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Can the team with the NFL’s best record keep it going on a long road trip for the Week 13 Sunday night game? Covers checks in on the action for that key NFC clash and a few other matchups, with insights from Scott Shelton, sportsbook supervisor for The Mirage on the Las Vegas Strip; Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics in Las Vegas; and Mike Jerome, lines manager for offshore sportsbook TopBet.eu.
Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks – Open: +4.5; Move: +5; Move: +5.5; Move: +6; Move: +5.5; Move: +5
Philadelphia is certainly the best team in the NFC and perhaps the class of the league at this point. The Eagles (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS) have won nine in a row on the field and eight straight against the oddsmakers, including last week’s 31-3 rout of Chicago as a 14-point home favorite.
Seattle (7-4 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) has alternated SU wins and losses over its last five games (1-3-1 ATS). In Week 12, the Seahawks beat San Francisco 24-13 as a 7-point road chalk.
“The biggest game of the day for us will be the Eagles-Seahawks. It’s overwhelming Eagles money,” Shelton said of activity at The Mirage and other MGM Resorts books. “Now we’re back to 5, we got a little sharp money there on Seattle. All public on the Eagles, some sharp play on the Seahawks.”
TopBet.eu opened the Eagles -3.5 and also got all the way to 6 by Wednesday, where it stayed until early Saturday, when the number ticked down to 5.5. Jerome said sharp play on the Eagles early in the week caused most of the upward line movement, and a heavy majority of tickets and money are on Philly for this 8:30 p.m. ET meeting.
“Philadelphia certainly looks like the class of the NFC, and the Eagles are a lot healthier than Seattle this week,” Jerome said, alluding to the Seahawks rash of injuries, including stud defensive backs Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints – Open: -4; Move: -4.5; Move: -5
Two teams that finished under .500 last year do battle for the NFC South lead in this 4:25 p.m. ET clash. New Orleans peeled off an eight-game win streak, cashing in the first seven, before finally cooling off last week. The Saints (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) lost to the Los Angeles Rams 26-20 catching 2.5 points on the road.
Carolina hasn’t always looked pretty, but has won and cashed the past three games. In Week 12, the Panthers (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) held off the New York Jets 35-27 laying 5.5 points on the road.
“Interestingly enough, bettors are still backing New Orleans and not believing in Carolina,” Bernanke said, noting sharp action strongly favored the Saints and the public was also coming in heavier on New Orleans.
Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons – Open: -3; Move: -2.5
Minnesota has to be the biggest surprise of the season, if for no other reason than its success is coming behind third-string quarterback Case Keenum. The Vikings (9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS) have won seven in a row SU and six straight ATS, including a 30-23 Thanksgiving Day victory at Detroit as a 2.5-point fave.
Defending NFC champion Atlanta is looking up at Carolina and New Orleans in the NFC South, so it needs to win this 1 p.m. ET contest to keep pace. The Falcons (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS) have won and cashed three straight, dropping Tampa Bay 34-20 last week giving 10.5 points at home.
“The Vikings just keep chugging along, and the Falcons have hit their stride,” Bernanke said, noting that through much of the week, sharp play favored Atlanta by a 3/1 ratio, while public action was split. However, the line ticked down to 2.5 Saturday night on Vikings action.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers – Open: +2; Move: +1; Move: Pick; Move: -1; Move: -2; Move: -2.5
This 1 p.m. ET kickoff is hardly a marquee matchup, but the fence-jumping line movement is significant. Green Bay, minus Aaron Rodgers (collarbone), has lost four of its last five games. But the Packers (5-6 SU and ATS) gave Pittsburgh all it could handle last week before succumbing 31-28 as a hefty 14-point road underdog.
Tampa Bay gets Jameis Winston (shoulder) back today, though it won two of the three games Winston missed. The loss came last week, as the Buccaneers (4-7 SU, 3-7-1 ATS) fell at Atlanta 34-20 as a 10.5-point pup.
“While Tampa Bay got good news with Winston being upgraded to probable, the Bucs have a slew of players injured, especially on defense,” Jerome said. “The Packers, on the other hand, are probably as healthy as they have been, especially on the offensive line.”
Jerome said sharp action was the impetus for jumping from Packers +2 to -1 on Thursday, and the line hit Green Bay -2.5 by midday Friday.
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears – Open: -4.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -3
It’s another non-marquee matchup, except that San Francisco announced Tuesday that the Jimmy Garoppolo era begins in this 1 p.m. ET kickoff. The 49ers are a dismal 1-10 SU (5-6 ATS), following up their lone win of the year – at home over the New York Giants – with a bye week before losing to Seattle 24-13 getting 7 points at home in Week 12.
Chicago (3-8 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) is on a four-game losing streak (0-3-1 ATS). The Bears had no answer for red-hot Philadelphia last week, tumbling 31-3 as a 14-point road pup.
“Call this line move the Jimmy Garoppolo effect,” Jerome said. “Shortly after it was announced that Garoppolo would be the 49ers’ starter vs. Chicago, the Bears went from -4.5 to -3.5. On Thursday, we moved Chicago from -3.5 to -3.”
