Week 3 NFL Betting Diary: The backdoor was wide open
Each week, theScore's betting writer, Alex Kolodziej, will share a running diary of his Sunday experiences. Here's his third edition (all times PT):
Sunday, Sept. 23
6:00 a.m.: Who knew two weeks could feel like an eternity? Well, back-to-back losing weekends in college football felt like a six-year run of watching teenagers ruin my bankroll because they don't know how to play a late game on the West Coast. I almost forgot what it felt like to wake up on a Sunday energized. Today I am, and I'm on the prowl for winners. Losses will not be tolerated in Week 3 of the NFL.
9:12 a.m.: I've had three plays - 49ers +6.5, Giants-Texans over 42, and Cardinals +5.5 - locked in for a couple days now. It looks like I got a decent number on the first two, while the Cardinals shot back up to +6 in some places. After Saturday's big day, I'm adding two more: Bengals-Panthers under 44.5 (I wanted to see if this number would jump from 43.5; it did) and the Chargers +7. How in the world are the Chargers getting a touchdown?
Seeing as I'm betting against Patrick Mahomes (and against the Rams' offense, and on the Cardinals), I can already feel months being taken off my life. If I live to 37, it'll be a miracle. But hey, I bet against Alabama on Saturday and lived to tell the tale. This is a breeze. Anyway, here's the full card:
- 49ers +6.5
- Giants/Texans over 42
- Bengals/Panthers under 44.5
- Cardinals +5.5
- Chargers +7
10:11 a.m.: I dare you to find someone with worse luck in goal-to-go situations than yours truly. Want to know the last time I had a touchdown scored on first-and-goal inside the 5-yard line? 2009. This time, the Texans try to run outside and get stuffed on second down, and then incomplete a pass on third. 3-0 Texans early. I loved this over so much, yet I couldn't even provide a reason in my outlook this weekend. Pure gut feeling.
10:16 a.m.: Oh, but the Bengals can score on first-and-goal? Got it. 7-0 Cincy midway through the first. Betting unders is the equivalent to cutting off your own left hand with a wooden spoon - the dullest wooden spoon you can find.
10:17 a.m.: Stop me if you've heard this before: Chiefs touchdown. Betting against Patrick Mahomes is the literal bane of my existence. He is a cheat code.
10:22 a.m.: I only have one over bet today, so my opportunities to pounce up from my seat when my game pops up on "RedZone" are limited. The Giants get into the actual red zone, and on the first play score a touchdown courtesy of Saquon Barkley. Have you ever seen his quads? I have a tough time believing they're real.
10:25 a.m.: I typically love taking non-conference overs just based on unfamiliarity (and because they're odd matchups). I went against the grain on the Bengals-Panthers game and will likely pay the price for it. 7-7 with time left in the first quarter.
10:28 a.m.: The Bills are up 17-0 (!) on the Vikings in the first quarter. Imagine if you laid the 16.5 with Minnesota. You're already done!
10:35 a.m.: The 49ers commit a pass interference penalty in the end zone on third-and-16, and just like that it's 14-0. I don't know if I ever want to bet against the Chiefs again this season.
10:43 a.m.: The Giants tack on a field goal to make it 10-3 with a little more than 10 minutes left in the second. Not a terrible pace - I just hope Deshaun Watson does the thing where he starts heaving 68-yard missiles to Will Fuller.
10:50 a.m.: 14-7 Panthers early in the second. I didn't even have a chance to have fun in that one.
10:53 a.m.: The 49ers are finally on the board, and it's 14-7 Chiefs in the second. I honestly thought Jimmy Garoppolo would feast on this Kansas City defense and I'm hoping he's just getting started. Mahomes and Andy Reid are probably ecstatic that the 49ers scored - like, "Perfect, now we can drive the length of the field in under two minutes to get this back to a 14-point lead." I'm sick!
10:56 a.m.: Check the timestamp - the Chiefs are already back in the red zone. This is unbearable!
10:58 a.m.: Mahomes is unreal. 21-7. That Chiefs regression train won't be leaving the station this week.
