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We’re one day away from the big game in Minneapolis, and sportsbooks throughout Nevada and offshore are trying to firm up their positions. Covers checks in on the Super Bowl action and line movement, with insights from Tony Nevill, sportsbook director at Treasure Island on the Vegas Strip, and Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook BetDSI.eu.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots – Open: -5; Move: -4.5; Move: -4; Move: -4.5
Defending Super Bowl champion New England looks to make it two titles in a row and six in the Tom Brady era when this spectacle kicks off at 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday. The Patriots (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) are 28-9 ATS over the past two seasons, though they failed to cover in the AFC title game, rallying for a 24-20 victory over Jacksonville as a 7.5-point home favorite two weeks ago.
Philadelphia, like New England a No. 1 seed, got to this position thanks to a solid defense and a breakout second year from quarterback Carson Wentz. But Wentz hasn’t been around since Week 14, when he suffered a torn ACL. The Eagles (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) put together their best overall performance since then in the NFC championship game, boatracing Minnesota 38-7 as a 3-point home underdog on Jan. 21.
Treasure Island saw this line dip 1.5 points from its opener, but wasn’t inclined to keep it that way for long.
“It got as low as 4, just for a split second,” Nevill said. “I moved it, took a small bet at 4 and said, ‘I’m not gonna go down that path, having the game land on 4 and having to refund on 4.’ I’m not gonna go to 4 and risk the push.”
So he went back to Patriots -4.5 (-110), then adjusted the price to even money on New England, which seems to be the sweet spot.
“I think that’s gonna be it for us,” Nevill said. “Patriots -4.5 at even money, that’s where we’ve been attracting the most two-way action on the game. I got a call at home late last night, there was a guy looking to put a considerable amount of cash on Eagles +4.5 (-120), and we got several bets this morning on the Patriots -4.5 (even). I think we’ve got a good selling point. If you like the Patriots, this is a good place to go to.”
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BetDSI opened New England -6 back on Jan. 21 and had a low-water mark of -4.5. But the pointspread recently rose just a tick.
“We've taken some Patriots money over the last 24 hours, which has pushed this number back to -5,” Cooley said. “The guess is that bettors are reacting to the medical clearance of Robert Gronkowski. Still, I don't think we're going to sit on this once-dead number for long. The projections still forecast a downward movement to -4. The majority of moneyline tickets are still on Philadelphia, and the total is holding as steady as ever (at 48). I still contend the eventual sharp play will be on the under.”
BetDSI opened the moneyline at Patriots -230/Eagles +190, and like pretty much every other shop got a lot of hits on the underdog. The current moneyline is -200/+170.
Treasure Island also took plenty of Eagles moneyline cash, opening Patriots -225/Eagles +185 and bottoming out at -175/+145. But Nevill has his shop in a better spot now and is currently at -185/+155.
“We’re a little heavier on the Patriots moneyline. I’ve been floating between -175, -180 and -185. We got what we needed, because originally we were heavy on the Eagles,” Nevill said, while noting the pointspread/moneyline relationship has made things interesting for Philly backers. “When you make them lay 120 on +4.5, it makes them reconsider and think about taking the +155 on the moneyline instead, without the points. We’re creating a reason for bettors to think just a little bit.”
Treasure Island opened the total at 47.5 and was at 48.5 Saturday morning.
“We’re on the high side on the over, but not much,” he said. “Right now, we need the Patriots and under. That would be our best scenario. But there’s a lot of time until kickoff. That could change tomorrow to where we might need Eagles and the under.”
