Week 4 NFL Betting Diary: Who needs fast starts anyway?

Each week, theScore's betting writer, Alex Kolodziej, will share a running diary of his Sunday experiences. Here's his fourth edition (all times PT):

6:30 a.m.: People think I'm crazy when I tell them I lock in most - if not all - of my plays for Sunday on Tuesday or Wednesday. It's as much about beating the market before numbers settle as it is the anxiety of leaving plays on the table and not being able to focus the rest of the week. I prefer to submit everything early, and then sit cross-legged in a dark room with my eyes closed, envisioning every over bet hitting by the second quarter. A kid can dream.

7:00 a.m.: I'm still looking for back-to-back winning days in college football and the NFL. And after a small positive day in Week 5 of NCAA football on Saturday, there's an opportunity for that on Sunday. Here's what I'm rolling with for Week 4 of the NFL, barring any later adds:

• Lions-Cowboys over 43.5
• Saints -3
• Eagles-Titans over 41
• Jets-Jaguars over 39

The last play was an add on Sunday morning. You can whine all you want:

"Wahhhh, it's a rookie quarterback against the Jaguars' defense. What are you doing?!"

I play numbers, not teams. What happens if Sam Darnold throws pick-6s all afternoon long? Exactly.

Also, a number of people asked me if I trust the Titans' offense given Marcus Mariota's injury. Too late; it's already locked in, and I can't go back. I'm not sure he'll be able to throw a ball past the line of scrimmage, but we're sure as heck going to find out.

10:05 a.m.: The first update on RedZone is Kerryon Johnson busting a huge run for the Lions. That over was my favorite play of the day. However, the offense stalls out and a promising start goes for nothing. Whenever you can punt from the opponent's 40-yard line on fourth-and-7, you have to do it.

10:10 a.m.: I accidentally peeped the bottom line and saw the Titans had notched a field goal early. Seeing scores on Sunday before they happen on RedZone is a mortal sin. Again, I'm all RedZone. At least Mariota is 3-for-5 passing with 44 yards, so his arm is indeed attached to his shoulder.

10:21 a.m.: The Jaguars took up damn near the entire first quarter and had to settle for three. Hot take: Field goals won't cut it on a day when I need points, and lots of them.

10:29 a.m.: The Cowboys make a field goal and we have 3-0 scorelines across the board in the first quarter of all three games. Not great.

10:41 a.m.: All the touchdowns are coming in the games I don't have. It's only 6-0 Jacksonville midway through the second quarter and still 3-0 in the other two. It's been 41 minutes of real time, and I don't have a single touchdown.

10:43 a.m.: Remember my mortal sin of seeing a score before it happens on RedZone? C'mon Scott Hanson, I pay unreal money for you to navigate my Sunday. I just saw the Lions up 7-3 and wish I would have watched it happen, but at this point, I couldn't care less. Finally, a touchdown.

10:59 a.m.: I have a strong feeling that I'm going to have to put all my eggs in the Lions-Cowboys basket. It's 7-6 with 11:00 left in the second and I don't have a single touchdown in the other two games. I love chalking up losses before the second half. In fact, a wise man once said he'd rather get smoked early than lose on the last play of the game. Actually, nobody ever said that, but it's my thought process, for sure.

11:01 a.m.: Lee-Corso-not-so-fast-my-friend GIF - Jaguars go up 13-0 right before the half. Can I really get four touchdowns in the second? Probably not, but I'm back to being invested, and I hate it.

11:03 a.m.: I just saw another score before it happened, as the Eagles go up 7-3 late in the second quarter. Could there be 31 in that second half? Unlikely.

11:25 a.m.: Halftime scores: Jaguars up 16-0; Eagles up 10-3; Cowboys up 13-10. Is there a win in there? Are there multiple wins? Who knows. All I know is that a friend at my apartment took the Bengals-Falcons over 51 and his game won in the first half. He has nothing to root for the rest of the morning! The joke is actually on him. Don't like to sweat? Wish I could relate.

11:41 a.m.: It's 18-0 Jaguars after a safety. I knew Darnold would give some points away.

11:59 p.m.: Eagles go up 17-3 midway through the third. Start chucking, Mariota.

12:03 p.m.: Cowboys score a touchdown with 2:59 left in the third to go up 20-10. Two more touchdowns until we get there. I need garbage time Matthew Stafford in the worst way.

12:08 p.m.: 18-3 Jaguars after a field goal; 17-10 Eagles after a Titans touchdown. Both games are late in the third. There's minimal hope, but hope nonetheless.

12:15 p.m.: It's a 67-yard touchdown catch for Donte Moncrief in Jacksonville. Need two touchdowns in the next ~18 minutes. NEED!

