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We’re just a few days into Super Bowl betting, but some trends are already starting to unfold. Covers checks in on the action and line movement for the big game on Feb. 4, with insights from Tony Miller, sportsbook director at the Golden Nugget in downtown Las Vegas, and with the lines manager for offshore sportsbook GTBets.eu.
Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots – Open: -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -5
New England is certainly in a familiar spot, once again playing in the final game of the year, but it took a big comeback to get there. The Patriots (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) needed most of Sunday’s AFC championship game to climb out of a 14-3 hole against Jacksonville, ultimately escaping with a 24-20 home victory as a 7.5-point home chalk.
The Pats also lost tight end Rob Gronkowski during the game, and he’s currently in concussion protocol.
Philadelphia (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) had struggled a lot in the scoring department since Nick Foles stepped in for the injured Carson Wentz at quarterback. But those struggles went away in Sunday’s NFC title tilt, with the Eagles running away from Minnesota 38-7 as a 3-point home underdog.
With Gronkowski’s status uncertain and Philly coming off an impressive performance, betting is lopsided at Miller’s shop on Fremont Street.
“Right away, in the first minute we had the game up, I took a $10,000 moneyline bet on the Eagles,” Miller said, noting the moneyline opened Patriots -250/Eagles +200. “So we dropped the moneyline to -240/+190 and the pointspread from 6 to 5.5. We didn’t really get any money at +6, but we got a lot at +5.5 the last few days. Then we went to 5, and they’re still taking +5.”
Miller said the moneyline is now at New England -200/Philadelphia +170, and bettors continue to hit the Eagles.
“All the sentimental bets are on the Eagles, on the pointspread and moneyline. People are just kind of burned out on the Patriots,” Miller said. “The sharp money is lurking, waiting to see how low this drops. It’ll go back up next week, when the bulk of the money starts to show up.”
And of course, providing Gronk is cleared, that will take the line north as well.
Meanwhile, at GTBets.eu, the Patriots opened -5.5 and dipped to 5. (For reviews of online sportsbooks visit OddsShark.com)
“So far, 60 percent of side bets are on New England, which is less than expected and also why the line has dropped to 5,” GTBets' lines manager said. “The total has barely budged, going from 47.5 to 48, and 70 percent of the action is on the over at this point. With the reasonable amount of action on the Eagles, I would expect the line to drop to 4.5, and the total to increase possibly another point to 49.”
The Golden Nugget was also at 48 on the total and a little heavy to the under, but that’s of little concern to Miller at this point.
“They’ll eventually pound the over,” he said. “So I’m not worried about that at all.”
