The top 5 betting plays for Week 6
The approach to capping the NFL this season has been a fairly simple one.
I've mentioned before that finding the tiniest edge is tough in these parts. This season, the plan of attack has been buying low, selling high, and playing numbers, and that includes primarily totals. Over bets are currently 9-0 on top plays, which certainly ups the pressure to keep that record perfect heading forward.
I'm not going to change a thing for Week 6. As always, be sure to shop around for the best numbers available.
Top Plays
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns
Wager: Over 44.5
There's been more overthinking than usual this week. In the case of the Chargers-Browns game, it's somewhat justified. The forecast is calling for winds of 10-13 mph, a weather factor that affects totals arguably more than actual precipitation does.
I'm still playing the over.
Baker Mayfield has injected life into the Cleveland offense. It's a small sample size, but with the rookie under center, the Browns have posted 5.9 yards per play compared to an average of 4.2 yards with Tyrod Taylor leading the offense. Taylor played in a downpour in Week 1 to skew that number, but it's clear Mayfield has put a jolt in the Browns' passing game.
Cleveland's defense has been more lucky than good this season. The Browns are a top-half unit in terms of scoring defense but have been bailed out by turnovers and missed field goals. They've forced four turnovers inside their own 35-yard line and have also watched opponents miss five field goals from inside 32 yards. Teams have been able to move the ball against Cleveland, especially through the air.
The Chargers' offense - which is relatively healthy now - has been lethal under Philip Rivers. It's averaging more yards per play than the Chiefs, Saints, and Falcons this season. Los Angeles has benefited greatly from a sensational season out of Melvin Gordon, as it sits in the top 13 in both passing and rushing yards while hanging 27.4 points per game. Defensively, however, the Chargers are allowing a whopping 6.2 yards per play, as the absence of Joey Bosa has been a source of relief for opposing quarterbacks.
Wind or not, give me the over.
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
Wager: Patriots -3.5
The current Patriots roster isn't as lethal as years past. Still, I wouldn't pass up the Pats in a "revenge game" at home at the current price.
Patrick Mahomes continues to play out of his mind, masking the flaws on the opposite side of the ball. People continue to forget that the Chiefs give up 6.5 yards per play.
New England could struggle with Kansas City's speed and passing game, but the Chiefs are also in tough against Tom Brady and a rejuvenated Patriots offense that has put up 38 points in each of the last two games. I'm taking the Patriots at a price that's tough to come by for a prime-time matchup at Foxboro.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Wager: Over 41
My favorite stat of the NFL season is that the Houston Texans are averaging more yards per game on offense than the Chiefs.
Houston has benefited from two overtime contests to pad those numbers, but it goes to show that the Texans have perhaps the best offense that no one's really talking about. That's likely due to two things: they've been set back by terrible coaching and the red-zone efficiency has been hot garbage.
Last week, the Texans strolled down the field with ease against the Cowboys, only to settle for four field goals, three of which came on drives stalling inside the five-yard line. If there's any hope of breaking through in the scoring department, it could come against a Buffalo defense that is allowing opponents to score touchdowns on 80 percent of red-zone drives this year.
The Bills' offense is a tough sell. It, unlike most in the league, is not a throw-first team, with a project quarterback under center. The receiving corps isn't good and explosive plays are hard to come by. Then again, how would you sell the Bills on any given week to go over the total? It's all about the number, and this is one I feel is generous enough to take.
Extra Points
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets
Recommended Pick: Under 45.5
The Denver Broncos were caught in a bad spot last weekend at New York, on a short week and early kickoff on the East Coast. The Jets hit home runs aplenty on offense while Sam Darnold made some big throws to help the offense despite not putting up an otherworldly stat line.
I don't think it was as much about the Jets breaking through as it was the Broncos' defensive lapses. New York still has yet to string two good offensive performances together and Indianapolis' receiving corps is up there with Buffalo's as the worst in football.
That's too many points to expect in East Rutherford.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Recommended Pick: Falcons -3
This is strictly a buy-low spot on the Falcons. If you're telling me these two teams are even on a neutral field, I recommend paying to find out.
Top plays: 12-2-1
Overall record: 18-6-1
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.