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The NFL rolls into a Week 12 Sunday, with arguably the biggest game of the day taking place out on the West Coast. Covers checks in on the action for a handful of today’s matchups, with insights from Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics in Las Vegas, and Mike Jerome, lines manager for offshore sportsbook TopBet.eu.
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams – Open: -2.5; Move: -2
Two weeks into the season, New Orleans looked as if it would be in for another disappointing year, with double-digit losses at Minnesota and at home to New England. But the Saints (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) haven’t lost on the field since then and have dropped only one game for pointspread bettors. Drew Brees and Co. rallied from a 31-16 fourth-quarter deficit last week to edge Washington 34-31 in overtime as a 9.5-point home favorite.
Los Angeles was on a surprisingly good run until last week, when its four-game SU and ATS winning streak ended. The Rams (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) couldn’t get it going at Minnesota, losing 24-7 as a 1-point underdog.
That lackluster Rams effort seems to be on the front of bettors’ minds, particularly the pros, for this 4:25 p.m. ET clash.
“Seven times more Saints money on account, and it’s even over the counter,” Bernanke said of activity at CG books, including The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip. “Sharps on the Saints, and the public is split.”
Carolina Panthers at New York Jets – Open: +4; Move: +4.5; Move: +5.5
Carolina has won and cashed three straight weeks to inject itself into the NFC playoff race. The Panthers (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) had their bye last week, after crushing Miami 45-21 laying 8 points at home in Week 10.
New York, also coming off a bye, is 1-4 SU (3-1-1 ATS) in its last five outings. The Jets (4-6 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) lost an offensive slog two weeks ago at Tampa Bay, 15-10 as a 1-point ‘dog.
“Carolina got good news regarding Greg Olsen, who has been upgraded to probable,” Jerome said, noting the tight end should be back from a foot injury. “Olsen has been Cam Newton's most reliable receiver, so I can see why sharps like the Panthers in this spot. This will be one of the three biggest decisions for the shop, likely after Seattle and Philly.”
Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots – Open: -17; Move: -16.5
New England looks very much like a team intent on defending its Super Bowl title. The Patriots (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) have won six in a row (5-1 ATS), traveling to Mexico City as a 7-point chalk last week and rolling to a 33-7 victory over Oakland.
Miami has dumped four in a row (0-3-1 ATS) and won’t have quarterback Jay Cutler (concussion) for this 1 p.m. ET start. The Dolphins (4-6 SU, 3-5-2 ATS) fell to Tampa Bay 30-20 as a 1-point home ‘dog in Week 11.
“Sharps are on the Pats,” Bernanke said. “Ten times more New England money on account, and it’s even over the counter so far.”
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers – Open: -13.5; Move: -14
Before the season, this game was expected to be a Sunday night showdown between teams rounding into playoff form. Pittsburgh is the only team in that mold now, riding a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS) into tonight’s 8:30 p.m. ET kickoff. The Steelers (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) come in with a little extra rest, having won the Week 11 Thursday nighter 40-17 over Tennessee as a 7-point home fave.
Green Bay obviously doesn’t have superstar quarterback Aaron Rodgers and has lost four of its last five SU and ATS because of that fact. The Packers (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) went off as 2.5-point home ‘dogs against Baltimore last week and laid a goose egg, losing 23-0.
Through Saturday night, pros weren’t too interested in this contest.
“No sharp action, and four times more Steelers money over the counter. The public is on the Steelers,” Bernanke said. “I don’t see any reason why anybody is gonna take the Packers.”
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: -11; Move: -13.5
Philadelphia is all alone atop not just the NFC, but the entire NFL, both SU and ATS. The Eagles (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) had a sluggish first half at Dallas last Sunday night, trailing 9-7 at halftime, but blew away the Cowboys in the second half for a 37-9 victory laying 6 points.
Chicago (3-7 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) might not seem a worthy foe today, but has been competitive all season long, with five of its seven losses coming in one-score games. Last week, the Bears were up 10-0 on Detroit and made a game of it all the way, losing 27-24 to push as a 3-point home pup.
“People just can’t bet the Eagles fast enough. All I hear from people is, ‘I’m betting the Eagles this week, I’ve got to get it before it gets to 14,’” Bernanke said, while noting the line went straight from 11 to 13.5 on Monday morning, and it’s been all public play on the Eagles. “Ten times more Philly money over the counter. The public is on Philly. They just feel like they’re gonna name their score.”
Game time is 1 p.m. Eastern.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals – Open: -9; Move: -8.5; Move: -8
Cleveland is the last team in the NFL without a SU win this season. In Week 11, the Browns (0-10 SU, 2-8 ATS) fell to Jacksonville 19-7 as a 7.5-point pup.
Cincinnati (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS) ended a 1-3 SU and ATS skid last week by dropping Denver 20-17 as a 2.5-point road ‘dog.
“Sharp bettors are bold, and yet don’t factor in records that much when doing their analysis,” Jerome said. “Such was the case this past Monday afternoon, when a sharp player bet Cleveland +9 in the intrastate clash with Cincy. After that bet, we moved Cincinnati to the current number of -8. The Bengals also have a plethora of defensive injuries.”
Still, after the move to 8, Jerome said the Bengals were drawing the large majority of pointspread tickets and money for this 1 p.m. ET start.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts – Open: +3; Move: +3.5
Tennessee is in the playoff hunt and looking to keep pace with first-place Jacksonville in the AFC South. The Titans (6-4 SU, 3-6-1 ATS) had a four-game SU win streak heading into Pittsburgh for the Week 11 Thursday nighter, but got drilled 40-17 catching 7 points.
Indianapolis (3-7 SU, 6-4 ATS), without Andrew Luck all season, will at least continue to have Jacoby Brissett under center, as he’s been cleared from concussion protocol for this 1 p.m. ET matchup. The Colts had a bye last week, after playing the Steelers much tougher than Tennessee did in a 20-17 Week 10 loss getting 10.5 points at home.
Jerome said sharp action early in the week took this number from Titans -3 to -3.5, and that a large majority of wagers and money were backing Tennessee.
“While Brissett has been upgraded, Indy has a lot of defensive injuries to be concerned about,” Jerome said. “You have to figure that the Colts will have a short leash with Brissett if he shows signs of the concussion issue, so Scott Tolzien is a big dropoff. That could be another reason sharps are fading the Colts.”
