.
LINE HISTORY: The Jags opened as 4-point favorites and the line now sits at 5.5 at many locations. The total opened at 38 and there are some books now dealing 37.5.
TRENDS:
*The Jags are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
*The under is 4-0 in the Jags’ last four games.
*The under is 13-3 in Arizona’s last 16 home games.
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-2, 54)
The Saints go into their showdown with the NFC West-leading Rams without their top two cornerbacks. Rookie Marshon Lattimore (ankle) and second-year starter Ken Crawley (abdomen) have both been ruled out for Sunday’s game.
The Rams own the ninth-best passing attack with an average of 255 yards gained in the air per game.
LINE HISTORY: Just about all books opened with the Rams giving 2.5 points but the line dropped a half point in the middle part of the week. The total is hanging between 54 and 53.5.
TRENDS:
*The Saints are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.
*The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
*The under is 3-1 in the Rams’ last four games.
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14, 43.5)
How much is good quarterback play worth to the pointspread? Consider this: before this week, the Packers had been a 14-point or larger underdog just once since 1994. The Pack were 14-point underdogs against the Patriots in 2010. Coincidentally, Green Bay was missing Aaron Rodgers in that game too.
LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened with the Steelers favored by 13.5 points and then moved up to 14, although there were a few books that opened 14.5 and went down a half point. Either way, it appears to be settling on a two-touchdown spread. The total has gone up two points from 41.5 to 43.5.
TRENDS:
*Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last five games.
*Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.
