Analyzing 5 intriguing trends at the quarter mark of the season

The NFL, for better or worse, has developed into an offensive game.

Due to the increased scoring production, a number of fascinating trends have emerged early on in the 2018 campaign. Luckily for opposing defenses, not all of these can be sustained across 17 weeks.

Here are five trends to either buy or sell at the quarter mark of the season:

QB completion percentage at an all-time high

NFL quarterbacks are completing passes at a rate we've simply never seen before. The league is lucky enough to feature a number of talented signal-callers, but new-school offensive schemes are aiding their success as well. Quick routes and screens from the shotgun are routine plays in modern football, as coaches want to get the ball in the hands of their top playmakers.

Through four weeks of the 2018 campaign, quarterbacks are completing a staggering 69.5 percent of passes league-wide. To put it into perspective, this number rose from 63.7 percent in 2017, and 63.3 in 2016. A nearly six percent jump is quite substantial. Five quarterbacks that have started at least three games currently possess a completion percentage of 70 percent or higher. At the quarter mark, there had only been four total pivots who surpassed that clip over the past three seasons combined.

Verdict: Expect this trend to continue. Quarterbacks have become dangerously accurate and offensive coaches are incredibly creative. Three-step drops and short passes are the new NFL.

Incredible WR production

With the rise in quarterback play and number of passes attempted, receivers are producing eye-popping stats in 2018. After four weeks, a whopping 37 receivers are on pace for 1,000-yard campaigns, and nine for over 1,500 yards. Atlanta Falcons star wideout Julio Jones is on pace for over 2,000 yards, which would break Calvin Johnson's 2012 record.

The early season production is quite a jump from 2017. 15 receivers surpassed the 1,000-yard mark last year and only Antonio Brown accumulated over 1,500. There were 25 1,000-yard pass-catchers in 2016, and 26 in 2015. Only five players surpassed 1,500 yards over the last three seasons combined.

Verdict: 37 1,000-yard receivers seems a bit high, so we're selling this trend. There's a ton of talent at the position, but expect the number of players surpassing this milestone to drop slightly as opposing defenses develop more efficient strategies.

RBs featured in the passing game more than ever

In a trend that's perhaps related to the league-wide completion percentage increase, running backs are catching passes at a historic rate. Gone are the days of the two-down bruising ball-carrier - teams expect their rushers to play a vital role in the passing game. The NFL's top players at the position - Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara, Le'Veon Bell (when playing), and David Johnson - are legitimate pass-catching threats out of the backfield and in the slot.

Through four games, running backs have accumulated 977 targets, a sharp rise from 843 in 2017, and 786 in 2016. Not coincidentally, the number of receptions have increased as well. Running backs have caught 721 passes this year, 26 more than last season and 103 more than 2016, from Weeks 1-4. As players at the position have developed into versatile weapons, their involvement in the passing game has become a key component of their team's offensive scheme.

Verdict: This is an easy buy. The rate at which running backs are targeted and the number of receptions might actually increase as the 2018 season moves forward. There are just too many talented rushers that create mismatches in the passing game.

Use of multiple QBs

This is a fun trend that has emerged from the NFL's brightest offensive minds. Teams are utilizing two quarterbacks on game days - both separately and even on the field at the same time.

The Chicago Bears used this strategy on an incredible touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this past week, fooling the defense in more ways than one. The Baltimore Ravens are giving rookie Lamar Jackson snaps under center as a change-of-pace weapon to Joe Flacco. We've even seen the New Orleans Saints take 11-time Pro-Bowler Drew Brees off the field in favor of versatile quarterback Taysom Hill in order to create ideal matchups. Hill even threw a pass in the red zone versus the New York Giants.

Verdict: Although quarterback is the NFL's most important position, expect this trend to continue in the seasons to come. Offensive coaches are always looking for new ways to create a competitive advantage and get the ball in the hands of their playmakers. Some of these dynamic weapons play under center.

Flags, flags, and more flags!

In one of the NFL's top storylines, penalties are being called at an unprecedented, and perhaps alarming rate. Through Week 4, 1,043 total flags have been thrown, with 895 penalties accepted. That number is up from 886 flags in 2017, and an average of over three more accepted penalties per game.

Roughing the passer penalties have provided the largest controversy this year. After four games, there have been 38 such calls, a sharp rise from the 21 called in 2017, and 22 in 2016 at the quarter mark. Interestingly enough, the league's new 'lowering the helmet' rule, which sparked a great deal of discussion during the preseason, has only been called on three occasions thus far in 2018.

Verdict: It isn't time to panic just yet. With a number of rule updates and alterations, referees will adjust as the season plays out. There will almost certainly be more controversy pertaining to the roughing the passer penalty, but don't expect it to come as often as the early portion of 2018.

(Player stats courtesy: NFL Stats)
(Target stats courtesy: Pro Football Focus)
(Flag stats courtesy: NFL Penalty Tracker)