Just how strange is the 2017-18 NFL season?
It was considered an upset when the Atlanta Falcons - a team that came within a few plays of winning the Super Bowl last year - defeated the Los Angeles Rams - an organization deprived of the playoffs since 2004 - in the first playoff game in Los Angeles in decades.
That said, the game was an even matchup. The difference ultimately came down to two early turnovers by Rams kick-returners Blake Countess and Pharoh Cooper. It’s a hefty challenge for a young and inexperienced team to come back from a 13-0 deficit in a playoff game.
Early turnovers can shock a team, alter their confidence, and cause an uneasy feeling the rest of the game. It’s not a surprise that a team not accustomed to the postseason, playing against the returning NFC champions, would struggle with those types of early negative plays.
Falcons rely on balance
Under pressure all season after replacing Kyle Shanahan, Steve Sarkisian passed his first huge test as the Falcons offensive coordinator. In playoff games, it’s important for a play designer and caller to get the ball to his best players as much as possible. Matt Ryan didn’t have a monster game, only throwing for 218 yards, but fed his best weapons.
Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu combined for 13 catches and 169 yards. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman together ran for over 100 yards on the ground. It wasn’t a game where the offense “went off” and racked up monster numbers, but it was an efficient day for the Sarkisian unit. It did its job, protected the football, and executed when it mattered. Once they caught the early 13-0 lead, steady offensive football did the trick.
The Atlanta defense is much improved since last year. In his third year on the job, Dan Quinn is continuing to influence the Falcons' roster. Remember, Quinn came to Atlanta from Seattle. When he left the Seahawks, their defense was young, fast, athletic, sound, and had playmakers that fit his scheme at all three levels.
Since Quinn showed up in Atlanta, he and Tom Dimitroff have continued to sign and draft players who fit Quinn’s scheme. The defense wasn’t a strength last year during the Super Bowl run, but it was young, fast, and would compete for four quarters. The Falcons' defense has caught up with its offense, a unit that has taken a step back.
The defensive improvement was evident Sunday. The Rams moved the ball well but couldn’t finish drives. Todd Gurley averaged seven yards per carry, and Jared Goff made plenty of completions for a first-time playoff starter. But the Falcons' D made the Rams earn it, and L.A. couldn’t execute at key moments.
Giving up yards is one thing, but keeping teams out of the end zone is the most important stat for a defense. This is what the Quinn Cover 3 scheme is all about: keep the ball in front of you, tackle, run, create turnovers, and make the offense play mistake-free football for 15 plays. The Falcons bent plenty on Saturday, but didn’t break.
Atlanta could win this Saturday with the same game plan. If they play solid on offense and Ryan can get the ball to his myriad of weapons while staying away from turnovers, Atlanta’s defense should be enough to slow Nick Foles' offense. Foles must stay away from turnovers if the Eagles want to have a chance. With this in mind, it makes sense that Atlanta is actually favored to win Saturday.
Payton twice lucky as Saints escape
Sean Payton has been the New Orleans Saints head coach since 2006; in that time, he has rarely had a productive defense. This year, he does - but he didn’t trust it Sunday.
The Saints have won the majority of their games during the Drew Brees/Payton era by throwing the football. This season, Brees finally has a running game and solid defense to rely on.
Maybe Payton isn’t as confident in his defense as the regular-season statistics prove he should be, or it's possible he wanted to pull a Bill Belichick-esque move and unleash his quarterback, but his fourth-down gamble should have lost the Saints the game. Punting the ball from midfield and pinning the Panthers inside their own 10-yard line was the right play.
With this Saints defense, I’d take the chance on forcing Cam Newton to go 90 yards for a touchdown with under two minutes and no timeouts. Newton does some great things as a quarterback, but throwing the ball in obvious passing situations isn’t necessarily his strength.
Payton went for it, and Brees was met by the perfect defensive coverage for the play that was called. Brees looked left to a double slant concept. You would think that, on fourth-and-two, the Panthers would be playing man coverage. They were, except defensive back Kurt Coleman, who was covering the Saints slot receiver, passed off the wideout to his inside linebacker and dropped directly into the lane of Brees’ outside slant.
Brees almost threw the ball directly to Coleman, but quickly realized he needed a better option to convert. It was fourth down, so he tried to buy time, but couldn’t see anyone with separation downfield. He finally tossed it up for grabs and the ball was intercepted by 14-year safety Mike Adams. The entire Panthers roster knew immediately he should have batted the ball to the turf.
The play was not reviewed, but in my opinion, the Panthers should have done whatever they could to get the officials to take a second look. I would imagine the interception would have been overturned if the same ruling for a receiver catch was applied.
Adams held possession for a couple steps, but the ball ultimately fell out of his hands and out of bounds as he fell to the turf. Considering this, an extra look at that moment in the game would have benefitted Carolina.
If it was ruled incomplete, Newton and his offense would have started 17 yards closer to victory. We will never know if the Panthers could've found the end zone with that field position, but, it's evident Payton made a mistake and got lucky on the same play twice.
I know it’s not in his DNA, nor has he been used to doing that in his tenure with the Saints, but I imagine his mentor Bill Parcels would have punted in that situation.
When New Orleans travels to Minnesota for what I believe to be the best game to watch this weekend, expect to see a lot of 50-50 balls thrown to the Saints’ outside receivers. There will be plenty of back shoulder throws, and multiple plays could result in defensive or offensive pass interference.
Xavier Rhodes' matchup with Michael Thomas will be a fun battle to watch all afternoon. Brees is going to have to fit balls into some tight windows, and there will be a lot of hand-to-hand combat to see who comes down with the football, opening the door for possible controversy.
For fans of both teams, this game will have an emotionally charged aspect because of the legendary "Bountygate" episode during the 2010 NFC championship game. But for the players, only a handful are still on both rosters. I assume Brees and Vikings defensive end Brian Robison will have plenty of questions thrown their way this week regarding a game that occurred eight years ago.
Both the Saints and Vikings have totally different teams now, but this Sunday’s game could be just as memorable.
Sage Rosenfels is a former 12-year NFL quarterback who writes, does radio, and podcasts about the NFL and college football. Find him on Twitter @SageRosenfels18.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)
