Test vs. tape: The curious case of Orlando Brown Jr.
If you asked any prospect evaluator to list their top-five NFL-bound offensive linemen before the combine in March, you certainly would have heard the name Orlando Brown Jr.
The son of longtime NFL lineman Orlando Brown Sr., who went by "Zeus" due to his incredible size, made a name for himself in college at Oklahoma as Baker Mayfield's blindside protector. With even better size than his father, Brown Jr. used his 6-foot-8, 360-pound frame to bully defenders in a way that is uncommon for players his age.
However, the narrative changed in those early days of March after he put up one of the worst sets of athletic testing at the combine in Indianapolis. He didn't just have the worst combine among top-rated prospects, or offensive linemen, or even just players in the 2018 group - he had an all-time stinker.
| Event | Result | OL Rank |
|---|---|---|
| 40-yd Dash | 5.85 sec | Last |
| Bench Press | 14 reps* | Last |
| Vert. Jump | 19.5 inches | Last |
| Broad Jump | 82 inches | Last |
| 3-Cone Drill | 7.87 sec | 24th (out of 34) |
| 20-Yd Shuttle | 5.38 sec | Last |
Context on Orlando Brown's Combine, per @pfref's combine database:
— Rodger Sherman (@rodger_sherman) March 2, 2018
19.5" vertical (would be worst of any player ever drafted)
82" broad jump (also would be worst ever drafted)
5.85 40 (2nd-worst, the other was a 7th-rounder in 2001)
14 bench reps (tied for 4th-worst amongst OLs)
Brown did better at his Pro Day two weeks later: 18 bench-press reps, 5.63-second 40-yard dash time, 25.5-inch vertical jump, and an 89-inch broad jump. But that doesn't really clear up the issue. If he was actually capable of putting up those numbers all along, why didn't he test better at the combine?
Half the battle of the annual combine is showing preparation. Essentially, it is a series of well-mapped-out drills that test athletic ability, not necessarily football skills - especially for offensive linemen. Everyone knows what they will be tested on ahead of time and are given the months following the end of the season to get ready. It is a test to see who is willing to put in the hours to impress potential future employers.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)
Even the best prospects, who don't really need to prove they are athletic enough to play football, use the stage to further show they are worthy of a top pick.
Related: Putting Saquon Barkley's combine numbers in perspective
Prior to the combine, Brown looked like he would fit that description - someone who just needed to not embarrass himself to keep his top-pick status. Last season, he gave up only one sack while protecting Mayfield as well as only one bull-rush pressure, according to Pro Football Focus.
You don't need to watch Brown's tape for long to realize he doesn't just have the skills to play in the NFL, but he's talented enough to become a truly dominant force.
Jacksonville Jaguars meeting with Oklahoma T Orlando Brown today. Could he be this years Cam Robinson? pic.twitter.com/tXbsvE6i3X
— Another Jags Podcast (@AnotherJagsPod) April 3, 2018
It is tough to know how teams will react to Brown's combine. In the past, some teams have moved players way up their draft boards because of their superb testing (Darrius Heyward-Bey going seventh overall to Raiders in 2009) while others have ignored bad combines for the sake of good tape (Andre Smith being taken sixth overall by Bengals in 2009).
It wouldn't be hyperbolic to call Brown's tape the best of any offensive linemen in this year's draft, nor would be calling his combine the worst of any prospect in this crop. The old school scouts of the league could claim his combine shouldn't be matter, while others may say he's not tough enough to put the work in.
Brown has opened himself up to a lot of criticism with a few shaky days in Indianapolis and, realistically, he won't know how much it affected his draft stock until his name is called in Arlington.