11:03 a.m.: The Giants move the ball but have to settle for another field goal. Get Aldrick Rosas off my screen and give me Odell Beckham celebrating touchdowns. 13-3 Giants with some time left in the second.
11:05 a.m.: 14-14 in the Bengals game. I'm chalking that one up as a loss, mainly because the quicker I stop investing, the happier my heart can be.
- 49ers +6.5
- Giants/Texans over 42
- Bengals/Panthers under 44.5 ✖
- Cardinals +5.5
- Chargers +7
11:15 a.m.: Chiefs up 28-7. I'm pretty close to chalking that one up, too.
11:16 a.m.: A wild glimmer of hope appears! The Giants score to go up 20-3 with 2:14 left in the second. What I'd do for another score here before the half (hint: I'd sacrifice body parts).
11:25 a.m.: TAKE MY SPLEEN, I DON'T NEED IT. 20-6 Giants at halftime after the Texans add a field goal. We need 17 in the second half? Bust out the energy drink.
11:31 a.m.: This is Alex's soul typing. Patrick Mahomes put Alex on his deathbed. It's 35-7. He actually bet against the Chiefs? Can't relate. I would have been all over Kansas City, but, you know, I'm a soul.
- 49ers +6.5 ✖
- Giants/Texans OVER 42
- Bengals/Panthers UNDER 44.5 ✖
- Cardinals +5.5
- Chargers +7
11:49 a.m.: Houston's Ka'imi Fairbairn drills a 54-yard field goal to make it 20-9 midway through the third. Twenty-nine down, 14 to go. Let's get weird.
12:05 p.m.: Lamar Miller fumbles inside Giants territory with a little more than 3:00 left and there's a possession change. The sweat is officially on.
12:15 p.m.: Yet another turnover in Giants territory - this time Watson throwing an interception in the end zone. I'm sure if you looked up Murphy's Law, you'd find a picture of me in the fetal position.
12:24 p.m.: The Texans are back in the red zone with 10:00 left. Both teams have moved the ball just fine today, really to no avail. But the clock, it is a'ticking.
12:29 p.m.: A touchdown gets negated by an offensive hold. This is maddening.
12:31 p.m.: For the first time in eternity we have life. The Texans score midway through the fourth ... but they don't convert on the 2-point conversion. 20-15. You can only laugh at this point.
12:45 p.m.: HEY, OK! Giants drive the length of the field and score a touchdown to push the total of 42. Considering how the day has gone, I'll take it. Might there be a backdoor touchdown looming? Gimme the free adrenaline!
12:58 p.m.: The backdoor gods take over, and they left it wide open for us. It's fourth-and-goal with 10 seconds left and Houston scores a touchdown. The flag on the play? Defensive holding. GIVE ME THAT DUB. Best win of the season, and it's not close.
- 49ers +6.5 ✖
- Giants/Texans OVER 42 ✔
- Bengals/Panthers UNDER 44.5 ✖
- Cardinals +5.5
- Chargers +7
1:12 p.m.: Betting against the Rams' offense isn't very fun. I'll take a Todd Gurley fumble on the opening possession, though. Go Bolts! Should have worn the powder blue jerseys. They would have won by 70.
1:23 p.m.: Rams go up 7-0. Not an ideal start to the afternoon slate.
1:31 p.m.: Here's something I do like: The Cardinals move down the field with ease and go up 7-0 early. Will it be laughable three hours from now that Mitchell Trubisky was giving 5.5 on the road? I sure hope so.
1:32 p.m.: CHARGERS TOUCHDOWN, INJECT IT. Nice missed extra point, though. Surely, that won't come back to haunt me.
1:40 p.m.: The Rams answer right back and all of a sudden it's 14-6. If this gets into a shootout, I actually think I like the Chargers more. Philip Rivers loves playing with the Chargers down a billion.
1:43 p.m.: Cardinals hold the Bears to a field-goal attempt and they miss it. It must have been that dry heat in Glendale (Cardinals play in a dome, but whatever, when you live in Arizona you hear this from every Uber driver).