12:19 p.m.: Lions go right down the field and score to cut the Cowboys' lead to 20-17. It's still early in the fourth. Someone please score a touchdown, and someone please hit an extra point.

12:24 p.m.: The Titans take up no less than a millennium but settle for a field goal, making it 17-13 with under 10 minutes left. The push is likely out of the equation.

12:31 p.m.: You get a field goal! You get a field goal! And you get a field goal! Jaguars up 25-6 with 12:00 left.

12:36 p.m.: Jets force a fumble and are in Jags territory. Life!

12:37 p.m.: Cowboys come up empty inside the 5-yard line. It's 23-17 with 5:49 left. They actually threw a fade route to Rico Gathers on third-and-goal. I was dead, then I was alive, and I'm back to being dead.

12:41 p.m.: D-D-D-Darnold and the Jets! Did I do that right? Touchdown to make it 25-12 but the 2-point conversion for the push is unsuccessful. It's been a peaks-and-valleys type of day. Oh! And a Titans touchdown to make it 20-17 with a little more than 5:00 left. Do your thing, Mr. Wentz.

12:49 p.m.: GIVE ME MY COOKIES, SIRS AND MADAMS. And just like that, the place erupts. A Golden Tate touchdown makes it 24-23 Lions and that, my friends, is a win.

• Lions-Cowboys over 43.5 ✔
• Saints -3
• Eagles-Titans over 41
• Jets-Jaguars over 39

12:56 p.m.: The Jaguars were going in, and then fumbled in the red zone with a couple minutes left. The gambling gods giveth, and they damn sure taketh away.

1:03 p.m.: The Eagles just tied it up, 20-20. Great, now I have to sit through an overtime. I need a field goal. Or a safety. Or a point to push. I don't really care at this point.

1:08 p.m.: The Jaguars are inside the 10 with 2:00 left and they are running plays. Why are they running plays?! Are they trying to run up the score on Todd Bowles? Because that's hysterical.

1:13 p.m.: On fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line ... the Jags call a timeout with 25 seconds left ... and score a touchdown. Unbelievable!

• Lions-Cowboys over 43.5 ✔
• Saints -3
• Eagles-Titans over 41
• Jets-Jaguars over 39 ✔

1:17 p.m.: Titans field goal. Winner. Who needs fast starts anyway? Not I.

• Lions-Cowboys over 43.5 ✔
• Saints -3
• Eagles-Titans over 41 ✔
• Jets-Jaguars over 39 ✔

1:39 p.m.: Giants go up 7-0 in the first. I'll go out on a limb and say the Saints' defense is ... not good. Those jerseys, though? Goodness, make those the primaries!

1:48 p.m.: I'm not an offensive coordinator but something tells me you rarely want to be in a fourth-and-21 situation. Saints drive down and get a field goal on the board. Hey, if I'm going to lose money betting against Eli Manning, so be it.

2:08 p.m.: Another field goal for the Saints to make it 7-6. It's amazing how much less productive the Saints' offense is outside the dome. New Orleans playing outdoors is the equivalent to any other team slipping on some moon boots and playing on Mars.

2:20 p.m.: Like clockwork, another Saints field goal, 9-7. MARS, I TELL YOU. MARS!

2:40 p.m.: Saints field goal. 12-7. I'm laughing, but in reality I'm fighting back tears of sadness.

3:11 p.m.: Gee, what do you know, the Saints kicked a field goal SAINTS TOUCHDOWN, 19-7.

3:25 p.m.: The Giants pull their best Saints impression and settle for a field goal. I feel like I've typed out the phrase "field goal" more times today than in the last 25 years combined.

3:50 p.m.: Exclamation point? Saints touchdown, making it 26-10 late in the fourth. I think we're about to do this thing.

4:04 p.m.: I've been through hell today, so I can take a couple more beads of sweat. The Giants score with 3:44 left and convert the 2-point conversion. It's 26-18 and I'd prefer the clock just run out so I can eat solid food for the first time today.

4:11 p.m.: Alvin Kamara to the house for good measure. That'll stamp the envelope on the Saints -3 and the day as a whole.

• Lions-Cowboys over 43.5 ✔
• Saints -3 ✔
• Eagles-Titans over 41 ✔
• Jets-Jaguars over 39 ✔

To recap, I got a garbage-time touchdown because the Jaguars wanted to run up the score, a road team driving the length of the field in the last few minutes, extra time in Tennessee, and a team covering despite kicking field goals on more than half of its red-zone possessions. The 4-0 day is undeserving, but I'm not complaining; we all know the gambling gods will even things out one day.

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.