Ranking the 2018 Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates

Offense I Defense

The Offensive Rookie of the Year has proven to be one of the more difficult awards to predict. In the past two seasons, the trophy has been presented to a fourth-rounder and a third-round pick.

Now that the draft has placed this year's crop of rookies in their NFL homes, let's take a look at the likely candidates for the title in the upcoming season.

Sleeper: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Packers

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Aaron Rodgers' favorite target is gone. The Packers released Jordy Nelson in March and someone will have to replace his production.

The Packers replenished their receiver depth chart by drafting three wideouts and while fourth-round pick J'Mon Moore and sixth-rounder Equanimeous St. Brown could also emerge as Rodgers' favorite new toy, we're picking the fifth-round selection.

Valdes-Scantling is a raw talent, but at 6-foot-4, he'll represent one of the bigger targets Rodgers has had to play with. A quarter of his receptions in college went 25-plus yards, according to NFL.com's Lance Zierlein. If he proves capable of winning deep early enough, he could emerge as the JuJu Smith-Schuster to Davante Adams' Antonio Brown.

10. Calvin Ridley, WR, Falcons

Only two receivers have won the award in the last 10 years, but Ridley has the physical tools to join the company of Odell Beckham Jr. and Percy Harvin.

Dominant in college, Ridley was long ago tabbed as a potential game-breaking talent in the pro ranks. But in the Falcons' offense, Julio Jones is the straw that stirs the drink. Ridley will begin as merely a complementary piece.

9. Rashaad Penny, RB, Seahawks

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Penny was the second running back taken in this year's draft, giving every indication that he will be thrust right into the starting role.

Working against him is the team he was selected by. Behind a leaky offensive line, the Seahawks finished 23rd in rushing in 2017. In the three seasons since Marshawn Lynch's departure, Seattle has failed to produce a 1,000-yard rusher.

While Penny should provide some stability at the position, the team failed to address its O-line in the draft or free agency.

8. D.J. Moore, WR, Panthers

The Panthers made Moore the first receiver off the board after he excelled at the combine. As Cam Newton's newest weapon, he'll be afforded every chance to shine on a shallow receiving corps.

He's currently being given 33-1 odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, but it's hard to see Moore winning the award if higher-profile prospects Kelvin Benjamin and Christian McCaffrey failed to do so before him.

7. Ronald Jones II, RB, Buccaneers

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The home-run threat fell into a position in which he will likely be the starting running back from Day 1. The Buccaneers own a ton of firepower offensively, but their running game let them down in 2017, finishing 27th in the league.

Jones has all the explosion necessary to make an immediate impact, but there's only one football to go around and Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Cameron Brate, O.J. Howard, and Chris Godwin will also be calling for theirs, limiting Jones' touches.

6. Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens

There are a number of ways Jackson could win this award. First, he could supplant Joe Flacco as the starter and lead the Ravens back to the playoffs for the first time since 2014.

He could also do it as an offensive weapon. John Harbaugh and his coaching staff are "in the lab" devising ways in which the former Heisman Trophy winner can help the team immediately. If the Frankenstein they develop turns into a monster, it could destroy the whole league.

5. Josh Allen, QB, Bills

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With only AJ McCarron ahead of him on the depth chart, playing time might not be a question for Allen. However, he's viewed as a raw prospect drafted on account of his big arm.

A lot would be required of the Wyoming product for him to win Rookie of the Year. The Bills just ended the longest playoff drought in major professional sports last year. If he returns Buffalo to the postseason with a significantly reduced roster, that'll do the trick.

4. Josh Rosen, QB, Cardinals

By position alone, quarterbacks are far more likely to win rookie of the year. The award has gone to a QB seven times since 2004.

Rosen is considered the most pro-ready quarterback among this year's crop of passers, but he's in a position where he's not expected to start right away. The Cardinals paid a rich contract to Sam Bradford to install him as the 2018 starter.

If Bradford falters or succumbs to injury, as he has often in his career, Rosen will be surrounded by enough talent to allow him to thrive in the NFL.

3. Derrius Guice, RB, Redskins

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A first-round talent, Guice was passed over by almost every team before he landed with the Redskins in the second round.

If the power back can channel that slight and stay healthy, he'll likely be everything the Redskins have been wanting and more in a running back, putting to end a turnstile at the position.

Winning the award also hinges on Guice helping Washington improve from a 7-9 outfit to a playoff contender.

2. Baker Mayfield, QB, Browns

Baker slots into the worst situation in the NFL, but as he said before the draft, if anyone's going to turn the Browns around, it's him.

Mayfield first has to win playing time from incumbent starter Tyrod Taylor. If he manages to do so, and helps a franchise enjoy more success than it has in the past two seasons (1-31), he'll be hailed as both a savior and a front-runner for Offensive Rookie of the Year.

1. Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants

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Running backs are enjoying a sort of renaissance in the NFL and it's come on the backs of the play of the rookies. Two of the last three Offensive Rookie of the Year award winners were running backs, and Ezekiel Elliott arguably should have won the trophy in 2016.

Barkley enters the league celebrated as the most complete back in years. He's expected to make an immediate difference for a running game that hasn't averaged 100 yards per game since 2015.

Though the Giants have also added tackle Nate Solder through free agency and drafted guard Will Hernandez, the offensive line remains an area of concern. If the line holds up and New York makes a marked improvement from their 3-13 record of a year ago, Barkley's a shoo-in for the prize.