1:51 p.m.: Touchdown, Cardinals. They actually made Trubisky a 5.5-point favorite on the road HAHAHA.
1:59 p.m.: Derwin James picks off Jared Goff and the Chargers get the ball. That extra point, I swear.
2:04 p.m.: Rams block a punt for a touchdown. The Chargers are the most volatile team in the NFL, my column:
2:19 p.m.: I knew it was coming. Once Rivers starts yelling at his offensive teammates between plays, the Chargers are good for a quick score. Melvin Gordon with a house call and it's 21-13 with a couple minutes left in the second. Keep chirping, Phil.
2:31 p.m.: Somewhat of a trade-off here: The Rams miss a field goal before halftime to keep the score at 21-13. Meanwhile, the Bears cut the lead to 14-3 on a fourth-down play right around the two-minute warning. We can still spot two touchdowns in the latter.
2:53 p.m.: Keenan Allen fumbles the ball away and three Rams plays later, it's 28-13. That is a very "Chargers" sequence, so we're not exactly surprised in this household.
3:02 p.m.: Back and forth and back and forth and back and forth. Chargers score on fourth down, making it 28-20. Rivers was barking ferociously at his receivers to line up properly as the play clock was winding down. I knew we were OK.
3:12 p.m.: Rams touchdown. It's just too easy.
3:26 p.m.: The Bears are all of a sudden making a little surge here. It's 14-10 with around six minutes left in the third. One more touchdown by the Cardinals and I think it gets there, but that would require Arizona's offense to do something meaningful, which hasn't happened very often today.
3:34 p.m.: Chargers settle for a field goal at the 12-minute mark of the fourth. That's not going to cut it, folks.
3:35 p.m.: Bears intercept Sam Bradford and this one is starting to become a sweat. Between that, the Texans game, and the Chargers, it's been that kind of a day.
3:45 p.m.: Bears score their 13th unanswered point and I'm officially tilted. But the Chargers finally got a stop, so these games have, somehow, completely shifted.
3:48 p.m.: Chargers get stopped on fourth down with 4:30 left. It appears we need the good ole patented stop-and-score backdoor touchdown.
3:54 p.m.: Bradford fumbles inside Bears territory. Love this team.
3:59 p.m.: A Rams first down salts it away. I am sad.
- 49ers +6.5 ✖
- Giants/Texans OVER 42 ✔
- Bengals/Panthers UNDER 44.5 ✖
- Cardinals +5.5
- Chargers +7 ✖
4:02 p.m.: A Cardinals personal foul extends the Bears' drive. The field is so tilted right now it's laughable.
4:08 p.m.: Whew. The Cardinals hold the Bears to a field goal. It's 16-14 with 4:31 left. I just need to avoid mayhem. That's it. Oh, and Josh Rosen is coming in for Arizona. So there's that.
4:22 p.m.: Rosen throws a pick at the Bears' 32 with 1:10 left. Arizona has three timeouts. I need the victory formation, Matt Nagy. I need it.
4:26 p.m.: The Bears will punt with 55 seconds left. My poor heart, it hurts right now. You know what, Cardinals? I think you should just kneel it. You don't want to put Rosen in a critical situation and deflate his confidence, right? Have to think long term here and just drain the clock and get out of there with a two-point loss, you know?
4:29 p.m.: The Bears just had a pick-6 ... called back due to an offside. I cannot do this right now.
4:31 p.m.: A looooong sigh of relief. Rosen sacked, clock runs out, game over.
- 49ers +6.5 ✖
- Giants/Texans OVER 42 ✔
- Bengals/Panthers UNDER 44.5 ✖
- Cardinals +5.5 ✔
- Chargers +7 ✖
Obviously, not the result I wanted after two big weekends. Nonetheless, the backdoor touchdown from the Texans and a game that produced a sweat only to cross the finish line made for a small losing day.
I will now attempt to sleep without having nightmares of Mahomes throwing 40-yard darts down the middle of the field for walk-in touchdowns.
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.