Top 5 betting plays for Week 5 of the NFL season
Another week of football, another card including multiple over bets and a recommended under that will likely be somewhere in the 60s by halftime.
I'm not in love with what Week 5 has to offer, so if you decide to tail, do so with caution. As always, shop around for the best numbers available.
New York Giants at Carolina Panthers
Wager: Over 44.5
The Giants continue to waste their talent on offense. Only this team could falter at home against a Saints defense that had been gashed over the first three weeks of the season.
One step forward and two steps back. That's how it's been again to start 2018. But the problem might be fixable, at least for one week. And it starts with Eli Manning.
There's some apparent frustration boiling over with the Giants - most notably, from Odell Beckham Jr. Can you blame him? The play-calling has been designed to free up a dangerous group of receivers, and Manning has gotten some decent protection. He just hasn't made his throws.
I'd be more gun-shy to take an over with an offense that is short on playmakers. The Giants are not one of those teams.
Offensive coordinator Mike Shula returns to Carolina, where he was the OC from 2013-17. I'm not saying there's a clear advantage for him in facing his old defense, but he should be able to put the offense in a position to succeed through the air against a secondary that hasn't been all that great against decent quarterbacks.
The Giants are making strides defensively, but I love the matchup for the Panthers on Sunday. The league's best rushing attack will face a defense that is giving up 126 yards on the ground per game, which ranks 29th in the NFL. New Orleans hung 33 on New York and settled for four field goals in the red zone last week. If the Panthers can move the ball at home, Cam Newton presents a threat inside the 20 as a runner.
Denver Broncos at New York Jets
Wager: Jets -1 and Over 42.5
Sam Darnold told reporters the offense is "going to click soon." And you know what, I believe him.
It feels like a millennium ago that the rookie was leading the Jets to a Monday Night Football road win over the Detroit Lions to kick off his career. Since then, Darnold and the Jets have struggled, going 0-3 as the quarterback has thrown just two touchdowns and four interceptions.
He might be the perfect quarterback for the Broncos to overlook Sunday.
Denver was the latest team to try to stop Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, to no avail. The Broncos put forth a valiant effort, but a late touchdown drive by Mahomes crushed any hope it had to suppress the league's top-scoring offense.
Now, the Broncos have to fly across the country for an early start to play a rookie quarterback and a team they blanked 23-0 last season.
What could go wrong?
A lot, actually. Denver's defense isn't the unit of years past and has a secondary that can be exposed. It's a small sample size, but the Broncos under Vance Joseph have played an early kickoff on the East Coast five times: they're 0-5 and are being outscored 33.2 to 14.6 on average.
I'm calling for the Darnold-led offense to not only click soon, but right away.
Extra Points
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles
Recommended Pick: Under 46.5
As much as I despise betting an under, I'll recommend one when the Vikings take on the Eagles.
I think we're getting too caught up in Minnesota's defense and how it's played the last two weeks. The Vikings let the Bills hang 27 on them at home in Week 3, but Minnesota gave Buffalo three scoring drives starting in plus territory due to turnovers or its own poor field position. Last week, the Vikings had no shot against the Los Angeles Rams' offense - nor does any other team in the league.
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
Recommended Pick: Cowboys +3.5
I wouldn't trust either team, but I trust Dallas more. Or, in this case, I trust Houston less.
I'm not sure what the Texans have done this season to be laying more than a field goal at home to at least somewhat of an average team. The offensive line can't protect Deshaun Watson, the defense has been reeling over the last couple of weeks, and the lone win was one that probably should have resulted in a tie.
There are still some 3.5s available if you fancy yourself a Cowboys backer this weekend.
Top plays: 9-2-1
Overall record: 13-6-1